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Author Topic: Chill guys!  (Read 17716 times)
chuckypalumbo
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July 06, 2011, 04:43:13 PM
 #81

Where did lardy go?
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July 06, 2011, 05:14:49 PM
 #82

Hi

lardycake, lets make another 10 posts about it rising now...lol.


Hi
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July 06, 2011, 05:41:28 PM
 #83

Where did lardy go?

? Nowhere. Yet again another retard claiming I was wrong when we are still below the price when I originally posted the thread and I stated multiple times that we will cross $11 on Friday, yet its not Friday yet.

Seeing the mental capacity of the people posting here its no wonder they are so easily manipulated.

you know,that everyone don't believe you anymore?
so it doesnt interest anyone, doesnt matter what your sayin

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July 06, 2011, 05:46:31 PM
 #84

Maybe he figures he'll get 'raptured' before it pops through 17.

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July 06, 2011, 05:50:48 PM
 #85

By replying in this topic and Lardycake replying on your reply, this topic gets bumped up every time...
And that's exactly what he hopes for... Look at the patern!

This topic is going down in... 3, 2, 1... I'll be back when it is on page 2...

edit: Oh noes, I bumped it up  Shocked
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July 06, 2011, 05:57:29 PM
 #86

Doh, 15$ now  Cheesy

I find it funny how its actually the pro-bitcoiners that are jumping in at the tiniest little nugget in their favour...while they like to say that its the opposite. Extra funny because $15 is still $2 lower than when I made this post.

I said we would break the $11 barrier on Friday. I still hold this prediction,

Extra food for thought: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth-10k.png

My prophecy of the miners leaving is coming true.

The price is going to plummet, the people that wanted to buy low have already bought low at ranges of $13-$17 thinking that is the low figure. As it goes lower they aren't going to be buying again because they already bought in thinking they were at the low.


16$
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July 06, 2011, 06:00:02 PM
 #87

I think bumping is important on topics like this. Otherwise Lardycake's prognostication drops down a few pages and gets forgotten. Then new people come to the forum and Lardycake will make another prognostication and they will think "oh noes!!1! he sounds credible and reasonable. We are going down!!!11!!" and panic selling ensues.

Keeping this prediction front and center is helpful in that it provides some accountability for Lardycake... and the rest of us, too.

IMHO, Lardy is just another Nagle - he'll pop up - doom and gloom for awhile and then when he's proven to be wrong will disappear back into the shadows... under the bridge... where trolls belong.

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July 06, 2011, 06:00:32 PM
 #88

Doh, 15$ now  Cheesy

I find it funny how its actually the pro-bitcoiners that are jumping in at the tiniest little nugget in their favour...while they like to say that its the opposite. Extra funny because $15 is still $2 lower than when I made this post.

I said we would break the $11 barrier on Friday. I still hold this prediction,

Extra food for thought: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth-10k.png

My prophecy of the miners leaving is coming true.

The price is going to plummet, the people that wanted to buy low have already bought low at ranges of $13-$17 thinking that is the low figure. As it goes lower they aren't going to be buying again because they already bought in thinking they were at the low.


16$
16.3$
chuckypalumbo
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July 06, 2011, 06:02:51 PM
 #89

Where did lardy go?

? Nowhere. Yet again another retard claiming I was wrong when we are still below the price when I originally posted the thread and I stated multiple times that we will cross $11 on Friday, yet its not Friday yet.

Seeing the mental capacity of the people posting here its no wonder they are so easily manipulated.

You're a fool, and you'll be proven to be an idiot come Friday. Ciao asswipe
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July 06, 2011, 06:03:48 PM
 #90

Oh and I think it's also important to recognize that $11 on Friday is highly, highly possible if not probable. The trend has been for weekends to be AWESOME buying opportunities. But the long term trend (and I don't mean the 3 week trend - people here have no sense of time) is still up. Play the channels while you can as they can be profitable too.

