2 Scenarios resulting from SD: Bearish vs. Turbo Bearish with Lasers on Top

[Spekulatius]

Ok, so this is only just speculative and may never become reality (we'll see in a few hours;)

TLDR at bottom

Current Phase in process: PHASE ONE

2 Market mechanics at play:

1. Share holders want to sell their free Bitcoins from the pay out (or fractions thereof) at the best price possible

2. Everyone else trying to make a quick profit sells in anticipation of it, in order to re-buy at the bottom.

Phase ONE: During the hours leading up to the release of payouts (about 12pm on 2013-07-18 UTC) every speculator tries to dump their BTCs before the rest does. Europe wakes up first around 9 am UTC, then around 1pm UTC the US east coast wakes up with another slush of BTCs released on the markets.
The final price before first funds are released will be of great importance for what happens next: if the price is still pretty high, many SD payees will be tempted to sell their fresh BTCs at good rates. If price has come down pretty low, like 70 USD many will probably hold off, waiting for better rates. If on the other hand price has already been driven down below 50 USD, which I consider the edge to mass panic sells, the payees will most likely feel pressed hard to get rid of their BTCs quick, as long as it still "is worth something". Of course this sell off may not last long and will bounce back eventually but all of you, who have witnessed a panic sell before know that ppl tend to not act rationally under those circumstances.

Phase TWO: Funds are released, payees act according to current price

Im not sure about the amounts of BTCs to be sold immediately after funds release as they greatly depend on the situation at hand.

How likely are those scenarios in your opinions?

TLDR: If we stay above 50 before funds are released, we will be fine

[notme]

Ok, so this is only just speculative and may never become reality (we'll see in a few hours;)

TLDR at bottom

2 Market mechanics at play:

1. Share holders want to sell their free Bitcoins from the pay out (or fractions thereof) at the best price possible

2. Everyone else trying to make a quick profit sells in anticipation of it, in order to re-buy at the bottom.

Phase ONE: During the hours leading up to the release of payouts (about 12pm on 2013-07-18 UTC) every speculator tries to dump their BTCs before the rest does. Europe wakes up first around 9 am UTC, then around 1pm UTC the US east coast wakes up with another slush of BTCs released on the markets.
The final price before first funds are released will be of great importance for what happens next: if the price is still pretty high, many SD payees will be tempted to sell their fresh BTCs at good rates. If price has come down pretty low, like 70 USD many will probably hold off, waiting for better rates. If on the other hand price has already been driven down below 50 USD, which I consider the edge to mass panic sells, the payees will most likely feel pressed hard to get rid of their BTCs quick, as long as it still "is worth something". Of course this sell off may not last long and will bounce back eventually but all of you, who have witnessed a panic sell before know that ppl tend to not act rationally under those circumstances.

Phase TWO: Funds are released, payees act according to current price

Im not sure about the amounts of BTCs to be sold immediately after funds release as they greatly depend on the situation at hand.

How likely are those scenarios in your opinions?

TLDR: If we stay above 50 before funds are released, we will be fine

Or..... Shareholders put their Bitcoin into ASICMiner and altcoins and wait until the bear trap plays out.

[notme]

Beartrap set.... I hear it has tasty berries and salmon .

[N12]

Beartrap set.... I hear it has tasty berries and salmon .

It's the continuation of the bearish trend following the bull trap's conclusion.

Also, where's the honey?

[Melbustus]

I'm hoping for an over-reaction by myopic trigger-happy bears or weak-minded thinkers, but most people will probably see this for what it is: a long-term non-event.

Edit: Furthermore, in dollar terms, this is an 8 figure deal. The fact that such a large deal was done IN BITCOIN is great.

[blackreplica]

In case anyone is wondering where the OP's title came from:


My guess is simply a 3 way split between

1) those who receive their coins and immediately sell them...causing a short term downward price spike - negative for price

2) those who receive their coins and immediately buy other stock with stable returns (ASICminer seems top choice in this regard)...causing a short term spike in AM share price - negative for price

3) those who take their coins and do nothing - neutral for price

Being as objective as I possibly can, I do not see anything but a price drop on the horizon. The severity of the price drop will depend on the proportion of 1,2, and 3 out of the 150K BTC SD sales proceeds. I should also add that if the price drop is severe enough, it could trigger another bear market selloff like the one that took us to 66...only this time it may go lower

[BitPirate]

In case anyone is wondering where the OP's title came from:


My guess is simply a 3 way split between

1) those who receive their coins and immediately sell them...causing a short term downward price spike - negative for price

2) those who receive their coins and immediately buy other stock with stable returns (ASICminer seems top choice in this regard)...causing a short term spike in AM share price - negative for price

3) those who take their coins and do nothing - neutral for price

Being as objective as I possibly can, I do not see anything but a price drop on the horizon. The severity of the price drop will depend on the proportion of 1,2, and 3 out of the 150K BTC SD sales proceeds. I should also add that if the price drop is severe enough, it could trigger another bear market selloff like the one that took us to 66...only this time it may go lower

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Clearly flying turbo bulls are shining lasers into the bears' eyes.

