Trading Bot Contest (Prize 1 BTC)

[pulsecat]

As the popularity of our Backtesting platform grows (~650 backtest sessions ran over last two days), an idea of trading contest came into my mind:
In brief, every participant should create a trading algorithm at Cryptotrader.org that will trade better than others over the period of the next week.

Round 1

Rules
- All code is backtested on historical MtGox data at the trading frequency of your choice (1m,10m,15m,etc).
- Only algorithms created before 07/15 00:00 GMT are eligible for participation.
- Any Cryptotrader API functionality can be used. The documentation is available under the "Help" tab at the website.
- An algorithm must be profitable at the period 07/15 00:00 GMT - 07/22 00:00 GMT. Also it must be more profitable than buy-and-hold strategy.
- Until 07/15 00:00 GMT participants post links to their backtest results (link should look like: cryptotrader.org/backtests/<session-id>) to this thread so that the winner can be further determined. At 07/22 all participating scripts will be re-run with initial cash deposit set to 1000 USD.  The author of the algorithm that performed best will be awarded with 1 BTC.
- Any kind of cheating is against the rules.

Feel free to ask any questions here. If you want to report a problem, please don't forget to provide link to the backtest session you used.
Have fun!

[1714482763]

1714482763

[whydifficult]

I like the idea! I already created mine

Couple of questions:

• We submit a strategy that will paper trade for 1 week in a couple of days? (And you can optimise it by backtesting before that week)
• So: I am supposed to keep the link private until after 07/15 00:00 GMT? Am I allowed to change the parameters during / after the week? Else I just need one now and optimise it after the week?
• Since the first round is about EMA indicators I take it that it is only allowed to change the parameters and not implement another indicator?

[pulsecat]

I like the idea! I already created mine

Couple of questions:

• We submit a strategy that will paper trade for 1 week in a couple of days? (And you can optimise it by backtesting before that week)
• So: I am supposed to keep the link private until after 07/15 00:00 GMT? Am I allowed to change the parameters during / after the week? Else I just need one now and optimise it after the week?
• Since the first round is about EMA indicators I take it that it is only allowed to change the parameters and not implement another indicator?

1. Yes, right. It is even allowed to post multiple strategies.
2. It is up to you whether you share your strategy or not. The author can be easily determined by post time in this thread. But it is not possible to change backtest parameters afterwards since each simulation run generates new URL so that changing parameters after 07/15 00:00 does not affect chances in this contest.
3. I removed that confusing title from the round description. Feel free to create your own indicators based on historical trade data (available in handle method).

[pulsecat]

Rules update
To avoid confusion, all participants should submit their backtest links untill 07/15 00:00 GMT.

[pulsecat]

Less than 5 hours before the trading period starts..

[medji]

Alright, here's mine: http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/X9shJ93XhBWDGmQQB

[whydifficult]

Here is mine

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/pojZycZDpDM62CZfQ

[pulsecat]

Well, a duel it is then!

[tabbek]

damn, saw this at work but forgot to submit one when I got home yesterday

[pulsecat]

Since today is Wednesday, it is time for status update:

medji's algorithm:


Balance: 10.253 BTC (1002.20 USD)

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/88J6oXqSKKagyFpJd


whydifficult's algrorithm

Balance: 10.126 BTC (989.84 USD)

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/x4tTjYBcQXX6Mmjcu


Buy and Hold strategy

Balance: 10.542 BTC (1030.45 USD)
http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/nmceC5kkk6cC4edzD

The results indicate that the buy-and-hold strategy has been more profitable so far.

[pulsecat]

damn, saw this at work but forgot to submit one when I got home yesterday

Before the next round starts, you can check the new features that include support for a lot of indicators from TA-Lib https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222696.msg2742473#msg2742473

[tabbek]

I'll be watching and waiting for the next round.  Still tweaking the setup I had before.

Hopefully this time I'll see it and post with enough time.  (found this thread an hour or 2 before the deadline :-P )

[pulsecat]

Results
medji's algorithm:

Balance: 926.72 USD

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/LugzQmh33t5MAtxPE


whydifficult's algrorithm

Balance: 844.89 USD

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/nYSZE3x2avjrcq4LC


Buy and Hold strategy

Balance: 10.542 BTC (969.62 USD)

http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/8MLEamYvr6FRj3cmK


As you can see, buy and hold won this round, so no one gets the prize.

[Diabolicus]

Hard to come up with a profitable strategy it seems.

Will there be a round 2?

[whydifficult]

It's not looking very good for the algos

I think this is a good demonstration to show how hard trading profitably is as the market continues to evolve. Of course it can always be fun to experiment with small amount, but investing can be like gambling when you are not into it.

[pulsecat]

It's not looking very good for the algos

I think this is a good demonstration to show how hard trading profitably is as the market continues to evolve. Of course it can always be fun to experiment with small amount, but investing can be like gambling when you are not into it.

I'm a bit more optimistic about the technical analysis and i think the results only show that these two very basic algorithms are less profitable than the "buy and hold" strategy in this period of time. But i'd agree that the creating a profitable trading strategy is not easy as it may seem.

[pulsecat]

Round #2 just started https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=261086.0