Liquidity problem

[antimattercrusader]

To give you an extreme example - if everybody stops selling bitcoin, the price is infinite. If nobody buys bitcoin, the price is zero. No funding needed. Please study price discovery mechanisms before you make conclusions like that.

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  ... If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

[SOSLOVE868]

To give you an extreme example - if everybody stops selling bitcoin, the price is infinite. If nobody buys bitcoin, the price is zero. No funding needed. Please study price discovery mechanisms before you make conclusions like that.

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  ... If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

Fiats are dead , it may be happened 100 years later, so what we doing now is generating wealth for our next generations.

[antimattercrusader]

To give you an extreme example - if everybody stops selling bitcoin, the price is infinite. If nobody buys bitcoin, the price is zero. No funding needed. Please study price discovery mechanisms before you make conclusions like that.

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  ... If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

Fiats are dead , it may be happened 100 years later, so what we doing now is generating wealth for our next generations.

Amen, the clock is ticking for the current system. Change is coming in every sense of the world, from technological, to social, to environmental. Nothing can stop it.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

No currencies are the most traded good.

Say I will sell you 1 ounce of gold for 20 Bitcoins.  Is that a good deal?  Lets pretend no USD/BTC exchange rate is available.  Well the only way to know would be to compare all the others goods and services you can get for 20 BTC and try to come to some rationalization of value.  Now here is the funny part.  Likely in your mind what you will do is something like this.

So I can get a 10 steam games for 1 BTC.  Steam games (discounted) tend to run $5 to $10 ea so lets say $7 so 10 steam games is $70.  Therefore 20 BTC is 200 steam games or $1400.  Yeah I guess that is a good deal.

The problem with that is that it is horribly inefficient.  With little price visibility commerce will still occur but it will be less frequent and smaller valued trades.  This creates a cycle effect.  Less historical trade data means less visibility which means less commerce which means less historical trade data which means less visibi.... sorry I got stuck in a loop.

Currency Exchange exists.  It is exists for a reason.  The reality is that for most fiat currency users it is hidden.  If you buy an xbox for EUR (produced by a US company which pays profits/salaries/expenses in USD and built in China with costs in CNY) it is IMPOSSIBLE for currency exchange rates to not affect the sale price of your unit.  Now you don't see it because Microsoft does some rounding to make the price nice and "neat" (like 299.99 EUR) but those factors are going on behind the scene all the time.  If the exchange rates deviate too much they will have to reprice (or more likely not have a price drop because the exchange rate fluctuation ate into the price drop margin).

Long story short there will never be a scenario where an entire economy is in BTC.  The entire US economy (used by 300M people and backed by the power of legal tender) isn't isolated from international exchange rates.

Oh and stop complaining about "too much speculation" (this is in general and not to the post I am responding to).  The speculative market is what creates liquidity. Sellers must sell, buyers must buy it is speculators who can do both and leave standing orders.  Case in point the US GDP is ~$15T annually.  Guess what the USD Forex trade volume is ....  ~$5T.  Sounds like a lot huh er wait that is PER DAY.  US "real economy" $15T annually, USD currency exchange $5T a day or $1.825 quadrillion dollars annually.

Now some people say what happens when fiats fail.  Well it is unlikely they will all fail at the same time.  80% of all fiat currencies have already failed.  The history of fiat currencies is a never ending fail train.  Say the USD fails, then the CNY may rise as a reserve currency, 30 years later China implodes and the EUR2 becomes the most traded currency, 30 years later the reformed United States issues a new gold backed currency which is considered a safe haven.   Still in the hypothetical scenario where no fiat currencies exist (an unlikely scenario and most likely will be after your grand children are dead) something else will be the metric for value.  Maybe it is gold. BTC:GLD ratio or electricity BTC:XEC. I made that symbol up BTW.


