Bitcoin Futures at CBOE

[johnnycash70]

Hi

i have a quick question regarding the going live of Bitcoin Futures at the CBOE.
Need they to be covered in real Bitcoins or is that a complete stand alone OTC market?

I hope its a OTC, the crypto market should not be influenced by the traders of that lottery trading.
Thanks

[bitfools]

Hi

i have a quick question regarding the going live of Bitcoin Futures at the CBOE.
Need they to be covered in real Bitcoins or is that a complete stand alone OTC market?

I hope its a OTC, the crypto market should not be influenced by the traders of that lottery trading.
Thanks

Its a US DOLLAR CASH MARKET, no BTC are involved

It's a derivative meaning its nothing to do with BTC

Think of it as a FOOTBALL POOL ran by mafia where you bet on future team score, in this case the bookie is goldman-sachs CME/BRR/GS

The bookie doesn't touch the ball, the bookie doesn't have contact with players,

Same here the futures market just uses the exchange prices to average the price, but the customers buy bets as to whether the price go up/down and how much, in this case they bet on blocks of FIVE(5) BTC, and bet how much UP/DOWN. If they own 1,000 BTC and sell at an exchange and the price drops, then they can cover the loss because if the sold a 'short' on the futures market then say BTC drops $15k to $10k, they make $25k, that's block of 5, but they sold 1,000, so they make $500k on the price drop. If the price of BTC doesn't drop no loss, its just insurance.

[ my current understanding is the price of the block of five for the trade is currently $400, thus in the case the profit on each would be $5k less $400, or $4600, THE HOUSE ALWAYS TAKES ITS POUND OF FLESH, its ZOG-GS]

The only ppl who will use this futures trade is WHALES that need to buy insurance so that if their BTC sell transaction causes the price of BTC to plummet the futures 'short' will make them rich to cover the loss on drop of price back at BTC

Now that there is insurance to DUMP BTC, everybody is going to cash out.

Merry XMAS

[knien]

Hi

i have a quick question regarding the going live of Bitcoin Futures at the CBOE.
Need they to be covered in real Bitcoins or is that a complete stand alone OTC market?

I hope its a OTC, the crypto market should not be influenced by the traders of that lottery trading.
Thanks

Its a US DOLLAR CASH MARKET, no BTC are involved

It's a derivative meaning its nothing to do with BTC

Think of it as a FOOTBALL POOL ran by mafia where you bet on future team score, in this case the bookie is goldman-sachs CME/BRR/GS

The bookie doesn't touch the ball, the bookie doesn't have contact with players,

Same here the futures market just uses the exchange prices to average the price, but the customers buy bets as to whether the price go up/down and how much, in this case they bet on blocks of FIVE(5) BTC, and bet how much UP/DOWN. If they own 1,000 BTC and sell at an exchange and the price drops, then they can cover the loss because if the sold a 'short' on the futures market then say BTC drops $15k to $10k, they make $25k, that's block of 5, but they sold 1,000, so they make $500k on the price drop. If the price of BTC doesn't drop no loss, its just insurance.

[ my current understanding is the price of the block of five for the trade is currently $400, thus in the case the profit on each would be $5k less $400, or $4600, THE HOUSE ALWAYS TAKES ITS POUND OF FLESH, its ZOG-GS]

The only ppl who will use this futures trade is WHALES that need to buy insurance so that if their BTC sell transaction causes the price of BTC to plummet the futures 'short' will make them rich to cover the loss on drop of price back at BTC

Now that there is insurance to DUMP BTC, everybody is going to cash out.

Merry XMAS

Interesting explanation on the future trades.
So you expect all the whales to cash out now and BTC price goes down ?
And what is your long term expectation on this ?

[BTCYogi]

CBOE Futures will not involve actual buying of BTC. The CBOE future will only refer to the price of BTC and the trader will trade/BET on the price fluctuation.

Its like predicting price of Oranges in next month. Say X and Y are 2 individual with no relation to farming or does not own farm or single tree of orange. But they are traders, X says Oranges will be 2$ each Y says okay pay me 2$ and I will deliver you Oranges (Hypothetical) after a month.
If the Orange price next month is 3$, X makes 1$ as he had brought Orange  (Hypothetical) at 2$ and now can sell the same orange for 3$.
If Orange price next month is 1$, Y makes 1$ as he already received 2$ for a 1$ orange (Hypothetical).

Same goes for BTC. Just no BTC involved just money and traders and speculators!!

[cynical]

but will the traders and speculators try to infleuence the market to their gain
particularly if those traders and speculators already own large quantities of bitcoin?
as we have already seen on a different thread, a very small amount of people own about 40% of bitcoins (allegedly)

[overthetop2011]

It is a good start to open a new gate of the crypto investment for the newbies from the MASS.

See the price jumping today? that is the sign.

[BitcoinFrik]

Hi

i have a quick question regarding the going live of Bitcoin Futures at the CBOE.
Need they to be covered in real Bitcoins or is that a complete stand alone OTC market?

