Kobradobra's pick (NBA, NHL, tennis)

[kobradobra]

Hi, decided to start a thread with betting tips. I'll try to beat the line of Bitcoinrush

1 bet = 1 unit

I'll start with CHI - UTAH (or UTAH @ CHI). I'm from Europe so we usually write a home team first. But i'll use and NA format (Utah at Chicago).

Utah - Chicago: Utah (-4) @ 1.91 (-110) by BitcoinRush

Why: CHI is surely tanking for Ayton/Doncic/Bamba and 4th win in a row would be well against season strategy, while Utah struggling in last matches mostly because of schedule. The CHI offense will find it hard to get cheap points. CHI overperfoming in offense last 3 matches, so it's due to a slip. Utah should get their shit together after 3 losses in a row.  

Overall: -1.0

[kobradobra]

Chicago at Winnipeg: Winnipeg to win* @1.75 (-134) by BitcoinRush

Why: Even when Jets were a non-playoff and Chicago were a Western leader this matchup was a toss-up. Winnipeg won 4 out of 5 their last encounters and also lost only once in regulation time at home this season. CHI are just in decline and barely won their last 3 matches against outsiders.  

*- OT and SO included

Overall: -2.0

[kobradobra]

Lakers at Cleveland: Lakers +9,5 @1.95 (-105) by BitcoinRush

Why: LA are playing nice defense in last three and looks like Ball guy is finally stepping up. CLE ATS record at home is 2-12-1 and looks like Wade is out again and maybe Love too. Lakers bench is just much better and team improved after the last break.

Overall: -1.05

[kobradobra]

NBA. Miami at Charlotte: Miami to win @2.71 (-171) by BitcoinRush

Why: Heat are playing decent ball bar a horrible 4th quarter vs Portland and are 8-6 at road this season. The only loss on a road to team with negative record (current) was in 1st match of the season. Miami won 2 out of 4 last in Charlotte, while Hornets are struggling with injuries - even though Kemba, Batum and Kaminsky are going to play this one, their are far from their physical best. Good value here.

Overall: +0.66  +2=0-2

[kobradobra]

NBA. LA Clippers at Washington: over 209,5 @ 1.9 (-109) by BitcoinRush

Why: Both teams are in Under trend last games: LAC is 5 out 7 on the road and WSH 6 out of 7 overall. The only OVER game for Wiz were...at Clippers. WSH underperfomrning in offense too often and with Wall back it might change. The Clippers will rely on 3s with Gallinari and Rivers out.

Overall: -0.34  +2=0-3

[kobradobra]

NHL. Montreal at Ottawa (Winter Classic): Under 5.5 @1.87 (-116) By BitcoinRush

Why: Both teams lacks truly skilled offensive and fast players which could be critical in Winter Classic. Ottawa will rely on their physicality and try to keep composure in D. Montreal inconsistent in offense in last 7: 2, 6, 10, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 5 out of 6 last Sens matches went Under.

Overall: +0.53 +3=0-3

[kobradobra]

NBA. Indiana at Brooklyn: Indiana (-3) @ 2.00 (+100) by BitcoinRush

Why: Indiana barely lost to OKC and DET in last in two un-favourable matchups, but was close to winning despite poor FG and 3PG. Brooklyn is way too dependable on 3P shooting and playing fast tempo which is suitable for IND style. Also IND lost only ONCE (OKC) to a team under .50 (current record).

Overall: +1,53  +4=0-3

[kobradobra]

NBA. Philadelphia at Chicago: Phila -2,5 @ 1.99 (-101) by BitcoinRush

Why: Chicago won 5 in a row, with 4 out 5 wins in clutch. Team has been shooting lights out by its own standards in last 5 and it surely won't last forever. Meanwhile Phila lost 5 out 6, with 4 out of 5 losses in clutch time...So this meeting should even up this trends. Also Phily lost ONLY ONCE on a road to a team under .50 (current) - it was @ SAC when D'aron Fox hit a game winner and Phily blew a two possession lead in last minute.

Overall: 0,53  +4=0-4

[kobradobra]

NBA. Boston at Indiana: Boston to win @ 1.75 (-134) by BitcoinRush

Why: Indiana is struggling against teams with good defense. For instance, Pacers record vs teams from top-10 in D efficiency 2-7 and only 2 wins were in money time (97-94 vs Spurs, 107-104 vs Toronto), while record vs teams from top-10 in Offensive efficiency is 7-4. Also this back to back and Boston is a bad matchup (lost 4 in a row).  

Overall: +1,28 +5=0-4

[kobradobra]

NHL. Minnesota at Ottawa: Ottawa to win @1.87 (-115) by  BitcoinRush

Why: A must-win game for Ottawa after horrible streak (1 win in 13 matches). Sens won two in a row, while Wild lost two in a row. Minny won only 1 out of 9 last game in regulation time and 4 times at SO/OT and 5 in a row in OT/SO in general, so the team due to loss streak. Also Wild  won only 2 out of last 6 road games.

