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Author Topic: Chill guys!  (Read 17146 times)
hawks5999
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July 05, 2011, 03:22:18 PM
 #61

I have been watching bitcoin with interest since it hit the $30 dollar mark for sometime. What really keeps my interest in is the people who defend this currency like it is the next best thing since microsoft. Most of these people are completly blind to all the negatives about bitcoin, and at the rediculous price each bitcoin is set at. They try and defend it, they want to control it. I also love the people who try and say they see each bitcoin being worth a whopping 1million dollars each.

Sorry Jr. but you can't say you've been watching since it hit $30 and refer to that as "for sometime(sic)". That means roughly 3 weeks. Even in Internet Time that isn't long. You should probably sit back and just watch some more before you try to come out as knowledgeable with 3 weeks of "watching". And BitCoins are useless as a world currency until they are worth at least US$ 10 MM each.

I love reading the thread and you see people defending  bitcoin with things like the Internet, and the WWW. These technological wonders offered something of actual  usefulness. Currently, and for a long time in the future, bitcoin will offer nothing useful other than a medium for speculators to gamble on.

And in 1995 what did the Internet offer other porn, sex chat with strangers, and stock quotes? Does your memory allow you to recall what people said about the WWW in it's first 2 years of broad publicity. An honest assessment sees the parallels as striking. And as far as usefulness, what is more useful than a medium of exchange?


Bitcoin is riddled with hackers, it is actually a hacker heaven, being that they can steal your bitcoins and there is nothing you could do. Could you imagine bitcoin in the mainstream household and having hackers around? Now instead of computer viruses stealing internet information, they will be wiping everybodies wallet blind. Nobody will use this currency in its current state. I also do not see them fixing these issues. You think the average person is going to encrypt their computers properly?

Again, see the Internet in the early-to-mid-90's. Recall The Net or Hackers? The perception of the internet/www was far more that of a hacker haven.

These arguments keep coming up from people with no memory and no vision. History and the future are more than 3 weeks worth of watching will allow you to analyze. Consider that you are now a luddite when 10 years ago you were probably cutting edge. Your time has passed old man (mine too, I'm aware). BitCoin will be like TCP/IP to those graduating high school this year. They won't be consciously aware of it, but it will underpin what they do on a daily basis.

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July 05, 2011, 04:50:13 PM
 #62

Seeing as so far I'm 100% correct, here's another lovely prediction from yours truely.

~1 month after we hit the $10 mark, the big mining ops are going to scale back, sell hardware, recoup costs. If they already paid off their hardware or are in the green then they are still going to be happy bunnies making a profit.

As they leave and the difficulty lowers, it will be more attractive to mine again. I say attractive, but I don't mean that as in to make a profit, I mean that you will be able to get a lot of coins again, they just wont be worth much.

I give it 6 months till something that's copied the Bitcoin concept and improved upon it comes along. Almost everybody left will jump ship to that. The marketplace forum will flood with people wanting to buy the new currency for BTC. The whole process then starts again with the new currency, though hopefully the improvements will make it more of a success story.

I like this post better than most, because you've actually put something in writing that doesn't sneer at the forum in general.

Okay, I'll bite - I already posted my analysis. I say we have until August. If we're above 5 bucks, I think your analysis will be invalidated. Time will tell...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 05, 2011, 04:50:54 PM
 #63

Seeing as so far I'm 100% correct, here's another lovely prediction from yours truely.

~1 month after we hit the $10 mark, the big mining ops are going to scale back, sell hardware, recoup costs. If they already paid off their hardware or are in the green then they are still going to be happy bunnies making a profit.

As they leave and the difficulty lowers, it will be more attractive to mine again. I say attractive, but I don't mean that as in to make a profit, I mean that you will be able to get a lot of coins again, they just wont be worth much.

I give it 6 months till something that's copied the Bitcoin concept and improved upon it comes along. Almost everybody left will jump ship to that. The marketplace forum will flood with people wanting to buy the new currency for BTC. The whole process then starts again with the new currency, though hopefully the improvements will make it more of a success story.


Lardy, Imagination helps see the future. Glad yours is intact.  There are two types of people, those that can see what doesnt exist,  then those that can only see what is, nothing outside of that.  90% are of the second type. Herein lies the failure of humanity, but also the benefit for the other 10%.  
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July 05, 2011, 04:56:01 PM
 #64

Seeing as so far I'm 100% correct, here's another lovely prediction from yours truely.

~1 month after we hit the $10 mark, the big mining ops are going to scale back, sell hardware, recoup costs. If they already paid off their hardware or are in the green then they are still going to be happy bunnies making a profit.

As they leave and the difficulty lowers, it will be more attractive to mine again. I say attractive, but I don't mean that as in to make a profit, I mean that you will be able to get a lot of coins again, they just wont be worth much.