 

[SOSLOVE868]

To give you an extreme example - if everybody stops selling bitcoin, the price is infinite. If nobody buys bitcoin, the price is zero. No funding needed. Please study price discovery mechanisms before you make conclusions like that.

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  ... If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

Fiats are dead , it may be happened 100 years later, so what we doing now is generating wealth for our next generations.

Amen, the clock is ticking for the current system. Change is coming in every sense of the world, from technological, to social, to environmental. Nothing can stop it.

Hopefully , one world one currency, that can result in less war, all people will definitely benefit from it. Can it become possible ? Nobody got the answer.
However, I can't see any possibility of this ,if there are still existing of countries.

[antimattercrusader]

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

No currencies are the most traded good.

Say I will sell you 1 ounce of gold for 20 Bitcoins.  Is that a good deal?  Lets pretend no USD/BTC exchange rate is available.  Well the only way to know would be to compare all the others goods and services you can get for 20 BTC and try to come to some rationalization of value.  Now here is the funny part.  Likely in your mind what you will do is something like this.

So I can get a 10 steam games for 1 BTC.  Steam games (discounted) tend to run $5 to $10 ea so lets say $7 so 10 steam games is $70.  Therefore 20 BTC is 200 steam games or $1400.  Yeah I guess that is a good deal.

The problem with that is that it is horribly inefficient.  With little price visibility commerce will still occur but it will be less frequent and smaller valued trades.  This creates a cycle effect.  Less historical trade data means less visibility which means less commerce which means less historical trade data which means less visibi.... sorry I got stuck in a loop.

Currency Exchange exists.  It is exists for a reason.  The reality is that for most fiat currency users it is hidden.  If you buy an xbox for EUR (produced by a US company which pays profits/salaries/expenses in USD and built in China with costs in CNY) it is IMPOSSIBLE for currency exchange rates to not affect the sale price of your unit.  Now you don't see it because Microsoft does some rounding to make the price nice and "neat" (like 299.99 EUR) but those factors are going on behind the scene all the time.  If the exchange rates deviate too much they will have to reprice (or more likely not have a price drop because the exchange rate fluctuation ate into the price drop margin).

Long story short there will never be a scenario where an entire economy is in BTC.  The entire US economy (used by 300M people and backed by the power of legal tender) isn't isolated from international exchange rates.

Oh and stop complaining about "too much speculation" (this is in general and not to the post I am responding to).  The speculative market is what creates liquidity. Sellers must sell, buyers must buy it is speculators who can do both and leave standing orders.  Case in point the US GDP is ~$15T annually.  Guess what the USD Forex trade volume is ....  ~$5T.  Sounds like a lot huh er wait that is PER DAY.  US "real economy" $15T annually, USD currency exchange $5T a day or $1.825 quadrillion dollars annually.

Now some people say what happens when fiats fail.  Well it is unlikely they will all fail at the same time.  80% of all fiat currencies have already failed.  The history of fiat currencies is a never ending fail train.  Say the USD fails, then the CNY may rise as a reserve currency, 30 years later China implodes and the EUR2 becomes the most traded currency, 30 years later the reformed United States issues a new gold backed currency which is considered a safe haven.   Still in the hypothetical scenario where no fiat currencies exist (an unlikely scenario and most likely will be after your grand children are dead) something else will be the metric for value.  Maybe it is gold. BTC:GLD ratio or electricity BTC:XEC. I made that symbol up BTW.


 

Yes, you are right of course in reality. Sometimes I have to post a little un-reality though to maintain sanity

I don't think BTC will ever be the only currency. However, some other forum of currency is on the horizon at some point though. Perhaps bitcoin, or something like it, or a new concept. I don't know. As the world globalizes, 100-500-1000 years from now, I imagine whatever medium exchange is used for humanity to transfer and quantify resources will be global. At that time, perhaps there will be some type of purchasing power index to describe it's value in relation to goods/services, as we have now with the dolloar and other fiats.

I guess that is basically what you just said.

