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Author Topic: Unconfirmed Transactions keeping price up?!  (Read 649 times)
NewalTurim (OP)
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December 09, 2017, 11:29:40 AM
 #1

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!
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December 09, 2017, 11:33:14 AM
 #2

Moving coins between wallets you own could cause this. One wants to do this for zero or low fees, and the confirmation time doesn't matter. I'm one who is going to have to try this so that I can claim my air drop coins.

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December 09, 2017, 11:46:57 AM
 #3

It falls in line with other speculation like, exchanging closing during a sell to prevent a full sell-out (gox did it twice) and coinbase has a way of it's own.

But the problem with this one is volume.Yeah there are 200k unconfirmed transactions but
-how much is spam
-how much is close to dust level
-how much is just people moving around coins

To really make a dent in the markets you would need volume. And guys who can't afford 15$ per tx would not be able to do it.

Of course you could be one of those guys , transferring 2 million$ with a 3$ fee and waiting for two days already....
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/605e6226505685cbbba1389dddae00716958f0410b5e6dc5970bef7be2fbc653

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NewalTurim (OP)
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December 09, 2017, 12:35:03 PM
 #4

It falls in line with other speculation like, exchanging closing during a sell to prevent a full sell-out (gox did it twice) and coinbase has a way of it's own.

But the problem with this one is volume.Yeah there are 200k unconfirmed transactions but
-how much is spam
-how much is close to dust level
-how much is just people moving around coins

To really make a dent in the markets you would need volume. And guys who can't afford 15$ per tx would not be able to do it.

Of course you could be one of those guys , transferring 2 million$ with a 3$ fee and waiting for two days already....
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/605e6226505685cbbba1389dddae00716958f0410b5e6dc5970bef7be2fbc653


Makes sense! thanks...a lot of factors I did not take in consideration.
However, I would argue there might be not that many close to dust level since the fees are quite high.
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December 09, 2017, 12:56:21 PM
 #5

It falls in line with other speculation like, exchanging closing during a sell to prevent a full sell-out (gox did it twice) and coinbase has a way of it's own.

But the problem with this one is volume.Yeah there are 200k unconfirmed transactions but
-how much is spam
-how much is close to dust level
-how much is just people moving around coins

To really make a dent in the markets you would need volume. And guys who can't afford 15$ per tx would not be able to do it.

Of course you could be one of those guys , transferring 2 million$ with a 3$ fee and waiting for two days already....
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/605e6226505685cbbba1389dddae00716958f0410b5e6dc5970bef7be2fbc653


I think that the spam transactions and the "close to dust level" are pretty much the same.What`s the point of  moving small amounts of bitcoins?Anyway,this is a normal process.Every time the bitcoin price increases the transaction fees hit the sky and many people just want to pay a lower fee (or no fee).
This process stops the bitcoin price to skyrocket,which is good for the market.

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December 09, 2017, 01:14:30 PM
 #6

It falls in line with other speculation like, exchanging closing during a sell to prevent a full sell-out (gox did it twice) and coinbase has a way of it's own.

But the problem with this one is volume.Yeah there are 200k unconfirmed transactions but
-how much is spam
-how much is close to dust level
-how much is just people moving around coins

To really make a dent in the markets you would need volume. And guys who can't afford 15$ per tx would not be able to do it.

Some Gox-like scenarios are happening whenever the price hits an all-time high. Witnessed and experienced it firsthand and it's kinda disappointing. As for the transaction volumes on the network, a huge portion of it are not even significant to be accounted on the daily trading volume that really moves the price. The effect is so little to be counted, and not all of those transactions are even headed to exchanges.

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December 09, 2017, 01:25:37 PM
 #7

Of course you could be one of those guys , transferring 2 million$ with a 3$ fee and waiting for two days already....
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/605e6226505685cbbba1389dddae00716958f0410b5e6dc5970bef7be2fbc653

These are really great words Smiley Smiley Smiley.May be some poor guys who could not afford to pay such huge transaction fee of $3 would be worried about.

OP's question seems very logical from a newbie's point of view.He just thinks that the BTC price has increased high and it still remains high only for the reason that people are not able to withdraw their bitcoins for selling.Otherwise,due to high sell order,BTC price might have fallen down.

But beyond that,there is still a huge buy wall for bitcoins due to entry of CME,CBOE,etc.,

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December 09, 2017, 01:56:20 PM
 #8

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!

Wow. Great observation.
That could be one of the reason it is not fluctuating down much.
Stucked withdrawals and others that will not sacrifice to do any transactions for now because of the traffic.
Yes that might be possible that it is the reason behind it. But after all this could all be fixed and I hope the price will stay as it is now.
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December 09, 2017, 02:19:58 PM
 #9

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!
Indirectly delay in delivery of Bitcoin can make Bitcoin owners do not take action that can reduce the price of Bitcoin. An example is a panic sell that can make Bitcoin prices plummet. I see that when people do not panic sell Bitcoin prices can survive and tend to have a stable price. But I also experienced the same thing, I did some transactions and it was over delay, it was almost 3 days and Bitcoin that I have not got. This is a risk, so we can speed up the delivery of Bitcoin by increasing FEE, this is an obligation for us to take action quickly.
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December 09, 2017, 02:41:19 PM
 #10

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!
The fees are high and nobody wants to pay more,even if the price rises. This is nothing besides human greed,they only want their income to rise,not their expenses. One of the main reasons for the huge amount is that people are willing to sell,since the price has hit ATH,they are moving their coins from wallet to wallet,and two they don't want to pay high fees and are persistent about it. They don't even know to accelerate their transaction and are spamming about accelerating their tx wherever possible. The price of btc is not dropping because of support not 'cause of tx fee,is it? Agreed to some point that the unconfirmed tx can cause a delay for people to dump but otherwise this is just a minute reason for the price not dropping. Plus,miners are only in favor of high fee transactions and more priority is given to it,no matter what the amount is.


