Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

wait, you are still a BSV believer sgbett? 

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

Many think "success" is in $ price. Many think (and I once did) the goal of Bitcoin was to overthrow the system. That's semi true, but not in the burn it down sense, but more in the drain the swamp sense. Bitcoin is a virus, its incentive system is sublime, and shines light into the darkest places.

@exstasie I leave the title because its still in play! 19 Feb 2021 is the date I plucked from my ass, that is the date when I will be right or wrong - I'd agree that if it breaks the prior ATH convincingly that could spark a new phase of speculative mania. I really didn't think it would happen, but thats BTC for ya

@philipma1957 - the 16.5 top is a historical call... some 3 years ago. The argument now is about how badly wrong my "bottom" call is

@nutildah love you too xxx

[1715696932]

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[criptix]

Op just lock the thread and make a new one use different numbers and moderate it.


https://www.coinbase.com/price


top is 16700+


so you have a losing title.

How about  we will not get to 19900 and correct to 7777 sell sell sell?

Don't be a Donald and deny deny deny.

i would sell my left nut to get a chance of buying btc at 7777 again 

[Marquise$Museum]

Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.

[buwaytress]

Totally caught off guard there by that move, after last week's failed test of big wall at 17.2 I was really expecting a bit more stern tests but we're still seeing strange interest in creeping up to ATH. Aching for the correction but it ain't coming!

Suppose the holding continues at least until late start tapering off...

[sgbett]

Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.

Quite a fucking blow off, I just watched BTC sink from $19,100 to $18,800!  It was devastating!

Why did you move to another account? Your last account was too reputationally hobbled by shitty TA and wildly inaccurate price predictions?  

This feels even better than shitting on Trump supporters.


I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date. Seeing as how he's been something of a perfect reverse barometer for the market thus far, it seems like a fairly sensible prediction on my part.

sgbett's conclusions are what believing in plainly idiotic scam bullshit like BSV will get you. It's some sort of unfortunate cognitive dissonance at work, effecting the mind's ability to think clearly, for sure. Perhaps only rendering fully-grown adults who still struggle with defining moral boundaries susceptible.

due you are "winning" why so mad?

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin

[thecodebear]

Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.

Quite a fucking blow off, I just watched BTC sink from $19,100 to $18,800!  It was devastating!

Why did you move to another account? Your last account was too reputationally hobbled by shitty TA and wildly inaccurate price predictions?  

This feels even better than shitting on Trump supporters.


I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date. Seeing as how he's been something of a perfect reverse barometer for the market thus far, it seems like a fairly sensible prediction on my part.

sgbett's conclusions are what believing in plainly idiotic scam bullshit like BSV will get you. It's some sort of unfortunate cognitive dissonance at work, effecting the mind's ability to think clearly, for sure. Perhaps only rendering fully-grown adults who still struggle with defining moral boundaries susceptible.

due you are "winning" why so mad?

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin

You don't own any Bitcoin. You own a cheap knockoff of a cheap knockoff lol

I have always found your obviously terrible prediction of doom and gloom for Bitcoin hilarious in that it's all based on your prediction of the ascension of a cheap knockoff of a cheap knockoff. Bitcoin has been in an obvious bull market since April 1st 2019, from that day onward the idea that a bear market would suddenly come back and bring bitcoin even lower was well, hilarious. I also find it hilarious that you're "blown away" that Bitcoin actually did what EVERYONE expected it to do haha.

I mean good luck supporting BSV, I guess your best bet is it at least goes up with the rest of the market. It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims. BCH is already an order of magnitude lower against Bitcoin than it was in 2017, and BSV is about 50% lower than even that and even less relevant. It's never a good place to be when you're the even less relevant of the cheap knockoffs of something haha.

[gentlemand]

It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims.

They have 'Bitcoin' in the name and they're 'cheaper'. That is enough for them to last forever and more than likely make anyone who buys them in a lull far more profit than Bitcoin will. It's odious but that's human nature and that don't ever change.

[Torque]

It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims.

They have 'Bitcoin' in the name and they're 'cheaper'. That is enough for them to last forever and more than likely make anyone who buys them in a lull far more profit than Bitcoin will. It's odious but that's human nature and that don't ever change.

Same could be said of Bitcoin Gold, lol.

[gentlemand]

Same could be said of Bitcoin Gold, lol.

Yup. Any shitfork still alive and tradable will likely provide a better return than their daddy provided you run for it in time. I wonder if any dead ones will be revived. And let us not forget Bitcoin Gold outdid Bitcoin in volume in South Korea for brief periods. But the traders are all idiotic nutters there by the sounds of it.