I give it 6 months till something that's copied the Bitcoin concept and improved upon it comes along. Almost everybody left will jump ship to that. The marketplace forum will flood with people wanting to buy the new currency for BTC. The whole process then starts again with the new currency, though hopefully the improvements will make it more of a success story.

Hi

How many threads have you created saying the same thing?  A broken clock is right twice a day. 

Bitcoin is going nowhere and the value will rebound nicely.  Perhaps I will create ten threads advocating this idea like you have.

Hi
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July 05, 2011, 05:49:27 PM
 #65


Hi

How many threads have you created saying the same thing?  A broken clock is right twice a day.  

Bitcoin is going nowhere and the value will rebound nicely.  Perhaps I will create ten threads advocating this idea like you have.

Hi

That would only make sense if I was saying a different thing each time...

I have always said it was going down and I was always correct.

Considering there are only two options, up or down, you obviously always have a 50% chance of being right.

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July 05, 2011, 06:07:45 PM
 #66


Hi

How many threads have you created saying the same thing?  A broken clock is right twice a day. 

Bitcoin is going nowhere and the value will rebound nicely.  Perhaps I will create ten threads advocating this idea like you have.

Hi

That would only make sense if I was saying a different thing each time...

I have always said it was going down and I was always correct.

Considering there are only two options, up or down, you obviously always have a 50% chance of being right.

super simplistic dysfunctional market view.  seems youre leaving out about 500+ variables that play into market psychology and dynamics.
I think you will admit that thieves, hacks, incompetance has some bearing on this market, its not a two sided die, its weighted.
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July 05, 2011, 06:14:21 PM
 #67


Hi

How many threads have you created saying the same thing?  A broken clock is right twice a day. 

Bitcoin is going nowhere and the value will rebound nicely.  Perhaps I will create ten threads advocating this idea like you have.

Hi

That would only make sense if I was saying a different thing each time...

I have always said it was going down and I was always correct.

Considering there are only two options, up or down, you obviously always have a 50% chance of being right.

super simplistic dysfunctional market view.  seems youre leaving out about 500+ variables that play into market psychology and dynamics.
I think you will admit that thieves, hacks, incompetance has some bearing on this market, its not a two sided die, its weighted.


Of course it's weighted. We also have plenty of positives on the other side as well. Regardless, though, if you pick ANY side and stick to it, you'll still have a 50% chance of being right, or a 50% chance of not returning to this post.

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July 05, 2011, 06:22:49 PM
 #68

Seeing as so far I'm 100% correct, here's another lovely prediction from yours truely.

~1 month after we hit the $10 mark, the big mining ops are going to scale back, sell hardware, recoup costs. If they already paid off their hardware or are in the green then they are still going to be happy bunnies making a profit.

As they leave and the difficulty lowers, it will be more attractive to mine again. I say attractive, but I don't mean that as in to make a profit, I mean that you will be able to get a lot of coins again, they just wont be worth much.

I give it 6 months till something that's copied the Bitcoin concept and improved upon it comes along. Almost everybody left will jump ship to that. The marketplace forum will flood with people wanting to buy the new currency for BTC. The whole process then starts again with the new currency, though hopefully the improvements will make it more of a success story.

I'm actually hoping Bitcoin's price will drop. I fully expect a recovery in the future though. Bitcoin's concept will be improved. But I find it more likely that the improved Bitcoin will still be Bitcoin. Much easier to start from an already existing user- and codebase than to build it from scratch.
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July 06, 2011, 03:04:08 AM
 #69

BTC exchange rates on the other hand are still way overvalued, and still it's anyone's guess where they'll go next until the market matures.

Sorry jackwagon, I already have my strategy in place to deal with a potential speculative mania scenario.

I guess you are consistent in being rude too. Or should I be flattered because you think my opinion will move the market? You do realize that you come across as a scared, cornered animal right? That to me says that you are heavily invested in a precarious position. Not sure how you want to hedge that apart perhaps from volume trading on small bounces while generally going down, or has option trading started already?

Quote from: TraderTimm
I like this post better than most, because you've actually put something in writing that doesn't sneer at the forum in general.

Oh the irony Smiley

Quote from: TraderTimm
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

You might want to read that - it is quite informative. I'm prepared for both eventualities, massive gains or complete loss.

Are you?

You apparently keep misjudging me. How do you even know I have a position at all?

BubbleBoy's contribution is valuable. As I stated before, price should depend on real world value, speculative expectation is not tenable in the long term. When the economy is actually smaller than Dollar parity, anything like $15/BTC is ludicrously overpriced. The few reasons that keep the bubble from bursting are an immature market, small volumes and traders trying not to pop it while playing for small gains on volume. It could go any minute if someone decides to cash out.

As far as I'm concerned it would be better if the bubble burst quickly, we would go back down to somewhere between actual economy size (below USD parity) and $4 (tenable speculative expectation value) and then grew with the economy.

