Why has our pool luck just dropped off?

[Jorione]

We were running in the 90% for weeks. Some times even getting over 100% ( i don't know how). Now...  I have only 4 blocks waiting to be verified where I use to have 10-12 blocks. If this was true for me, this was true for you also (assuming you mine 24/7 with something).

I don't think difficulty increasing would affect pool luck. It would just take longer.. but percentage wise, it would still be the same. The only thing I can think of is the competition has gone up.

Can someone confirm? Or...  just talk.. idk. I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

[1714861618]

1714861618

[1714861618]

1714861618

[os2sam]

My pool seem to be doing pretty good.

[os2sam]

I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

Is that really necessary?  Seems a tad bit childish to me.

[Jorione]

I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

Is that really necessary?  Seems a tad bit childish to me.

Do I need to answer that, or you just being childish back? How about take this whole topic and talk about hotdogs.

Stay on topic or keep you a$$ on youtube comments. It's my post and I do what i want. get off my lawn.

[os2sam]

I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

Is that really necessary?  Seems a tad bit childish to me.

Do I need to answer that, or you just being childish back? How about take this whole topic and talk about hotdogs.

Stay on topic or keep you a$$ on youtube comments. It's my post and I do what i want. get off my lawn.

If you want to talk about your topic I'm willing to do that.  I first posted a sensible reply to a somewhat silly question but one worth talking about.

My second reply was just saying that your childish remarks aren't really necessary.  But it seems your unable to have an intelligent conversation.  So unless your willing to attempt to demonstrate you have a higher IQ then it appears, have a nice day.

[Jorione]

I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

Is that really necessary?  Seems a tad bit childish to me.

Do I need to answer that, or you just being childish back? How about take this whole topic and talk about hotdogs.

Stay on topic or keep you a$$ on youtube comments. It's my post and I do what i want. get off my lawn.

If you want to talk about your topic I'm willing to do that.  I first posted a sensible reply to a somewhat silly question but one worth talking about.

My second reply was just saying that your childish remarks aren't really necessary.  But it seems your unable to have an intelligent conversation.  So unless your willing to attempt to demonstrate you have a higher IQ then it appears, have a nice day.

Your first reply was wortless anyway.   WHat pool ?   

Topic is dead already. Thanks for killing it. No one reads bickering. Thanks for nothing. Get you things and visit a doctor, understanding the internet is not hard.

[os2sam]

I want my bitcoins.  GIMMMEEE

Is that really necessary?  Seems a tad bit childish to me.

Do I need to answer that, or you just being childish back? How about take this whole topic and talk about hotdogs.

Stay on topic or keep you a$$ on youtube comments. It's my post and I do what i want. get off my lawn.

If you want to talk about your topic I'm willing to do that.  I first posted a sensible reply to a somewhat silly question but one worth talking about.

My second reply was just saying that your childish remarks aren't really necessary.  But it seems your unable to have an intelligent conversation.  So unless your willing to attempt to demonstrate you have a higher IQ then it appears, have a nice day.

Your first reply was wortless anyway.   WHat pool ?   

Well that is a very pertinent question.  What pool and what payout method are you talking about?  And what are your percentages referring to.

If you went from 10 to 12 blocks to 4 blocks for the same time period then it would seem that its a combination difficulty increase, pool loosing hash rate and luck.

[Jorione]

About time you pulled your head out of your idiot ass.

I'm glad you see now the significance of the question.

Too little too late. I'm not interested.

This thread is closed.

Be less of a child before you talk about hotdogs and tables.

[juhakall]

OP wins, obviously.

[crazyates]

Your first reply was wortless anyway.   WHat pool ?   

Actually, your entire OP was pointless, as you never even said what pool YOU are on.

And ya, I'm with os2sam on this. Quit being an asshole.

[Jorione]

Your first reply was wortless anyway.   WHat pool ?   

Actually, your entire OP was pointless, as you never even said what pool YOU are on.

And ya, I'm with os2sam on this. Quit being an asshole.

This question did not require me to divulge which pool. Enough facts are there to start a conversation. Because that is what i asked for, a conversation about pool luck. But when someone comes along with 5 seconds comparing his pool to to nothing. That's useless. very... It may seem like you support os2sam, but you are exactly what he says he hates about this forum. Good job, your post was revealing.

I see what this post has become. "COME GET YOUR LICKS !!!    LETS PUMMEL HIM AND KEEP THE WORTHLESS COMMENTS COMING !!!! "

" YAAAAA!!!!   GET HIM GUYS !!!! " 

Childish tendencies.

[maqifrnswa]

I don't think difficulty increasing would affect pool luck.

that's your error - finding a block is a Poisson process. Variance (actually sqrt of variance, but that's semantics) is proportional to the square root of expected blocks. Percentage variance is thus 1/sqrt(number_of_blocks)

If you normally get 100 blocks in a given week, you should expect +/- 10 blocks variance (i.e., 10%).
If difficulty rises and you now get 9 blocks a week, you should expect +/-3 (i.e., 33%)

[notme]

I don't think difficulty increasing would affect pool luck.

that's your error - finding a block is a Poisson process. Variance (actually sqrt of variance, but that's semantics) is proportional to the square root of expected blocks. Percentage variance is thus 1/sqrt(number_of_blocks)

If you normally get 100 blocks in a given week, you should expect +/- 10 blocks variance (i.e., 10%).
If difficulty rises and you now get 9 blocks a week, you should expect +/-3 (i.e., 33%)

This.

[Jorione]

I don't think difficulty increasing would affect pool luck.

that's your error - finding a block is a Poisson process. Variance (actually sqrt of variance, but that's semantics) is proportional to the square root of expected blocks. Percentage variance is thus 1/sqrt(number_of_blocks)

If you normally get 100 blocks in a given week, you should expect +/- 10 blocks variance (i.e., 10%).
If difficulty rises and you now get 9 blocks a week, you should expect +/-3 (i.e., 33%)

Difficulty stepped up around the same time as I notice the pool luck decrease. My concern that difficulty would not affect pool luck came from the equation Luck = exp(-total_shares / difficulty). While I did not keep a historical account of the previous difficulty block share total, I assume shares per block did go up with difficulty. Since the increase in both shares (assumed) and difficulty- would this not normalize pool luck percent? Does Poisson process apply to luck? The increase in block time by its self would account for difficulty, but a decrease in pool luck suggests someone else is still finding the blocks. Even though total bitcoin hash rate is fluctuating, the last few days it still averages around the same.

I suppose the word luck is just that. Luck. While it can be mathematically explicit, it still is just luck in its purest form.

Though, something is still not connecting for me.