I hope its a OTC, the crypto market should not be influenced by the traders of that lottery trading.
Thanks

Its a US DOLLAR CASH MARKET, no BTC are involved

It's a derivative meaning its nothing to do with BTC

Think of it as a FOOTBALL POOL ran by mafia where you bet on future team score, in this case the bookie is goldman-sachs CME/BRR/GS

The bookie doesn't touch the ball, the bookie doesn't have contact with players,

Same here the futures market just uses the exchange prices to average the price, but the customers buy bets as to whether the price go up/down and how much, in this case they bet on blocks of FIVE(5) BTC, and bet how much UP/DOWN. If they own 1,000 BTC and sell at an exchange and the price drops, then they can cover the loss because if the sold a 'short' on the futures market then say BTC drops $15k to $10k, they make $25k, that's block of 5, but they sold 1,000, so they make $500k on the price drop. If the price of BTC doesn't drop no loss, its just insurance.

[ my current understanding is the price of the block of five for the trade is currently $400, thus in the case the profit on each would be $5k less $400, or $4600, THE HOUSE ALWAYS TAKES ITS POUND OF FLESH, its ZOG-GS]

The only ppl who will use this futures trade is WHALES that need to buy insurance so that if their BTC sell transaction causes the price of BTC to plummet the futures 'short' will make them rich to cover the loss on drop of price back at BTC

Now that there is insurance to DUMP BTC, everybody is going to cash out.

Merry XMAS

Interesting explanation on the future trades.
So you expect all the whales to cash out now and BTC price goes down ?
And what is your long term expectation on this ?

This is just one theory. But it's one of the option, it's now way this is 100% what's gonna happen.

[johnnycash70]

I am pretty sure that from time to time these old school investor will try to manipulate the BTC market. I hope they will fale and will leave us alone.
I thought already that it will be no coverage with real BTC only a OTC market.
Let these investors burn their hand on it and let us have our own world with our BTCs.

[AlexW333]

All traders and holders cryptocurenncies are waiting reaction......What will happen next?

[johnnycash70]

anyway. to buy with 1% margin 100% bitcoin future is still interesting. especially that the rate will never be under 18k end of Jan 18
But isnt it true that you can already do some margin trades through Bitfinex?

[Xavofat]

I hope its a OTC, the crypto market should not be influenced by the traders of that lottery trading.

Even though this futures trading will be gambling on the future prices of BTC without actually participating or using BTC at all, it will still affect the BTC market.

If the futures price is higher than the normal price, people will eventually buy BTC on different exchanges where the price is cheaper, so the prices will join together.   The same could happen the other way around.

It might take a bit longer than normal, but futures contracts make it a lot easier for whales to manipulate the market. 

[TheQuin]

It might take a bit longer than normal, but futures contracts make it a lot easier for whales to manipulate the market. 

My take on this is the opposite. It reduces the influence of the existing whales by bringing a whole new set of players into the equation. The CBoE contract isn't really important to this (it's only available through one broker). Wait until next week when CME opens to see what the volumes are like compared to the existing exchanges, then we will have some gage on how important or not it is.

[Qartersa]

This is really what's hard to understand about futures, they are buying bitcoins but actually are not buying bitcoins. They are just speculating on the price and not really actually affect real bitcoin trades, since there is no actual buying and selling of bitcoins. People are merely buying and selling numbers and not really the bitcoins itself. I think it will influence bitcoin prices negatively.

[care2yak]

it's like how forex works. you place orders and earn from both price gains and price dips on every pip.

[TheQuin]

This is really what's hard to understand about futures, they are buying bitcoins but actually are not buying bitcoins. They are just speculating on the price and not really actually affect real bitcoin trades, since there is no actual buying and selling of bitcoins. People are merely buying and selling numbers and not really the bitcoins itself. I think it will influence bitcoin prices negatively.

It could equally influence it positively. Although there is no actual buying or selling of Bitcoins the futures are deliverable in cash based on the price of a cash market. This means if there is a discrepancy in price then there is an arbitrage opportunity to buy in one market and sell in the other. This creates a price feedback loop between the two markets and means one cannot drive the price on its own.

[oegarod]

In my opinion the bitcoin futures will surely have some impact on the real bitcoin. Now the market is completely different from one another as well each has dependence on different markets. In future at some point both will depend on a common market making each and everything interdependent to each other.

[Xavofat]

It might take a bit longer than normal, but futures contracts make it a lot easier for whales to manipulate the market. 

My take on this is the opposite. It reduces the influence of the existing whales by bringing a whole new set of players into the equation.

The new set of players could be people who never participated in BTC at all - futures contracts could make it much easier to short on a large scale for those who would rather not go on dodgy exchanges like Bitfinex.

The largest current BTC exchanges are still nowhere near the level of professionalism that most rich people who might want to try manipulating the market would expect.

It makes it easier to go long as well, but it was definitely harder to bet against the price of BTC rising than in favour of it before, and I expect futures contracts to change that at least.

[TheQuin]

The new set of players could be people who never participated in BTC at all - futures contracts could make it much easier to short on a large scale for those who would rather not go on dodgy exchanges like Bitfinex.

The largest current BTC exchanges are still nowhere near the level of professionalism that most rich people who might want to try manipulating the market would expect.

It makes it easier to go long as well, but it was definitely harder to bet against the price of BTC rising than in favour of it before, and I expect futures contracts to change that at least.

The new set of players are professional traders. They have no interest in manipulating the market, they just want to make a profit. If it looks like its going up they'll go long, if it looks like its going down they'll short it.
I think the whole "whales manipulating the market" thing is coming to end for this very reason. Whales are about to getting eaten by some sharks.