Today Jul10-2013, soon we will witness an extremely high jump in difficulty

[goxed]

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins

[crazyates]

1% growth is fine, for the next 6 months or so. I doubt it will grow that fast in a year or two.

[polrpaul]

I'm watching with popcorn.

[k9quaint]

Boom.
Even my pessimistic 1.5% growth per day is proving too optimistic.  

[EvilLizardApparel]

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins

I thought 150,000,000 around November...you really think 250-300million by October?

[crazyates]

26.2Million. Nice.

[mgio]

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins

It's not going to be anywhere near that high by October. I predict it will be somewhere around 50 million by then.

Here is why not:

- Butterfly Labs is shipping very slowly. They are not going to get through their backlog of preorders in 90 days like they promised. They probably won't even get through 25% of their pre-orders in 90 days. They are shipping very few singles and seem to have completely stopped shipping jalapenos
- Avalon batch #2 is done shipping now I believe. Batch #3 will likely ship soon, but there isn't likely be a batch #4. Batch #3 isn't really that many machines (compared to BFL pre-orders at least).
- Avalon chips look like they might be delayed too. And I believe people are underestimating how long it will take to get the first Avalon clones working and how long it will take to get them built and shipped in any significant quantities. We probably won't see them in large numbers until October at least.
- KNC might actually ship on time, but they aren't due to start until Sept or Oct. Anything could delay them and I wouldn't be too surprised if they don't ship until the end of the year.
- ASIC Miner will continue to ship their miners but even if they drop their prices, they are less attractive now because of the recent difficulty increases. ASIC Miner themselves will only add mining power as necessary to hover around 25-30% of the world hashrate.

I just don't see where 10 times the current hash power is going to come from in the next 3-4 months to get the difficulty that high.

Doubling is likely, but not 10+ times.

[frankenmint]

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins

It's not going to be anywhere near that high by October. I predict it will be somewhere around 50 million by then.

Here is why not:

- Butterfly Labs is shipping very slowly. They are not going to get through their backlog of preorders in 90 days like they promised. They probably won't even get through 25% of their pre-orders in 90 days. They are shipping very few singles and seem to have completely stopped shipping jalapenos
- Avalon batch #2 is done shipping now I believe. Batch #3 will likely ship soon, but there isn't likely be a batch #4. Batch #3 isn't really that many machines (compared to BFL pre-orders at least).
- Avalon chips look like they might be delayed too. And I believe people are underestimating how long it will take to get the first Avalon clones working and how long it will take to get them built and shipped in any significant quantities. We probably won't see them in large numbers until October at least.
- KNC might actually ship on time, but they aren't due to start until Sept or Oct. Anything could delay them and I wouldn't be too surprised if they don't ship until the end of the year.
- ASIC Miner will continue to ship their miners but even if they drop their prices, they are less attractive now because of the recent difficulty increases. ASIC Miner themselves will only add mining power as necessary to hover around 25-30% of the world hashrate.

I just don't see where 10 times the current hash power is going to come from in the next 3-4 months to get the difficulty that high.

Doubling is likely, but not 10+ times.

we wish to everything you're right except the thing is that....its inevidable that the difficulty will hit an exponential growth rate specifically when market forces allow mining companies to have plenty of stock to sell.  I'd have like 10 miners by now if I could because of the returns on it...like the person above said, its sort of controlled at the moment as companies race to make a superior asic...bfl will probably show a large jump soon I think we are being naive to think they will stay slow forever...if they can show an impressive turnaround they will have repeat purchases.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

ASICMINER is ordering 800 - 1000 TH of hashpower this year. Of course they are going to sell them for cheap.

[crazyates]

ASICMINER is ordering 800 - 1000 TH of hashpower this year. Of course they are going to sell them for cheap.

ASICMiner? Cheap? We talking about the same company? They've gouged customer's wallets at every corner, so I doubt they will be "cheap".

[mgio]

ASICMINER is ordering 800 - 1000 TH of hashpower this year. Of course they are going to sell them for cheap.

No, they won't. They are too smart for that.

Every miner they sell competes with their own mining operation.

It makes sense for them to sell them for as much as they can to the people that can't do math in order to keep their own mining operation profitable.

[mgio]

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins

It's not going to be anywhere near that high by October. I predict it will be somewhere around 50 million by then.

Here is why not:

- Butterfly Labs is shipping very slowly. They are not going to get through their backlog of preorders in 90 days like they promised. They probably won't even get through 25% of their pre-orders in 90 days. They are shipping very few singles and seem to have completely stopped shipping jalapenos
- Avalon batch #2 is done shipping now I believe. Batch #3 will likely ship soon, but there isn't likely be a batch #4. Batch #3 isn't really that many machines (compared to BFL pre-orders at least).
- Avalon chips look like they might be delayed too. And I believe people are underestimating how long it will take to get the first Avalon clones working and how long it will take to get them built and shipped in any significant quantities. We probably won't see them in large numbers until October at least.
- KNC might actually ship on time, but they aren't due to start until Sept or Oct. Anything could delay them and I wouldn't be too surprised if they don't ship until the end of the year.
- ASIC Miner will continue to ship their miners but even if they drop their prices, they are less attractive now because of the recent difficulty increases. ASIC Miner themselves will only add mining power as necessary to hover around 25-30% of the world hashrate.

I just don't see where 10 times the current hash power is going to come from in the next 3-4 months to get the difficulty that high.

Doubling is likely, but not 10+ times.

we wish to everything you're right except the thing is that....its inevidable that the difficulty will hit an exponential growth rate specifically when market forces allow mining companies to have plenty of stock to sell.  I'd have like 10 miners by now if I could because of the returns on it...like the person above said, its sort of controlled at the moment as companies race to make a superior asic...bfl will probably show a large jump soon I think we are being naive to think they will stay slow forever...if they can show an impressive turnaround they will have repeat purchases.

What mining company has plenty of stock to sell?

None of them do. None of them have ANY stock right now in fact. ASIC Miner will begin shipping again soon shortly but neither BFL nor Avalon have excess stock they can sell now. It's all just pre-orders.

I don't doubt that we are going to see a huge jump in difficulty. I just don't think it is going to happen in the next 3 months.

[goxed]

I guess my predictions were not too off

[jamesc760]

^^^^^^ Word!

Listen to the OP, people! Difficulty will be around 300 Million by the end of the 2013.

[smoothie]

Last diff went from 31 M to 37 M.

We're headed towards 31 M jump in a single difficulty adjustment soon.

[Hfleer]

Next difficulty estimated at 44 million so far, it's still some number of days away so could get a bit higher even.  Could see quite a nice jump this time.

[NR3000]

will be 47m.. 10m jump

[Quantus]

On the upside, the next halving day will come sooner.

[reactor]

On the upside, the next halving day will come sooner.

NOOOOO! Don't talk about this, nobody wants to hear about this because there is no answer to what happens to Bitcoin when mining ROI suddenly takes a 50% hit.

[goxed]

I guess my predictions were not too off

It's increasing pretty much as I predicted.