The sad conclusion from your statements is that you don't care about Bitcoin's future, you're here for the quick buck, with exit strategies in hand. If that is the case than you are no better than the banksters with '2BG2FAIL' vanity plates on their Porsches.
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July 06, 2011, 03:28:21 AM
 #70

As I stated before, price should depend on real world value, speculative expectation is not tenable in the long term. When the economy is actually smaller than Dollar parity, anything like $15/BTC is ludicrously overpriced. The few reasons that keep the bubble from bursting are an immature market, small volumes and traders trying not to pop it while playing for small gains on volume. It could go any minute if someone decides to cash out.

As far as I'm concerned it would be better if the bubble burst quickly, we would go back down to somewhere between actual economy size (below USD parity) and $4 (tenable speculative expectation value) and then grew with the economy.

How are you measuring the size of the "actual" economy? 

I think the two important indicators are network difficulty and exchange volume / price, both of which have been growing like wildfire.  "Someone" cashed out over a million bucks today, permitting others to cash in.  It was a down day, but held up quite nicely given the ceaseless cries of doom and gloom.  That it held above $10 is more evidence of the correlation between price and difficulty (charts in my sig), and that network difficulty is a reliable measure of the size of the economy.  I'll have more confidence of this measure if the correlation continues.

If you know how to reliably measure the "real world value" of assets, maybe you should tell Wall Street.  Speculative expectation has been setting the price of things like houses, oil, bread, gold, and stocks ever since civilization moved to from a barter economy to a monetary economy.  Why should the price of bitcoin be any different?

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hawks5999
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July 06, 2011, 12:50:10 PM
 #71

*crickets*

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July 06, 2011, 12:57:39 PM
 #72

Doh, 15$ now  Cheesy
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July 06, 2011, 01:27:06 PM
 #73

Your trolling vs my facts  Wink
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July 06, 2011, 01:29:38 PM
 #74



My prophecy of the miners leaving is coming true.


Your prophecy?  Of course miners are going to leave, the profit rate for mining will tend toward zero necessarily and as that happens all but the most efficient miners will turn off their rigs. It is not a "prophecy" but a certainty.

Let's see about your $11 prophecy for Friday... willing to make a bet? Or are your words empty?
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July 06, 2011, 01:39:30 PM
 #75


You apparently keep misjudging me. How do you even know I have a position at all?

BubbleBoy's contribution is valuable. As I stated before, price should depend on real world value, speculative expectation is not tenable in the long term. When the economy is actually smaller than Dollar parity, anything like $15/BTC is ludicrously overpriced. The few reasons that keep the bubble from bursting are an immature market, small volumes and traders trying not to pop it while playing for small gains on volume. It could go any minute if someone decides to cash out.

As far as I'm concerned it would be better if the bubble burst quickly, we would go back down to somewhere between actual economy size (below USD parity) and $4 (tenable speculative expectation value) and then grew with the economy.

The sad conclusion from your statements is that you don't care about Bitcoin's future, you're here for the quick buck, with exit strategies in hand. If that is the case than you are no better than the banksters with '2BG2FAIL' vanity plates on their Porsches.

Protip: Real traders, the ones who actually commit money and have a trading plan before they place a trade call this "standard operating procedure". Of course, making price predictions with no skin in the game has been a forum past-time all over the internet, so I'm hardly going to ask you to stop. We just made it to your 'ludicrously overpriced' target. Hope you have a stop-loss order in Smiley

I'm here for the long haul, and that means, until bitcoin conquers the world - or conversely, it withers to irrelevance. I do know, however, I'll be around long after you've gone. Believe it.


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 06, 2011, 02:48:34 PM
 #76

The price is going to plummet, the people that wanted to buy low have already bought low at ranges of $13-$17 thinking that is the low figure. As it goes lower they aren't going to be buying again because they already bought in thinking they were at the low.

I bought in almost $10k at that amount thinking it was the low figure. I may be an exception, but I still plan to continue buying in every two weeks, regardless of the price.

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July 06, 2011, 03:30:48 PM
 #77

Thats cause youre a fuckin idiot!

Either him, or you.
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July 06, 2011, 03:33:06 PM
 #78

The more lardy says bitcoin will drop, the more it rise  Cheesy
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July 06, 2011, 03:55:53 PM
 #79

Thats cause youre a fuckin idiot!

Either that, or it's because I have a sh*t-ton more money than you and that amount isn't something I'll cry over if I lose.
As for why I'll keep buying more? It's my long-term savings. I won't need this money until a year from now.

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July 06, 2011, 04:14:35 PM
 #80



My prophecy of the miners leaving is coming true.

Let's see about your $11 prophecy for Friday... willing to make a bet? Or are your words empty?

 I'd also be in on this bet
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