Updated prediction of bitcoin price 4 weeks-4 years

[MarquiseMuseum]

1) Lightning network alpha is huge news, bitcoin set for mainstream adoption, long term bullish on fundamentals is strongest indicator

2) scenario 1: weak hand shake out between 7-9k by wall street sharks around futures launch also to strengthen institutional market control, last chance to get onboard before 100k and double down for profit$, this is the switch phase from early investors exit/institutional entry in the "bubble" wave formation

3) scenario 2: bottom was at 14k going to 100k with futures launch to shake out early investors and gain market control, sell 25-50% around 83-94k if you're heavy because after its peak at 1.6TN bitcoin will retrace to $400bn/$25k until late 2018 when its back to 100k, march 2019 target $250 to follow Macafees call $1m/2020. I would add that bitcoin will stabilize in the 1-4 million range from 2022 onwards and even in face of better tech bitcoin will always have first mover advantage and store of value consensus which no other coin currently has or will have. Future crypto will be heavy on utility, whereas bitcoin using LN will be de facto world standard currency

4) market is heavily manipulated and this is the new normal, welcome to bullshit wall street psy ops, use crowd sentiments and research to form your own opinon, don't get swept into emotional harassment by wall street stooges and media, they will crop up like weeds from now on, stay smart and follow your personal target, they are going to fix the price in 5 digit range to shake every techy out and then push it to $1m in the mania phase set to begin in 2019, the difference is I don't think this is a bubble and that people will simply profit massively whereas fiat cash holders will experience precipitous erosion of asset value as world migrates to digital currency standard and wealth transfer has to be on someones expense, this will remedy global debt crisis, bankrun on crypto expected, Japan in particular will see unprecedented wealth creation and reemerge as a high tech hub of the 2020's and finally pull out of deflationary spiral ironically using deflationary technology.

[cellard]

Overall a good prediction. I think after the several hard fork attempts (which were all obvious US government attempts to control the protocol) they have given up and after that they have passed future markets on BTC to try to short it, buy a dip as big as possible, and once they are loaded with BTC, they will pump it to $1million in following 5 years. If they can't control the protocol, they want to at least be a major player in the market, and they can control fiat to shake out weak BTC hands. At the end of the day 21 million coins is all that there will be, but there will be infinite fiat, so they can use the fact that fiat is accepted in exchange of BTC to take an huge position on BTC, then make it the world's store of value and global currency as well.

[btcone111]

Very nice piece of analysis thank you very much - we need more threads like this instead of BCH camp FUD or whatever other kind of bad materials.
Thank you

[dothebeats]

Points 1-3 seems to be very probable at the current state of matters. Though there aren't any heavy facts supporting these analyses, still the market is purely manipulated right now and the media is also adding noise to the already chaotic environment of cryptos. Heavy shakeouts will occur to gather most coins before the time comes that we are ready to push this baby over $100k. It's good to have a diversified holdings, but for now, the safest option is to go bitcoin for long. Thanks for a nice piece of post you got in here. Worth the read.

[Millionero]

focusing on different blockchain technologies to average risk, can someone recommend more unique blockchains?

Monero uses a different elliptic curve and different hash algorithm than Bitcoin (and a zillion alts) do.

[MarquiseMuseum]

Revising projected price in a few weeks down to 45-65 depending on how fast and from where the rally begins, then 75% retracement over a period of months or quarters before late 2018 100k.

Scenario 1: it's already peaked and we are going back to 3-6k

Scenario 2: rally begins from 18k towards 50 over a few days, could plateau around 37-42 and then make a push for 90 but I don't think so depends on momentum and news drivers.

Scenario 3: inching up from 16 to 22k where we establish formation, swing between 23-28 before pushing towards 90k, great sell between 84-92, retracement towards 20k until autumn 2018.

Hard numbers I am looking at is global 1,4TN, bitcoin 835B/gl 1tn or bitcoin 1,2TN. Called earlier top at 450b but was looking at bitcoin chart instead of global so I didn't catch it in time.

[MarquiseMuseum]

scenario 1 is not impossible.

[MarquiseMuseum]

Indicators that it might be overbought right now:

1) LTC peak like 2013

2) People looking at the graph seeing a duplicate pattern formation from nov 29/30 and dec 8/10 thinking it will just keep going, could be a big trap, things are rarely that simple in investments

[price hovering around 17k 2017-12-12]

for prospective investors: buy 10-15% of target at 17k and hold, invest more on 50% retracement and the rest on another 30-50%

[949miner]

Are you serious? do you really think that ethereum is going to crash because of that shit of cryptokitties?

5) Ethereum's going to crash and burn since it hit its transaction ceiling a few days ago with krypto kitties, sell all this is going to zero

it hasn't crashed, it went up by more than 35 percent during the last 13 hours, that is a huge start for this week (we are on thursday, lmao)

Anyway, i agree with your other predictions, but this one with ethereum has me on shock.. there is no way to see it crashing, ethereum is going up so fast at the moment.

[MarquiseMuseum]

it's overvalued by common measures for sure, so in the crypto space I expect nothing less than 200% rally to 150-180bn before any correction at all. Did not account for the mania that's going on so was forced to buyback part of the stake at 520.

