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今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗?
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Topic: 今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗? (Read 153 times)
Duckling
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今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗?
December 08, 2017, 04:25:27 PM
#1
昨日,比特币价格在全球各大主要交易所已经全面突破100000元人民币,最近三个月涨幅超过400%,今年以来涨幅更是超过20倍。从“一币一披萨”到“一币一嫩模”再到“一币一捷达”,币圈人吹的牛逼一个个成为现实,“一币一别墅”早已不再是遥不可及的梦想。
作为一种总量有限的“通缩货币”,同时作为数字货币的“创世纪”始祖,比特币持续上涨有其内在动力,尤其是最坚定的比特币支持者,把他们挺过了之前的币值崩盘看作是一种骄傲,而比特币价格在屡创历史新高后,更坚定了他们看多的信心,这些虔诚的信徒将比特币的价值和未来视为一种信仰,他们从来就是只买不卖,让市面上的比特币始终呈现出稀缺状态。
但近几个月的疯狂用这些常规理念来解释已经不够了。笔者看来还有至少三个重要原因推动现阶段比特币价格的非理性繁荣:
1、 比特币会“生儿子”。自今年8月份比特币生出比特现金(BCC)之后,比特币陆陆续续生出类似比特黄金、比特钻石等七八个币种。对于比特币持有者来说这好比是巨额分红,每分叉出一种币都可以拿到境外交易所或者通过场外交易卖钱,而分叉产生的巨大赚钱效应又推动比特币价格进一步上涨。分叉已经成为了币圈发家致富的捷径,越来越多的团队来分叉比特币,最近将要生出的儿子竟然叫比特币王者,将于12月25日在比特币区块高度499999时分叉,1个比特币赠送1个比特币王者(BCK)。
2、 地缘政治因素。在经济衰败、局势动荡的委内瑞拉、津巴布韦等国家,富人们通过大量买入比特币避险和转移资产,促使当地币价远高于全球主要交易所价格进而又拉动全球整体币价;东北亚的军事演习、核试验还有某国领导喊话制造的紧张局势则一次又一次将日本、韩国这两个比特币交易大国的做多情绪点燃。
3、 华尔街入局。12月1日,美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)宣布正式批准关于芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)、芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)以及Cantor交易所的比特币期货上市请求,而高盛(Goldman Sachs)也计划推出比特币期货交易清算服务。这意味着比特币开始得到华尔街国际主流金融资本的认同。
正所谓“无限风光再险峰”,投资利润最大化都是在泡沫时期实现,充分享受“吹泡泡”带来的财富膨胀是赚大钱的根本所在,能持币持有到今天的币友都是人生赢家。但是笔者认为,现在已经到了逐步减仓的时候。多重利好往往酝酿着历史大顶,这在金融市场是颠簸不破的真理。没有只涨不跌的东西,正向自我循环终究被打破,亢奋情绪最终将以价格的反复腰斩坠入深渊而惨淡收场。
前文所述的三个利好因素并非可持续的,现在却被严重过度预期。首先,比特币分叉已经“超生”了,类似ICO,”把戏不可久玩”,为了分叉而分叉实质就是庞氏骗局,最终将带来灾难性后果甚至重创比特币本身;其次,局部的动荡无法改变和平与发展的时代大局,世界大战打不起来,常言道“叫猫不捉老鼠”,越是叫嚣的厉害实际行动的可能性就越小,而几个小国的资金避险需求根本不足以对比特币大盘构成实质支撑;最后,比特币期货在CME、CBOE上线之时,很有可能就是币价逆转之日,华尔街大鳄利用期货攫取比特币的定价权之后,距离控制币价波动然后收割富得流油的矿主们的日子也就不远了……
Tracynodoudou
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Re: 今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗?
December 09, 2017, 01:12:24 AM
#2
从“一币一披萨”到“一币一嫩模”再到“一币一捷达”,币圈人吹的牛逼一个个成为现实,“一币一别墅”早已不再是遥不可及的梦想。
zhangswujip
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Activity: 309
Merit: 250
⇾
Re: 今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗?
December 09, 2017, 08:34:14 AM
#3
从我去年了解比特币开始,比特币就已经涨了近40倍。最近涨幅太吓人了,如果我有比特币我会卖掉吧,感觉有泡,而且会有一次大调整,下跌后再买。
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今年暴涨了20多倍的比特币还能继续持有吗?
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