Overall: +0,28 +5=0-5

[kobradobra]

NBA. Indiana at Atlanta: Over 214,5 @ 1.92 (-109) by BitcoinRush

Why: If Hawks managed to score 110 against Heat and top over with 214 points...imagine what it would like against Indiana. Both team are shooting good 3 and are awful at defending perimeter allowing their opponents to score more than 37,5% of threes combined in 63 shots...While scoring more than 38% in 54 shots combined. 3-pointer fest here.

Overall: -0,72 +5=0-6
 

[kobradobra]

NBA. Phoenix at LA Clippers: Phoenix to win @2.76 (+176) at BitcoinRush

Why: This is just a great value. Why? Because Clippers winning this match only if Lou on fire, and I give a 50/50 chance for that, not 65/35 as bookies suggest. Phoenix are actually much better without defensive hole named Booker and also a quite good at road this season (7 wins already). LAC are just absolutely awful offensively, scoring only 42.4% FG in December.

Overall: -1,72 +5=0-7

[kobradobra]

Detroit at Dallas: Under 197.0 @ 1.97 (-101) by BitcoinRush

Why: Hello 26th and 20th teams by PACE. Both Dallas and Detroit averages 98 pps at December with Dallas shooting better than season averages, and Detroit worse. But the thing is that Dallas allowing to score nearly 46% of opponents 3s this month which is ridiculous. This percentage should go down and Pistons, who are overperforming in offense in last 3, due to a slip.

Overall: -2,72 +5=0-8

[kobradobra]

San Antonio at Utah: Under 197 @1.90 (-110) by BitcoinRush

Why: Two teams with lowest pace in NBA. San Antonio also holds one of the best defensive efficiency in the league and will play without Kawhy and Tony. Utah allowed their opponents to score more than 230 in last who combined, so surely coach Snyder will find a solution to end this kind of D.  

Overall: -1,72 +6=0-8

[kobradobra]

NBA. Washington at Brooklyn: Washington (-5) @ 1,94 (-106) by BitcoinRush

Why: Washington is still the best in the league in defending perimeter and last match here Wizards limited BKN to 23.3% shooting from 3. They lost because of own awful shooting (4/22). Now, with Wall back and improving match by match, Washington is expected to win this match comfortably. This team will find their mojo sooner or later.

Overall: -2,72 +6=0-9

[kobradobra]

NBA. New Orleans at Orlando: Over 219,5 @ 2.0 (-100) by BitcoinRush

Why:Two teams from bottom-8 in terms of defensive efficiency and top-8 by pace. They are shooting more than 60 threes per match combined with 37+%, while both are also bottom-10 in terms of 3P% allowed with nearly 58 attempts per game from opponents. Should be really fun...

Overall: -3,72 +6=0-10

[kobradobra]

NBA. New Orleans at Miami: Miami to win @2.91 (+191) by BitcoinRush


Why: You can't trust New Orleans in a game vs WNBA team...The most inconsistent team in the league and also is quite bad at road  (lost 7 of last 10). The Heat probably will be gassed since the team is lacked bunch of key players, but Spoelstra is good at embarrassing low-end league coaches like Gentry and Heat is actually playing their best basketball this season in last few weeks, so odds are very attractive.  

Overall: -4,72 +6=0-11

[kobradobra]

NHL. Ottawa at Florida: Ottawa to win @2.15 (+115) by BitcoinRush


Why: While both OTT and FLA are on the bottom of the East, Sens clearly have a chance to climb higher. Team scored at least 3 in last 4 games and could have been at winning streak in not a strange lapses at Tampa and vs MIN. Fla also improved, but the team won last two due to unusual great performances from Riemer. With Sens' improved offense it might be not the case this match.  

Overall: -5.72  +6=0-12

[kobradobra]

NHL. Buffalo at Carolina: Over 5.5 @ 2.14 (+114)

Why: Teams played few days ago and it was a 4-4 draw in regulation. The Buffalo holds the worst offensive record in the league, and now is close to tanking-mode. So there is a room for improvisations. Carolina is actually one of the hottest team in the league right now even if the lost to TOR (1-8). The goalfests is a really common thing in PNC Arena.

Overall: -4,58 +7=0-12

[kobradobra]

Portland at Lakers: Over 200 @ 1.94 (-106)

Why: Portland vastly underperforming in last few matches in offense and will play without Lillard. But IMO it leads to more team-offense with threes. LAL will be without Ingram, so I expect many threes from them too. LAL leads league in pace, so even with average FG% teams should be able to top 200.

Overall: -5,58 +7=0-13