TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side

[Kupsi]

When has Bitcoin ever had a sideways market, except on like the hourly chart or something?

it was crazy stable at 5$ for like 3 or 4 months

but that was because pirate40 was keeping prices low, as he sold other people's bitcoins.

When was that?

Mars, April and May last year.

[MoreFun]

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

[adamstgBit]

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

Kupsi is french?

[Kupsi]

Mars, April and May last year.

Anyone said Mars? I though we are going to da Moon...

Kupsi is french?

LOL, Norwegian 

[lucif]

[bitcon]

This is the first bounce after dropping from 110 to 65. You really think that means the downtrend is over?

no it hit 65 before that also.  that was the 2nd time.

[Hyena]

Seems that this topic is appropriate again let's see if we can get 2 more dots supporting the new uptrend and then it might be some serious indicator for bulls. However, it can also be the case that from now on bitcoin's price goes sideways and therefore pSAR isn't much of a use.

[vokain]

[Tzupy]

Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

[vokain]

Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

Really. Firstly, what's your definition of short term?
And then, can you please sufficiently elaborate on your claim? Otherwise it's just noise amongst the other guys (more often than not with relatively new accounts) doing the exact same thing you're doing.

[Tzupy]

I made no claim, just acknowledged the facts. If you look at the 10 days chart (short term), you should understand.
I agreed with you that long term (2-3 months), it looks up, so you don't have a valid reason to get pissed off at me.

[vokain]

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

[Hyena]

In 10 day charts the pSARs don't have much meaning in our ultra volatile market. In 5 months chart the current price has to drop down to 100$ in mtGox for the pSAR to flip again. That may or may not happen but this topic wouldn't make any sense if we updated it so often as the 10 days chart would suggest

EDIT:
Also, the price is still on the upper side of the Bollinger Band which means that this is indeed an uptrend that we are having currently and it can continue as long as the price stays in the upper side of the band (somehow obvious but still worth mentioning).

[notme]

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

[vokain]

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

[ElectricMucus]

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

1.02^100=7.245

[notme]

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

Exactly, he will either figure that out or go broke and disappear.

1.02^100=7.245

Okay, let's take a 2% movement.  First, we subtract 0.6% commission from both sides of the trade.  Now we have a 0.8% movement.  Let's assume for a second he calls 100 right in a row:
1.008^100 = 2.21847

Not bad.  Now let's assume he takes a loss on 1/3 of his trades instead of being perfect.

1.008^67*1.008^-33=1.311167

31% is still decent, depending on the time frame.

But wait, that is wrong because you don't lose 0.8% when it goes against you.  You lose the commission too, so you lose the full 2%.

Let's try 1/3 failure again.

1.008^67*1.02^-33=0.88726

Well shit.

What if he is 70% successful?

1.008^70*1.02^-30=0.964344249

Damn.  Maybe if he is right 3/4 of the time he can turn a profit.

1.008^75*1.02^-25=1.107989421928713

Yay!

But can he beat 72% correct that is needed to break even?

And what happens if a big move happens in the wrong direction because the short term indicators are still indicating the correction when it ends and the next large major wave up/down happens?

[ElectricMucus]

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh!

[notme]

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh!

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even.  (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

[ElectricMucus]

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh!

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even.  (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Anyway the 2% are just supposed a minimal profit target, the average is much higher since if a trade goes for you and your target isn't just gain based but also volume/time based.
Of course it depends on the general strategy, most traditional TA doesn't work with that, that is right.

But then most traditional TA doesn't work for me neither on a longer scale.