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FT社评:暂时不用太担心比特币
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Topic: FT社评:暂时不用太担心比特币 (Read 110 times)
babudou17
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FT社评:暂时不用太担心比特币
December 09, 2017, 01:11:27 PM
#1
比特币价格存在泡沫。要认识到这一点,人们只需要看看这种加密货币达到目前逾16000美元这一峰值的令人眩晕的上涨过程——然后记得它不具备内在价值。它不像石油一样有生产用途,也没有政府为其背书。它甚至也不像绘画、黄金以及郁金香那样有外观上的吸引力。到目前为止,购买比特币唯一合理的理由就是为了之后可以高价出售。
人们应该关心这一点吗?眼下比特币具备了不少的名义价值。用比特币的价格乘以数量,可以得出其总价值已经超过2700亿美元——大体相当于美国第三大银行富国银行(Wells Fargo)的市值,并且是其账面价值的两倍。人们有理由认为还会有更多资金流入比特币。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)和芝加哥期权交易所全球市场(Cboe Global Markets)这两家主要的交易所将推出比特币期货产品。在历史上,资产泡沫攀升至最疯狂的高度往往是在引入衍生品交易后。相比标的资产的现金交易与交割,衍生品交易操作更简单且资本密集程度更低。
通常急于在创新衍生工具(比如抵押贷款支持信用违约掉期)的突然火爆中牟利的华尔街银行,正在鼓励监管部门更谨慎地审查比特币期货,这很能说明问题。他们有理由绷紧神经。所有的比特币期货交易都将必须通过清算所完成,一旦出现违约将由成员机构负责,比如大型银行的经纪业务部门。一旦大批交易出现问题,比如因为比特币价格崩盘导致大批交易者无法完成交易,最终背锅的可能是清算所。
也可能银行业只是不想参与其中。正如其价格飙升所表明的那样,比特币市场缺少自然的卖家(除了那些需要出售比特币以支付计算机挖矿所耗电费的比特币“挖矿人”)。这使得经纪商要么本身在交易中“做空”(这存在巨大的风险),要么拒绝为客户交易、从而可能失去业务。
由于在价格继续上涨时缺少愿意押注比特币价格下跌的人,期货市场可能会失败。如果真是这样,那也不错。自由社会应该允许比特币(或任何一种东西)投机行为的存在——只要这种行为不会把他人置于险境。如果这种集体浪费时间和能源的行为最终没能站稳脚跟,那可能是最好的结果。
但是不会有其他人受伤吗?当然,比特币可能会暴跌到零。很多账面财富都会消失。但比特币不是银行。比特币的杠杆不高,似乎只在有限的情况中被用作抵押物。比特币大部分名义价值本质上属于“意外之财”。因此没必要太过担忧——除非其价值进一步大幅攀升、或者人们在围绕这种加密货币的金融生态系统中疯狂加杠杆。这种情况可能出现。监管部门需要密切跟踪事态发展,并且对比特币衍生品交易坚持高保证金的要求,并实行严格的风险控制。
比特币期货对比特币意味着什么?
邰蒂:比特币期货即将出炉。有人认为此举将提高比特币的需求,但是期货也为做空比特币提供了便利。
尽管没有合理的非投机性理由来购买比特币,但确实有重要的非法理由来购买它。只要比特币还存在价值,它就是人们逃税、洗钱以及躲避传统法定货币相关法规的有效工具。因此,尽管没有必要对比特币交易设置监管障碍,但有关部门应该谨慎控制比特币与传统货币、银行系统以及税收制度的连接点。创新技术不是违法行为的许可证。
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