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December 09, 2017, 02:56:16 PM
 #11

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

well first of all, how are you sure that these transactions are people moving bitcoin from their wallets to exchanges?! i say it is people moving bitcoin from exchanges out to their wallets! i bet you haven't thought about that possibility yet.

secondly, the price is mostly affected by traders who are keeping their coins+money on exchanges ready to go, not from some dude who doesn't know he has to pay a higher fee if he wants a faster confirmation. and those who know will pay a higher fee, even 800-2000 satoshi/byte (check the blocks that are mined and you will see these).

and finally the price fell hard from $19000 to current price recently and the unconfirmed transactions were still high at 100K+. how do you explain that?

There is a FOMO brewing...
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December 09, 2017, 03:39:06 PM
 #12

I'd say Yes. I sent some coins to the exchange with a $3 fee over 24 hours ago, but they haven't been confirmed.

And yes, I sent them to sell and take some profits (because I'm not sure this level of price will get sustained once the futures trading opens). I just hope my coins arrive before Sunday!

 
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December 09, 2017, 05:11:33 PM
 #13

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!

No, it’s normally yesterday was more than 270K but today is 173k.

transaction spam make a number of Unconfirmed Transactions increase fast is less than 24 hours like what’s happens when Roger ven spamming {2x canceled}

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December 09, 2017, 05:54:03 PM
 #14

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!
You are right as this could solve demand for bitcoin as many unconfirmed transactions still count as bitcoin holding. Another thing that has keep bitcoin up is the current decision by two company to use bitcoin for future trade,  I think this make many holders to keep bitcoin in other to make profit from the pump that may start happening from on 10-12-2017.
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December 09, 2017, 06:01:38 PM
 #15

My question is already in the subject line.
I saw today that there is about 180 k unconfirmed transactions (https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions)

Besides the fact that it undermines btc's reputation and ability as a currency, is that what keeps the price steady at the moment?

Maybe you can help me out here, but the most likely scenario for me is that this prevents the btc price from dropping right now?

thanks in advance for your input!

It went as high as 270K if I'm not mistaken, which coincides with bitcoin price is peaking at $18K. But it looks like it cool down a bit because the price of bitcoin is going down as well. So we can conclude that there's a correlation between mempool clogging to bitcoin price increasing. I think if I understand you correctly, there will be no bitcoin price steady, its always unstable, like today the price is going down making a correction. But there are news that LN will be soon implement which will help at least unclogged network congestion.

https://www.coindesk.com/lightning-bitcoin-scaling-tech-really-know/

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December 09, 2017, 06:38:01 PM
 #16

It the opposite mate i.e the bitcoin unconfirmed transaction will cause the dump in price of bitcoin because people will choose to use altcoin in other to get their transaction confirm which the reason behind Ethereum bullish lately.

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December 09, 2017, 06:40:36 PM
 #17

Moving coins between wallets you own could cause this. One wants to do this for zero or low fees, and the confirmation time doesn't matter. I'm one who is going to have to try this so that I can claim my air drop coins.

If I was you I’d claim your BCH quickly. I think it’ll dump hard pretty soon. Don’t lose free money just out of laziness. 

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December 09, 2017, 07:06:22 PM
 #18

It the opposite mate i.e the bitcoin unconfirmed transaction will cause the dump in price of bitcoin because people will choose to use altcoin in other to get their transaction confirm which the reason behind Ethereum bullish lately.

If you are sending coins from your own hardware wallet, you can't use alts to by-pass the bitcoin mempool problem.

It's only people with coins on exchanges that have the option to switch into alts.

 
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December 09, 2017, 07:59:16 PM
 #19

If you have been paying attention to the Mempool you should know that there are everytime less transactions in there.

There were more than 230 thousand of unconfirmed tx during the last night, at the morning, there were less than 180k.
It is going down so fast, there are just 160k. It is getting cleared right now.

And obviously that THIS is the only issue of why the fees are very high at the moment. Just $15 for a single transaction is illogic.


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December 09, 2017, 08:01:47 PM
 #20

Of course you could be one of those guys , transferring 2 million$ with a 3$ fee and waiting for two days already....
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/605e6226505685cbbba1389dddae00716958f0410b5e6dc5970bef7be2fbc653

These are really great words Smiley Smiley Smiley.May be some poor guys who could not afford to pay such huge transaction fee of $3 would be worried about.

OP's question seems very logical from a newbie's point of view.He just thinks that the BTC price has increased high and it still remains high only for the reason that people are not able to withdraw their bitcoins for selling.Otherwise,due to high sell order,BTC price might have fallen down.

But beyond that,there is still a huge buy wall for bitcoins due to entry of CME,CBOE,etc.,

Are you kidding? Asking seriously.

Yesterday, I wanted to send 0.1 to my friend, and the blockchain asked me to give $19 as fee. Is this normal? Of course, it's not.

Is it logical to pay $19 for $1500 transfer? No! Then why are you blaming us?
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