[exstasie]

I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date.

Time is very unpredictable. It's the toughest part of trading.

I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

I just disagree with him now about whether it's still in play. He should have considered this idea dead once the February 2020 (and definitely the June 2019) highs were breached. Too biased.....

[nutildah]

I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

That's your opinion. If you think being off by more than 20% in a price prediction is "impressive," that just means you're easily impressed.

BTW, time itself is completely predictable. Its one of the most predictable things in the known universe. The rate at which carbon atoms decay has not changed for billions of years. If somebody makes a call that takes decades to manifest or never manifests within our lifetimes but afterward, is that call also "correct?"

[exstasie]

I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

That's your opinion. If you think being off by more than 20% in a price prediction is "impressive," that just means you're easily impressed.

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

We're talking about calling the bottom of a post-bubble crash before the bubble even popped. Most experienced traders wouldn't even bother making predictions like that because they are so speculative and the magnitudes in question are so large. So yes I think it's impressive.

Do you know of some better predictions from 2017? I'd love to see what a truly "impressive" prediction looks like.

Give it a try yourself regarding the next bubble. I'd love to see how close you get.

BTW, time itself is completely predictable. Its one of the most predictable things in the known universe. The rate at which carbon atoms decay has not changed for billions of years.

What does that have to do with predicting the exact time BTC will touch certain prices in the future?

If somebody makes a call that takes decades to manifest or never manifests within our lifetimes but afterward, is that call also "correct?"

You sure don't sound like a trader. I care a lot more about whether an idea is generally correct regarding direction, trend, and magnitude than whether it hits the price or time target exactly.

Things rarely work out exactly as planned. Markets simply aren't that predictable. Trading is more about getting things right in broad strokes and then using proper risk management to hedge against unpredictability. That's why it's so silly to say he's off by 761%, since we were trading in the $3,000s just months ago.

[nutildah]

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

The rest of what you wrote is just ignoring the fact that anybody can say anything, and does. If I make 100 predictions, complete with price and time, a few of them are bound to be relatively accurate.

sgbett was "right" (if you want to call it that) once in early 2018, he's been incredibly wrong on all fronts since then. But if you want to focus on the one time he made a "right" prediction and ignore all the wrong ones, that's up to you.

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin

Don't be like sgbett kids or you'll end up like this, a member of a bitcoin forum for 9 years yet still unsure of what Bitcoin even is.  

[exstasie]

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

The rest of what you wrote is just ignoring the fact that anybody can say anything, and does. If I make 100 predictions, complete with price and time, a few of them are bound to be relatively accurate.

Okay. All I suggested was that one prediction was relatively accurate, at least in regards to price.

sgbett was "right" (if you want to call it that) once in early 2018, he's been incredibly wrong on all fronts since then. But if you want to focus on the one time he made a "right" prediction and ignore all the wrong ones, that's up to you.

I was discussing that one prediction because it was the one being discussed. In fact, it was the prediction you were discussing.

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

[sgbett]

... I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfcS-uuI8A4

props to you exstasie for being objective, regardless of whether we agree!

[nutildah]

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

Even when I agree with you, you're still arguing with me? That doesn't make sense. I just said I can't argue with it. What more do you want?

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

Honestly I don't like it when people pretend a knockoff of a knockoff lead by an absolute fraud is Bitcoin. I understand they have a right to say that, and I have a right to ridicule them for it. Letting people shill for a scam uninterrupted here is not something I'm going to just dismiss. If you don't like it, just put me on ignore. sgbett also has that ability.

Regardless, its not me that's proving sgbett wrong, its both time and reality, and I don't know why you think I would care what you find tiresome. I just find it entertaining when people are simultaneously so confident and so wrong. Perhaps I'm just envious at that type of ability.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

[sgbett]

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

Even when I agree with you, you're still arguing with me? That doesn't make sense. I just said I can't argue with it. What more do you want?

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

Honestly I don't like it when people pretend a knockoff of a knockoff lead by an absolute fraud is Bitcoin. I understand they have a right to say that, and I have a right to ridicule them for it. Letting people shill for a scam uninterrupted here is not something I'm going to just dismiss. If you don't like it, just put me on ignore. sgbett also has that ability.

Regardless, its not me that's proving sgbett wrong, its both time and reality, and I don't know why you think I would care what you find tiresome. I just find it entertaining when people are simultaneously so confident and so wrong. Perhaps I'm just envious at that type of ability.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

But nutildah old boy, time and reality *are* proving me right. That you are not convinced of the evidence before your eyes does not make the truth anything other than it is.