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July 06, 2011, 06:11:06 PM
 #91

Oh and I think it's also important to recognize that $11 on Friday is highly, highly possible if not probable. The trend has been for weekends to be AWESOME buying opportunities. But the long term trend (and I don't mean the 3 week trend - people here have no sense of time) is still up. Play the channels while you can as they can be profitable too.

I've also noticed the weekend opportunities and have taken to selling into the weekend and buying on Sunday.  I think I'm just doing my duty to stabilize the price.  It's worked well so far, to the tune of about a 20% increase in BTC per week for me.  I'm sure it won't last forever though...

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brocktice
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July 06, 2011, 07:36:52 PM
 #92

My prophecy of the miners leaving is coming true.

Several of the pools got DDoSed or had technical problems this past weekend, including BTCguild (which was almost as large as deepbit beforehand), and people didn't realize it all weekend, so their miners were idling.

Again, you may or may not be right about the market, but get your facts straight about the hashrate.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

My #bitcoin-otc ratings: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=brocktice&sign=ANY&type=RECV

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July 07, 2011, 04:07:08 PM
 #93

Just a little under 8 hours until Friday (UTC). The closest to $11 is bitcoin-central.com's LRUSD trade at $13. Meanwhile mtg and th are >$15 with lows for the day at $14.50.

So Lardycake - just 32 hours to go for your prediction to realize. Anybody want to getting a betting pool going?

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July 07, 2011, 04:16:32 PM
 #94

So the price is currently higher as when lardycake made his first post, and he's still sticking by his reasoning? It'll be really funny when it eventually hits 30 again and he missed out.
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July 07, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
 #95

Not higher than when he made this doomsday prediction but well within the channel of normal trading. We've been in the ~14-~15 range for about 3 weeks with occasional spikes up to 17 and down to 11. So, really, an 11 prediction going into the weekend is not really prescient so much as just drawing attention to another good buying opportunity... SOP for weekends.

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evoorhees
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July 07, 2011, 05:51:50 PM
 #96

Yes I'm sticking with what I said.  Grin

But you won't take a bet on it?

How about this: if BTC drops below $11usd on Mt. Gox anytime on friday EST, I'll send you 2 bitcoins. If it does not drop below $11 during friday, you send me 1 bitcoin.

I'm a man of my word and I'll assume you are too. Care to wager?

Edit: you must respond in the affirmative to this post before Friday for this deal to be valid.
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July 08, 2011, 02:17:12 AM
 #97

How are you measuring the size of the "actual" economy?

Take a look at the Wiki list of companies taking Bitcoin and sum their total estimated turnover. Obviously this is highly imprecise since there is not a lot of information available, most if not all are privately owned etc. but I would not estimate more than a couple of million USD a year. Even that is highly optimistic because most are likely only taking a fraction in BTC right now (e.g. I would wager memorydealers currently loses money on promoting Bitcoin). The list doesn't contain any seriously large company, or even medium sized company that I can see. Tradehill proxying Amazon may be the largest, though I doubt they have had more than a few hundred customers for this so far.

If you take a highly optimistic 5 million USD, then at 7 million BTC the exchange rate should be around 0.7 USD/BTC now, not $15. Since it seems obvious there is a lot of work to be done before Bitcoin can even be technically conscionably accepted
by less than adventurous retailers (like Amazon), it will take that much time for the economy to grow by those numbers. Until then, the speculative ratio is over 20:1. If it goes to $30 again, that's over 40:1. $60? 80:1. How much is not ludicrous?

Quote from: bitcoinBull
I think the two important indicators are network difficulty and exchange volume / price, both of which have been growing like wildfire.

Neither of which reflect the actual economy size. As long as it's worth it, new miners will join, but they are speculating just as much as traders.