[squatter]

Indicators that it might be overbought right now:

1) LTC peak like 2013

The price action in LTC definitely reminds me of 2013. It's sort of a "late stage rally." The smart money has been in this market for months already, after Bitcoin began its parabolic trend in July. Now mainstream investors are arriving in hordes and Bitcoin "looks expensive." So what other options are available on Coinbase? Ethereum and Litecoin. LTC got its pump..... ETH is probably next. That's my guess. After that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a nasty correction that shakes out a lot of newbies.

5) Ethereum's going to crash and burn since it hit its transaction ceiling a few days ago with krypto kitties, sell all this is going to zero

That's like saying Bitcoin is going to crash and burn because fees have risen so much. The situations are exactly the same. Everyone is paying drastically higher fees to use both currencies right now. But speculative hype is more important than worries about fees.

[MarquiseMuseum]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

[laluna24]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

This should be resolved because this high fees that deter for more adoption by the users should really be on focus. It is already consider for long term for gaining more profit. Thus, the prediction of bitcoin for upcoming years possibly would de double or more.

[MarquiseMuseum]

blow off top btc 24k, eth 980, then sell a little

alternatively: see my new post on x10 theory

[squatter]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

Aren't we already seeing mainstream adoption? Futures markets on CME and Nasdaq, renewed talk of ETFs. Coinbase hit the top trending app in the Apple app store. They're shilling Bitcoin daily on CNBC and there is now a Forbes offshoot called "Forbes Crypto." Not mainstream enough for you?

As much as people keep repeating that rising fees inhibit adoption, the price continues to rise. That's the most telling thing to me. In spite of the rising fees, the price just goes up -- parabolically. That means the market really doesn't care about fees right now. What they seem to care about is that there is only 21 million bitcoins, and they are quickly being mined out.

Can we complain? That's the monetary policy we signed up for. It's the gold rush 2.0.

[Millionero]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

Aren't we already seeing mainstream adoption? Futures markets on CME and Nasdaq, renewed talk of ETFs. Coinbase hit the top trending app in the Apple app store. They're shilling Bitcoin daily on CNBC and there is now a Forbes offshoot called "Forbes Crypto." Not mainstream enough for you?

As much as people keep repeating that rising fees inhibit adoption, the price continues to rise. That's the most telling thing to me. In spite of the rising fees, the price just goes up -- parabolically. That means the market really doesn't care about fees right now. What they seem to care about is that there is only 21 million bitcoins, and they are quickly being mined out.

Can we complain? That's the monetary policy we signed up for. It's the gold rush 2.0.

Major Litecoin rally right now because high fees for Bitcoin tx.   Is this a flash in the pan or the beginning a secular market transition?

[YuginKadoya]

I think this is a real accurate prediction, I've seen analysis about the upcoming Dip that bitcoin may take and it will be a real low value up to $8000 mark, but it will be a momentum for bitcoin to increase further up to $25,000 mark value, and Let's say it can make it even more because of a lot of new investor and the demands will increase indeed further more a lot will sure happen in that speculated dates and years that you have predicted.

[haroldtee]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

Nothing lasts forever and I do not expect the high fees to continue the way it is as LN is expected to solve that anyway. I am not sure if this is the reason a lot of investors are trying to put some of their funds into LTC or it is just another rally that no one knows where it is going to lead. After all, Charlie Lee has been saying it consistently for a while now that LTC will serve as the spendable digital currency while bitcoin will remain an asset.

Anyway, like the OP said, we are welcome to the world where manipulation is the in-thing but it is best to understand that whatever is going to happen now or in the future, it is better to still hold and not give the wall street dudes a chance to get an upper hand in the market by shaking off weak hands. I believe upcoming weeks will be a tug of war and the market is going to really get interesting.

[beerlover]

High fees is a fundamental factor that might deter mainstream adoption, if we decide to value bitcoin on network effects then its important to consider long term

In fact, right now, high fee is actually the least of my worries and I am sure that would be a thing of the past in the long run. However, the points that the OP stated are really some valid points with the entrance of the wall street guys.

We may say what they are doing is gambling, but we all know these are some high bitchy manipulators which is the normal thing they do for a living and how that is really going to affect the market in the long run is what matters now and only if people would understand their mission. Unfortunately, the market is centered on greed right now and I hope new investors will really not get shaken off eventually.

[Kevin77]

I think this is a real accurate prediction, I've seen analysis about the upcoming Dip that bitcoin may take and it will be a real low value up to $8000 mark, but it will be a momentum for bitcoin to increase further up to $25,000 mark value, and Let's say it can make it even more because of a lot of new investor and the demands will increase indeed further more a lot will sure happen in that speculated dates and years that you have predicted.

This would be the moment some investors will be waiting for anyway and I would see that as a chance to quickly buy in more for those that missed out from the entire rally. I am pretty sure demand will increase in the long run and it would be a good thing for investors to understand when some of this things end up occurring that this is a dip that may not last for so long.

It is a speculative market quite alright and no one can really predict the future but the OP raised some points and definitely one of them must happen.