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Author Topic: History of difficulty?  (Read 3614 times)
Smalleyster
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July 03, 2011, 09:51:15 PM
 #1

I have searched this site and the web in general for some numerical history of difficulty to no avail.

I have a small test rig that over the course of a week has generated 50% less BTC/day at the end of the first week.

Does that mean that difficulty is increasing by a factor of 2 everry week? If so I have no interest in mining gear.

According to my rough calculations anything over 5%/week increase in difficulty makes mining unprofitable.

Does anyone know where I can find numerical values for difficulty increases over the last 3-6 months? Or a chart?

Thanks!

Feel like investing in a Miner?:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30044.msg377773#msg377773
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k
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July 03, 2011, 09:54:21 PM
 #2

try here for a chart
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

or this query on the block explorer site will give you the raw data (you can save it as a .csv and then open in a spreadsheet app)
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016
Smalleyster
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July 04, 2011, 02:55:47 AM
 #3

Thank You!

I think mining is dead meat:

05-Feb   40.24%
15-Feb   52.47%
25-Feb   37.06%
05-Mar   -9.47%
05-Apr   19.38%
20-Apr   12.15%
30-Apr   18.76%
05-May   43.54%
15-May   55.07%
20-May   78.15%
05-Jul   30.44%
15-Jul   54.59%
20-Jul   57.27%

The dates are my rough calculations from eyeballing the graph:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

The percentages are increases in dificulty from the previous difficulty number.


Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.

Feel like investing in a Miner?:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30044.msg377773#msg377773
A soup to nuts newbee system for a secure, portable USB wallet (free instructions):
NoobHowTo: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27088.msg341387#msg341387
1bitc0inplz
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July 04, 2011, 03:20:55 AM
 #4


Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.


No need to worry, this next increase looks to only be 1.5 million from the current 1.3 million. Yeah, it's bad, but not a another double... thank goodness.

Mine @ http://pool.bitp.it - No fees, virtually 0 stales, what's not to love!
Chat with us @ #bitp.it on irc.freenode.net
Learn more about our pool @ http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12181.0
bgok
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July 04, 2011, 03:22:01 AM
 #5

Those charts are awesome!
Stephen Gornick
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July 04, 2011, 05:22:06 AM
 #6

Difficulty spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

I think mining is dead meat:

It was actually just a bit worse in April -- but certainly now near the lowest levels seen.
  - http://tvori.info/bitcoin/charts  (see the second chart, "all time".  Profit charted in green.)


Smalleyster
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July 04, 2011, 11:57:27 AM
 #7

Good stuff Steven, thank you!

Feel like investing in a Miner?:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30044.msg377773#msg377773
A soup to nuts newbee system for a secure, portable USB wallet (free instructions):
NoobHowTo: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27088.msg341387#msg341387
BTstarter
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September 16, 2013, 06:44:15 AM
 #8

Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.

It always can get more worse... Wink

13-07-2010    93.11%
16-07-2010    300.04%

Or sometimes it can get better...

15-08-2011    -4.40%
30-08-2011    -1.55%
13-09-2011    -1.26%
27-09-2011    -3.76%
14-10-2011    -13.09%
31-10-2011    -18.03%
14-11-2011    -0.91%
29-11-2011    -8.54%

You'll never now...

It still doesn't stop me from mining!

BTC: 19gVBsow4fePVzBXSrztJX6E4BrW1KAxT2
crazyates
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September 16, 2013, 04:49:27 PM
 #9

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc#gid=0

Tips? 1crazy8pMqgwJ7tX7ZPZmyPwFbc6xZKM9
Previous Trade History - Sale Thread
bitcoiner49er
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September 16, 2013, 06:07:46 PM
 #10

3/1/2013       4,367,876   19.63%
3/14/2013     4,847,647   10.98%
3/24/2013     6,695,826   38.13%
4/5/2013       7,673,000   14.59%
4/17/2013     8,974,296   16.96%
4/29/2013    10,076,293   12.28%
5/12/2013    11,187,257   11.03%
5/26/2013    12,153,411    8.64%
6/5/2013      15,605,633   28.41%
6/19/2013    19,339,258   23.92%
6/29/2013    21,335,329   10.32%
7/11/2013    26,162,875   22.63%
7/22/2013    31,256,960   19.47%
8/5/2013      37,390,000   19.62%
8/13/2013    50,810,000   35.89%
8/25/2013    65,750,060   29.40%
9/4/2013      86,933,017   32.22%
9/14/2013   112,628,548   29.56%

Homo doctus is se semper divitias habet
aminorex
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September 18, 2013, 02:06:26 AM
 #11

It's basically linear until June, then exponential, a straight line on a log chart, thereafter.  As long as the number and quality of fabs cranking out ASICs keeps going up, it stays exponential.  When that tops out (in late November, at my guess)  the increase becomes linear again, or approximately so -- some factors of maturing delivery channels may offer compounding growth for a while, but at a low rate.  The interesting question, then, becomes:  What will the slope and intercept of that line be?   I have no data to estimate KnC or HashFast delivery volumes in Q4.  I do have a Cointerra January order numbered #888, which puts that unit roughly in the middle of the 3rd petahash delivered by Cointerra.   If KnC and HashFast deliver at a similar rate, scaled by their chip speeds, I'm thinking in terms of a difficulty around 1,200mm in January.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 18, 2013, 10:34:42 AM
 #12

If you want to be perfect in this field, then you have to try charts. It is helpful in increasing the knowledge about your related field.
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