Today Jul10-2013, soon we will witness an extremely high jump in difficulty

[af_newbie]

... what happens to Bitcoin when mining ROI suddenly takes a 50% hit.

ASICs will eventually make mining marginally profitable.  ROI will be in the 1 yr+ range.
The good news (if you can call it good) is that profit margins of h/w manufactures will be razor thin.  More competition, better customer service.  No more Yifus to deal with.

Eventually, the profit margins for both mining and h/w makers will go down to big fat ZERO and this will be the end of bitcoin.

Unless entities (private foundations, banks, governments, h/w manufacturers) adopt bitcoin and protect it via "at loss" mining operations.

One thing is for sure, without mining there will be no bitcoin.

BTW, OP is right on the money.  Maybe a little conservative, but right on the money.  Bitfury will add thousands of TH/s

[goxed]

Estimated difficulty level is now upwards of 100Million in the next adjustment

[smoothie]

OP did a nice call. Likely will end October between 200 and 300 million.

[goxed]

OP did a nice call. Likely will end October between 200 and 300 million.

Thanks, looks like difficulty increase is on track with the prediction.

[goxed]

OP did a nice call. Likely will end October between 200 and 300 million.

Thanks, looks like difficulty increase is on track with the prediction.

And it's happening

[Dabs]

I made estimates for next year. Let's see how true they will be.

2014 Jan  1.013 billion
2014 Feb  1.519 billion
2014 Mar  2.278 billion
2014 Apr  3.417 billion
2014 May  5.126 billion
2014 Jun  7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

[Byteme]

I made estimates for next year. Let's see how true they will be.

2014 Jan  1.013 billion
2014 Feb  1.519 billion
2014 Mar  2.278 billion
2014 Apr  3.417 billion
2014 May  5.126 billion
2014 Jun  7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

O.o

[nwfella]

End of October is looking far closer to 450-465M imho

[Puppet]

End of October is looking far closer to 450-465M imho

Im not sure. That adjustment may actually be the last moderate one for some time, and more moderate than the upcoming one. It will be too early for HF to make a difference, and KnC may have finished their production run before that. BFL, Bitfury, asicminer, avalon etc they will all continue to add to the hashrate, but end of october may be the calm before the storm. End of november will get really ugly though.