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中国三成家庭高负债 住房贷款负债创新高
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Topic: 中国三成家庭高负债 住房贷款负债创新高 (Read 102 times)
terry1xxx
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中国三成家庭高负债 住房贷款负债创新高
December 14, 2017, 06:20:12 AM
#1
大陆官方调查显示,全国三成家庭高负债,近一半省份家庭杠杆率超50%,福建高达105%。外界关注大陆家庭债务风险。杠杆率是衡量负债风险的指标,家庭部门杠杆率的定义为:住户贷款/GDP。
中共社科院国家金融与发展实验室、国家资产负债表研究中心11月下旬发布的《三季度中国去杠杆进程报告》指,中国家庭杠杆率从二季度的47.4%上升到三季度的48.6%,合计今年前三个季度上升了3.8个百分点。
以家庭贷款与家庭存款衡量家庭部门杠杆率为例,截至今年9月,福建、广东、浙江、上海、江苏、重庆、贵州、宁夏、江西、安徽、广西、西藏、北京、云南、新疆、甘肃16个省市的杠杆率均逾50%,接近全国省份的一半。
而如果以全国家庭杠杆率59%为参照,则杠杆率高于全国的省市有11个,也占到全部省份的三分之一。其中,家庭杠杆率最高的福建达105%。
据《财经》杂志12月11日报导,今年三季度末,全国家庭部门贷款为39.1万亿元,同比增长23.2%,远超全部银行贷款12.5%的增速。而全国家庭贷款又以房贷为主,显示有部分非住房贷款违规流入了楼市。
易居房地产研究院9月19日发布的研究报告显示,3月以来,全国新增“异常”短期消费贷款约3700亿元,估计其中至少有3000亿元流入楼市,占到新增短期消费贷款总额的30%。
上海财经大学高等研究院博士后宁磊告诉《财经》记者,不少中国居民买房还会进行民间借贷,或向亲戚朋友借贷,因此,只考虑银行贷款可能会低估中国家庭的房贷压力,低估中国家庭债务风险。
报导称,从统计数字看,2016年是转折点,中国当年出现了家庭存款增量逐渐低于家庭贷款增量的现象。
据山川网12月11日报导,按照国际经济学领域对于家庭债务杠杆率的解读,良性的杠杆率数值应在50%以下。
根据中国的实际情况,家庭杠杆负债率在60%已经足够高,超过60%的省份,属于较高风险的区域。
而现在在这一红线之上的有福建、广东、浙江、上海、江苏、重庆、贵州、宁夏、江西、安徽、广西11个省级行政区。其中,福建的家庭负债杠杆率超过100%,成为全国唯一从全省层面上陷入家庭收入“入不敷出”的省份。
外界关注大陆家庭债务风险
《财经》杂志报导,天风证券相关分析指,2006年至2016年,中国家庭房贷支出与收入比从33%上升到了67%,下一步要警惕发生局部地区家庭债务风险,中国家庭债务的“灰犀牛”已经隐约动起来了。
中共国家金融与发展实验室副主任、国家资产负债表研究中心主任张晓晶分析称,近两年中国家庭杠杆率迅速飙升,导致风险加大。
上海财经大学高等研究院院长田国强认为,现在中国家庭债务风险问题被官方忽视了,“其实家庭债务风险可能比企业债和地方债风险还应引起关注”。
专家们认为,关注家庭债务风险,既是为了家庭的金融资产安全问题,更与宏观经济发展前景有关,家庭高债务最终会导致经济大风险。
据香港《经济日报》12月13日报导,中国三成家庭高负债,家庭负债比率日益升高,引发的风险难以预料。因担忧其成为爆发点,中共官方近期严厉整治网络小额贷款公司。但从整体上看,中国家庭债务风险问题仍然不容忽视
Udonis Haslem
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Re: 中国三成家庭高负债 住房贷款负债创新高
December 14, 2017, 06:43:26 AM
#2
只考虑银行贷款可能会低估中国家庭的房贷压力,低估中国家庭债务风险。
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