Quote from: bitcoinBull
"Someone" cashed out over a million bucks today

Are you looking at blockexplorer and a known exchange wallet address? Otherwise it could be anything but a cashout. It could be the exchange moving funds between wallets for all we know. If you're looking at the exchange turnover, how do you know it's not just a few traders trading the same balances back and forth? None of this has any correlation with the actual economy, which consists of people paying eachother for goods and services. Couple of years ago everyone thought mortgage derivatives consisted of real value too.

Quote from: bitcoinBull
network difficulty is a reliable measure of the size of the economy.

Obviously I completely disagree with this. By this argument the economy has grown incredibly fast over the last couple of weeks and will suddenly stop growing much between the next 2 increases (according to chodpaba's numbers).

Quote from: bitcoinBull
If you know how to reliably measure the "real world value" of assets, maybe you should tell Wall Street.

Hah, Wall Street is not interested in real numbers, you should know that by now. Some bank got sued by its own shareholders because they paid out almost double the bonuses (4+ billion USD) than they actually made (2-ish billion USD).

Quote from: bitcoinBull
Speculative expectation has been setting the price of things like houses, oil, bread, gold, and stocks ever since civilization moved to from a barter economy to a monetary economy.  Why should the price of bitcoin be any different?

Hopefully because the underlying system is more robust. As the real economy around it grows, bubble type activity should subside, but it does need to survive that first. If it fails on that count, Bitcoin will be remembered as a classic ponzi scheme, albeit a brilliant one.
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July 08, 2011, 02:24:36 AM
 #98

@bitcoinBull: you know the exchange rate does not reflect todays relevance but the expected value for time frames of maybe even years. so even if the market is as small as 5 million per year as of now with people speculating on a x15 growth in business within one year anticipating next years real value they are quite conservative with 15$/BTC as this would mean all BTC circulating and not like it is today where the exchanges have trade volumes of 100k/day and 90% being used as a store of value.

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July 08, 2011, 02:30:19 AM
 #99

Of course, making price predictions with no skin in the game has been a forum past-time all over the internet, so I'm hardly going to ask you to stop.

Not very consistent on the argumentation though. First I don't know what kind of strategy I'm using, now I don't know what I'm doing because I'm not invested. I guess the only way to win this game is not to play.

Quote from: TraderTimm
We just made it to your 'ludicrously overpriced' target. Hope you have a stop-loss order in Smiley

And you seriously think I'm 'losing' something because I'm not making a profit where one could be made? You obviously don't know anything about me, maybe you should stop speculating. Heh.

Quote from: TraderTimm
I'm here for the long haul, and that means, until bitcoin conquers the world - or conversely, it withers to irrelevance. I do know, however, I'll be around long after you've gone. Believe it.

From what I have seen so far you are here for the quick buck and need the price to go as high as quickly as it can for that purpose. Or wildly bounce around at least. None of which helps the Bitcoin economy in the long run.

And you are speculating on how old I am too I guess Smiley
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July 08, 2011, 02:40:57 AM
 #100

@bitcoinBull: you know the exchange rate does not reflect todays relevance but the expected value for time frames of maybe even years. so even if the market is as small as 5 million per year as of now with people speculating on a x15 growth in business within one year anticipating next years real value they are quite conservative with 15$/BTC as this would mean all BTC circulating and not like it is today where the exchanges have trade volumes of 100k/day and 90% being used as a store of value.

I guess you replied to me. I'm not saying the exchange rate needs to invariably reflect the current economy size (though it would be great if it did that), I'm saying it needs to keep within a safe distance to it, or you end up with a bubble that is far more likely to burst and destroy value for everyone. Also, as a counterweight I would pose the extreme risk in using Bitcoin as a store of value right now. The bankster thugs are only slowly waking up to this, when they get going tough times are ahead. That has to depress exchange rate and consequently either you are supremely confident in Bitcoin surviving in its current form so your investment is retained many years from now, or you're a fool. Or a speculator with an exit strategy that in his own words doesn't care what happens to the system itself, as long as he is covered.
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