[antimattercrusader]

They also allow people with different political ideals to migrate to the area that best suits their life style desires. I am actually very afraid of what a world without nations would be like... if I don't agree with the "World Government" where can I go? At least now, there are many different countries in which to choose, none are perfect but we at least have choices.

That said, we as humans, need to come together to some degree... I don't know what the solution is.

[SOSLOVE868]

To give you an extreme example - if everybody stops selling bitcoin, the price is infinite. If nobody buys bitcoin, the price is zero. No funding needed. Please study price discovery mechanisms before you make conclusions like that.

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  ... If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

Fiats are dead , it may be happened 100 years later, so what we doing now is generating wealth for our next generations.

Amen, the clock is ticking for the current system. Change is coming in every sense of the world, from technological, to social, to environmental. Nothing can stop it.

Hopefully , one world one currency, that can result in less war, all people will definitely benefit from it. Can it become possible ? Nobody got the answer.
However, I can't see any possibility of this ,if there are still existing of countries.

A universal currency is unlikely, although a dominant currency is very likely. And no, that in itself would have no bearing on the tendency to wage war. The reason that borders persist is that they are money-making machines. Borders create opportunities for arbitrage for select market participants.

An universal currency 100% is too optimistic, hopefully to see it when we get relationships with aliens.....

[SOSLOVE868]

They also allow people with different political ideals to migrate to the area that best suits their life style desires. I am actually very afraid of what a world without nations would be like... if I don't agree with the "World Government" where can I go? At least now, there are many different countries in which to choose, none are perfect but we at least have choices.

That said, we as humans, need to come together to some degree... I don't know what the solution is.

In some countries , if they do not agree with their government they might also get endanger of their life.

I mean that even when we eliminating the countries we still can get party to instead who to presenting our desires...So just mean one world with many many party, electing each 5 years ...how about this ideal ? haha

[antimattercrusader]

They also allow people with different political ideals to migrate to the area that best suits their life style desires. I am actually very afraid of what a world without nations would be like... if I don't agree with the "World Government" where can I go? At least now, there are many different countries in which to choose, none are perfect but we at least have choices.

That said, we as humans, need to come together to some degree... I don't know what the solution is.

In some countries , if they do not agree with their government they might also get endanger of their life.

My point exactly. This is not good on a local level, much less a world wide level.

Update to your update:
Yes, but at least with my current perspective, the world is highly divided on their desires. Some people love socialism, some love capitalism, some people are pot smoking hippies and want to live in the forest and enjoy free love. My point is, if that one world government is a democracy, 50.01% of the population would get what they want (Kind o f) while the remainder will be unhappy. Actually, I know it's much more complex than this, but it makes my point.

Double Update:
Maybe planet colonization will be possible so myself and other libertarians can go there and mind our own business

[SOSLOVE868]

They also allow people with different political ideals to migrate to the area that best suits their life style desires. I am actually very afraid of what a world without nations would be like... if I don't agree with the "World Government" where can I go? At least now, there are many different countries in which to choose, none are perfect but we at least have choices.

That said, we as humans, need to come together to some degree... I don't know what the solution is.

In some countries , if they do not agree with their government they might also get endanger of their life.

My point exactly. This is not good on a local level, much less a world wide level.

Update to your update:
Yes, but at least with my current perspective, the world is highly divided on their desires. Some people love socialism, some love capitalism, some people are pot smoking hippies and want to live in the forest and enjoy free love. My point is, if that one world government is a democracy, 50.01% of the population would get what they want (Kind o f) while the remainder will be unhappy. Actually, I know it's much more complex than this, but it makes my point.

Double Update:
Maybe planet colonization will be possible so myself and other libertarians can go there and mind our own business

Needless to say , if with democracy and world government , election will possibly based on race, I can say that Chinese has superior advantage, because their population base.

I never feel that Bitcoin can instead of Fiats ,but one currency also will be benefited most of people in earth.