Bears fail again.

[Spekulatius]

In case anyone is wondering where the OP's title came from:

Gentlemen may I introduce to you the very rare and deadly: Ursus laserus vorheesae!
They only show in times of extreme bullish dispair and are always out for an easy catch.

Favorite prey: Pigs and uncautious bulls straying off to far from the herd.
Did everybody see the burning stables in the background?

[granolageek]

SD is actually irrelevant. What happened is that I posted an ask a couple of bucks above the current bid, expecting to get it overnight and then buy back in ten bucks lower. This caused the price to go straight down.

That's the way my world works.

[byronbb]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

[Equilux]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

Exactly.

This idea has been almost the sole reason for the sudden price drop, and I think that's simply not the case.

[vokain]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

Exactly.

This idea has been almost the sole reason for the sudden price drop, and I think that's simply not the case.

Eh, perhaps I'd like some fiat, but the idea that everyone will is silly, I agree.

[kjj]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

Exactly.

This idea has been almost the sole reason for the sudden price drop, and I think that's simply not the case.

To a first approximation, everyone talks their book.  They start with a conclusion and then try to justify it.  Everything in the speculation forum is either post-hoc logic, or voodoo (chart analysis).

[BitChick]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

I would think the smart ones would want to hold until the price rices to sell???  Of course there may be some that do not trust Bitcoin, but even in the last week the price has been over $100 so they would be crazy to sell if it is lower than that I would think.

[RationalSpeculator]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

Considering their sdice stock suddenly went up 50% (from 0.0020 market to 0.0035 buyout) some would already automatically have sold some sdice stock as to lower their exposure.

However now everybody got coins instead of stock, and a lot of coins considering it's 50% more coins than the value of the stock was just a few days ago.

So some will want to lower their exposure to bitcoins as it just went up a lot for them.


We are talking around 150,000 btc that went to shareholders. Say they want to sell 20% of those btc that is around 30,000 btc that will be sold.

Also all these coins were likely bought recently, so the price was likely pushed up artificially, and is now partly going back down.

[Tzupy]

It would take a 26,300 BTC dump to take the price below 80.
I guess we'll know tomorrow. I just cancelled my buy order at 86.xx. What if it drops below 80 tomorrow?

[massivebitman]

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

Considering their sdice stock suddenly went up 50% (from 0.0020 market to 0.0035 buyout) some would already automatically have sold some sdice stock as to lower their exposure.

However now everybody got coins instead of stock, and a lot of coins considering it's 50% more coins than the value of the stock was just a few days ago.

So some will want to lower their exposure to bitcoins as it just went up a lot for them.


We are talking around 150,000 btc that went to shareholders. Say they want to sell 20% of those btc that is around 30,000 btc that will be sold.

Also all these coins were likely bought recently, so the price was likely pushed up artificially, and is now partly going back down.

30k BTC is a drop in the ocean.

Maybe the price will dip a bit more, but I'd say it's pretty safe to stay above 80. Maybe even 90

[massivebitman]

I think the real risk as somebody has said is there will be less people buying.

Thus we're likely to see a gradual slide as nobody is making these huge buys that caused the recovery to 90

[Akka]

Does nobody but me find it a bit scary, that a single entity could acquire ~1% of all Bitcoins in existents, in the matter of days(?) without sending the price stratospheric?

[Spekulatius]

Does nobody but me find it a bit scary, that a single entity could acquire ~1% of all Bitcoins in existents, in the matter of days(?) without sending the price stratospheric?

Who says days? We dont know WHO bought WHEN what amount and if they were smart they would have bought on down terms or from a large BTC holder that wants to cash out off exchanges, maybe it even IS an early adopter, who knows? It may even be Satoshi himself that wants to eradicate this gambling hell off the map of the internet, that has his name printed on its back?