The vigour with which you protest says much more than the literal meaning of your words. Of course you have a right to ridicule people, but what does exercising that right say about you? About your motives? About your thought process? About your world view?

I give thanks to Bitcoin, to the white paper, and to what I think will be a brighter future because of its technological advancements. Those technological advancements are no longer possible using BTC. BTC's value proposition is price. That the number will always go up. It's a trading vehicle, nothing more. People can speculate on BTC all they want - no skin off my nose.

BSV will continue to implement Bitcoin as it was designed, and really why should that bother you if you are so convinced that it is doomed to fail, or that it is a scam or that the Aussie man is bad.

Don't you think everyone will get what they deserve in the end?

Kleiman, McCormack, Zhao, Powell, Back... and so many others... all gloriously fighting for you the HODLers, out of the goodness of their hearts curse that time and reality... tick tock... my patience endures, you forget I've been a strident believer in Bitcoin for a long time and in that time I have learned a great many things and whilst I know more than most I dont confuse that with thinking I know all I need to know, because that kind of dogmatic belief can get you in trouble.

I link that thread because it highlights a point I want to make. That bigger blocks was just a sideshow, a distraction created by coreBlockstream to keep people arguing (as im sure you remember brg444 later became Blockstream PR) whilst they went ahead and co-opted development to build their side chain to leech profit. As was predicted by many at the time - not just me, and was loudly dismissed and then came to be. Even now people deny what is in plain sight, I suspect simple greed and lack of historical context. I've *seen* things, I see more things everyday because I have access to information that many people do not, that's why I am confident in what I believe.

Script is the real pearl in the oyster. Right there at the start of it all! That's why Ethereum was born. How many times must the pattern repeat before people see it. Vitalik (and others) saw the potential in Bitcoin - I didn't understand this until Craig gave his Arnheim talk yes he's uncomfortable to watch at times, but maybe people should look past that at what he is saying! Sadly, most refuse to - certain in their assessment of his character. The point is that core hamstrung that feature so Vitalik made his own (sadly substandard, because it doesn't scale the way Bitcoin does). Core refused to scale, so other created their own coins (LTC et al). Core introduced soft-forking so others preserved Bitcoin (BCH). I would go so far as to say that core are primarily responsible for the entire alt coin market. Ironically the one coin they are not responsible for is BSV, because that was Amaury Sachets doing! (Look at how he did it again recently lol).

I sincerely hope nobody buys BSV to speculate, because that is not what it is for. If you want to make money, build something using Bitcoin - you know, the old fashioned way, where you earn money for working, for doing things, for making society better. Rather than parasitically leeching off the system. There is a huge opportunity in the Bitcoin space right now building on metanet, some companies see this and they don't give a damn about what Bitcointalk thinks. Bitcoin is growing up.

[Torque]

I sincerely hope nobody buys BSV to speculate, because that is not what it is for.

I sincerely hope so too. I'm hopeful that BSV's demand is so low that BSV's fiat value can't even keep up with fiat inflation. That way BSV hodlers continue to get poorer and poorer over time.

But o' boy, they (all 12 of them hodlers) can at least spend their BSV on....well....nothing really.  

[nutildah]

Dear sgbett,

For some parts (you'll have to do your best to determine what goes where): Hmm... I see... OK... Well I see what you're saying, and now that I think about it I don't like it when people are dicks to me in my threads either, so I apologize for being abrasive.

Other parts: My honest opinion is you've fallen down some sorts of conspiracy rabbitholes after rabbitholes and I acknowledge there's not much I can say to change your mind, so Imma bow out and let you have at it.

Let's agree to disagree as the kids say, and peace out.

[sgbett]

Dear sgbett,

For some parts (you'll have to do your best to determine what goes where): Hmm... I see... OK... Well I see what you're saying, and now that I think about it I don't like it when people are dicks to me in my threads either, so I apologize for being abrasive.

Other parts: My honest opinion is you've fallen down some sorts of conspiracy rabbitholes after rabbitholes and I acknowledge there's not much I can say to change your mind, so Imma bow out and let you have at it.

Let's agree to disagree as the kids say, and peace out.

Heheh, thats nice of you to say. Certainly we can disagree.

You are right about rabbit holes. The first one I fell was the Bitcoin one all those years ago. Back then I frequented slashdot a fair amount, and the abuse you got on there for being pro-bitcoin was quite something just wait til you hear my views on covid they get me in some right trouble