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比特币暴涨元凶起底:持币者囤积惜售 加剧供给不足
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Topic: 比特币暴涨元凶起底:持币者囤积惜售 加剧供给不足 (Read 146 times)
EngWinston
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比特币暴涨元凶起底:持币者囤积惜售 加剧供给不足
December 09, 2017, 04:11:13 AM
#1
比特币暴涨使得持有者惜售。分析人士认为,这种现象背后需看到的是,比特币呈现出历史罕见的通缩特征,“囤积客”通过推迟消费并持有比特币,正是能够在未来获得更大购买力的合理选择。
比特币的现象级暴涨,吸引了大量投机客跑步入场。同时,那些原本持有比特币的人,也比以往任何时候更加“惜售”。
比特币呈现出罕见的通缩特征
Foundation of Economic Education的作者Jeffrey A. Tucker认为,这种现象的背后,是因为比特币呈现出罕见的通缩特征,那些在网上被称为“Hodler”(囤积客)的人,做出通过推迟消费并囤积比特币以在未来获得更大购买力的行为,是合理的。
Tucker认为,这和在通胀环境中人们的理性选择正好相反。在通胀情况下,货币的购买力持续下降,越早花出去就相应能实现越大的购买力。而在通缩中,储蓄的越多,相应的未来的财富也就越多。
Tucker解释道,在过去的凯恩斯主义理论中,驱动经济增长的是消费者支出,并非储蓄。因此,那些囤积货币的人,实际上是在阻碍社会发展,因此他们就是公敌。凯恩斯自己曾写道:一切试图通过削减消费来获得更多储蓄的人,都会影响收入增长,最终这种行为事与愿违。
Tucker认为,美国在二战后的快速发展,正是因为人们在大萧条和战争期间囤积的财富开始释放,并不是由于美联储政策的推动。在经济增长势头初显之后,美联储又开始了通胀路线:个人储蓄率升至15%后见顶,到了1970年代初,超级通胀的袭击直接洗劫了人们在过去20年中积累的财富。
这并不意外,个人储蓄一降再降,收入增长趋平,经济增长更像翻山越岭。在我们自己这个时代,通胀问题得到解决,但现在面临的是近零的利率,而这又会对储蓄带来伤害。
Tucker认为,2008年金融危机后,美国储蓄率再度开始上升。而也正是此时,比特币问世,且其内在设计就是价值随着时间推移而增长。比特币的现象级暴涨,吸引了大量投机客跑步入场。与此同时,那些原本拥有比特币的人,也比以往任何时候都更加“惜售”。
现在整个加密货币行业的总市值接近4000亿美元,比摩根大通的市值还要大。FX678援引外媒的报道,比特币的涨幅令人难以置信。2017年的涨幅达1000%,许多人预计2018年将会有更大的涨幅。
而储蓄一直以来就是投资的前提。著名经济科普读物《小岛经济学》就讲了这样的故事:以前有一个名叫Crusoe的人,他每天都出去捉鱼吃。他没有时间编织网,因此他总是用杆子钓鱼。后来他意识到他可以用网捕捉到更多的东西。他随后开始织网,网织成以后,他的捕鱼量比以前增加了10倍。因此方法很重要,挖比特币也是如此。
恶性通货膨胀坑了储蓄者
在经济增长最初的推动下,美联储开始了其通货膨胀的道路。个人储蓄率达到了顶峰——15%,但当时的储蓄者们被一种恶性通货膨胀所坑了。这种恶性的通货膨胀在70年代末开始,掠夺了人们在过去20年积累起来的储蓄。毫无疑问:个人储蓄下降,收入减少,使得美国的经济增长变得越来越困难。
2008年的经济危机使一代人受到创伤,人们开始以更高的利率储蓄。正是在那样的情况下,比特币诞生了并且有着极高的升值速度。比特币并不是新一代的“金本位制”。比特币的数量就像黄金一样,都是有限的。和比特币玩家的态度截然相反,经济学家们对比特币2100万固定总量的态度两极分化。
Tucker表示,从很多角度来看,比特币正是完全反凯恩斯主义的。他写道:比特币持有者在储蓄、囤货。他们拒绝消费,并不断储蓄,这在他身边就有例子。投资比特币的年轻人拒绝奢侈消费,他们不买车,不吃大餐,只买便宜日用品。他们知道,今天消费的一切都在侵蚀未来消费、投资和累积财富的能力。
如果你对未来感到绝望,那就考虑一下目前在加密行业中积累了多少资本。在未来的5到15年内,所有递延费用将以真实资本的形式在世界经济中得到释放,以创造财富。(汇通网)
bailunfaa
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Re: 比特币暴涨元凶起底:持币者囤积惜售 加剧供给不足
December 09, 2017, 06:50:32 AM
#2
那些持币者都是看重了比特币的未来价值,一币一别墅,这口号不是随随便便就能喊出来的。
zhangswujip
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Re: 比特币暴涨元凶起底:持币者囤积惜售 加剧供给不足
December 09, 2017, 08:28:19 AM
#3
比特币总量固定,这就体现了它的价值无线,只要比特币发展好,未来别说一币一别墅,更高的价格都会有,颠覆你的想象。可惜我没有比特币啊
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