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Author Topic: Bitcoin, gold, future  (Read 3083 times)
wobber
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January 01, 2011, 11:51:30 AM
 #1

I hope this thread doesn't exist yet. This is childish thread but I invite you all to speak up, I'm very interested of each opinion because a mass consciousness can tell and foretell many things.

I am thinking of the cash-bitcoin (you loose wallet, loose money irreversibly etc) analogy that was explained to me when I first got in here. I also think of the bitcoin-gold analogy (you mine for them, it stores value). I think bitcoin is just bitcoin, it's something different but it's more similar to gold. Being so, this means someday 1 BTC will have a huge value. Like an ounce of gold now.
What value could 1 BTC have? Well since the total amount of gold as of 2009 was 165.000 tons, worth 5 trillion dollars, could we estimate that 1 BTC could be 165000000 kgs of gold /2100000 total bitcoins => 1 BTC ~= 7kgs of gold?

That is 246 ounces (rounded), 1 ounce being 1300 USD => 1 BTC could be equal 319.800 USD. That if all the people in the world think about bitcoin as being valuable.

I know that by the time you will have almost 21 mil BTC, the total gold quantity will be greater but... doesn't really matter, i just want to know what YOU think a 1BTC will worth in 6 months; 1 year and 5 years. If you have arguments it's better if not, just make a prediction. On the global scale, each prediction is valuable since it is just the output of the processed input data by a human mind. Some of us have more correct input data, some have more, some have a better processing algo.

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lucky
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January 01, 2011, 05:44:56 PM
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Before we approach the 21 million cap, I suspect the primary influence on the value of bitcoins will be determined by whether the demand for bitcoins is growing as fast as the money supply.

What I've read suggests that it is, so I suspect a gentle (several percent per month) deflation over the next six months and year, but I'm unwilling to make any guesses beyond that because outside influences could radically influence the market.
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January 01, 2011, 08:42:29 PM
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Another way to look at this is the entire world GDP is around 100 trillion USD today.  If Bitcoin someday became so successful that it displaced all other currencies in circulation, then 21 million BTC would have to represent the equivalent of 100 trillion USD, or around 5 million USD per Bitcoin.  We would all be incredibly rich at that point.

"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
Hal
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January 02, 2011, 01:01:31 AM
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I came up with an even more extravagant estimate of $10 million a couple years ago on the cryptography list:

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

I compared the stock of bitcoins to total worldwide wealth, rather than GWP, which is the amount produced in one year.

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January 02, 2011, 04:30:59 AM
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I came up with an even more extravagant estimate of $10 million a couple years ago on the cryptography list:

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

I compared the stock of bitcoins to total worldwide wealth, rather than GWP, which is the amount produced in one year.

I think a few more assumptions can get it even higher. Even at our current low rate of wealth creation there will probably be 50% more wealth in 10 years or so. Plus if bitcoin is a better and freer money then wealth can be produced even more quickly. So maybe double that 10 million. Also if people are confident in the money and in future growth they may be even more willing to save in bitcoin as opposed to consuming quickly (on the margin at least).

Ultimately I think this high level will not be fully reach because there will be other good ways of saving value that will be found or created.


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