Bitcoin Price Cycles

[iamTom123]

The peculiar thing about Bitcoin’s price is that it has these cycles. First, a slow and steady accumulation by people who understand the tech and buy it when it is ignored as worthless. This is usually after the price had just “crashed”.

Then it starts to reach a point where the media picks up its growth. And then, a parabolic buying frenzy where even your grandma starts buying Bitcoins.

Finally, after reaching a dramatic peak, it finally pops and drops, leaving only those who believe in the tech and support it even after a crash. Back to square one,with a bigger base price and a larger user base. Rinse, repeat.

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I think this cycle based on the very history of Bitcoin as well as any other boom-and-bust stories in the past. Just like the housing boom, there will come a time when things will stop the immense growth and then there would be retreats but it does not mean that the industry will be gone for good (just like a balloon that popped). Now, does it mean that soon the next cycle is going to be the pop time? Or should we believe that Bitcoin is really different and can be an exemption to this historical truth, even for this time? I am hoping it is the latter but of course to get warned to have a balanced decision should not be deprived to anyone.

[teilwalL05]

It surely can repeat again and this increase is very unfamiliar for us but it involves manipulations from whales, It is pretty obvious how we reach more than the $10,000 value and then skyrocket up to the $17,000, and right now I really think we are experiencing a resistance and when the buying frenzy can no longer be sustain again, an avalanche may triggered because of panic selling, Or it can become the other way around because people now learned from past mistakes.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

...
 Now, does it mean that soon the next cycle is going to be the pop time? Or should we believe that Bitcoin is really different and can be an exemption to this historical truth, even for this time? I am hoping it is the latter but of course to get warned to have a balanced decision should not be deprived to anyone.

Very interesting indeed. As for you question, those kind of models are useful for us to understand the past but we can’t predict the future with them. We can think it is very likely that something like what happened in the past is going to happen again in the future but we can’t be sure of that, and can’t predict when will happen, if it happens.

[BrewMaster]

The peculiar thing about Bitcoin’s price is that it has these cycles. First, a slow and steady accumulation by people who understand the tech and buy it when it is ignored as worthless. This is usually after the price had just “crashed”.

Then it starts to reach a point where the media picks up its growth. And then, a parabolic buying frenzy where even your grandma starts buying Bitcoins.

Finally, after reaching a dramatic peak, it finally pops and drops, leaving only those who believe in the tech and support it even after a crash. Back to square one,with a bigger base price and a larger user base. Rinse, repeat.

umm. lets see what we have got on the charts. maybe you are right.

yeah, i am starting to see what you mean. the cycle starts with the price rising slow at first, where they accumulate then it rises where the rally takes place and finally it ends with a drop where market corrects.

easily visible on bitcoin charts:









..... oopsie. i made a mistake. these are not bitcoin charts. this are literary any other asset in the world which have the same pattern. sorry
it is not so peculiar anymore, is it?

[Lancusters]

It surely can repeat again and this increase is very unfamiliar for us but it involves manipulations from whales, It is pretty obvious how we reach more than the $10,000 value and then skyrocket up to the $17,000, and right now I really think we are experiencing a resistance and when the buying frenzy can no longer be sustain again, an avalanche may triggered because of panic selling, Or it can become the other way around because people now learned from past mistakes.

Why do you think that will be panic selling? A lot of bitcoin users use it as an asset for savings. Even at lower prices they will still keep their coins not sell them cheap. After six months or a year the price will increase and they will return their losses. The price of bitcoin is doomed to constant growth because the number of coins is limited.

[cellard]

This is still nothing compared to the earlier bubbles, we would need to hit $30k to start approaching levels of increase similar to the initial 3$ to $30 tier rises in terms of ratios and we aren't seeing such price increases at the same speeds.

Bubbles are too tricky to time, we just know that bitcoin is going to keep going up to do, so the smart thing to do is to hold and whatever happens happens. If it has to crash then so it be, just buy the dip. But it could go to $40k or more of all we know. Timing tops is simply impossible, you either hold through it or not. Not holding may be a bigger risk than selling now because "the graph looks bubble-ish", which is what people has been doing since $5000 or even lower.

[Cobalt9317]

The bitcoin value is only repeating the same cycles for the reason that some people buy it for future investments while other sell it because it reached their expected price.

Gradually in time the bitcoin value would be extraordinary in history because it is very popular and the popularity lead to increasing of value.

[randythered]

The bitcoin value is only repeating the same cycles for the reason that some people buy it for future investments while other sell it because it reached their expected price.

Gradually in time the bitcoin value would be extraordinary in history because it is very popular and the popularity lead to increasing of value.

The price will always trend upwards for as long as this can happen, as long as there people who believe the current price is cheap and it can go higher then the value will always trend upwards. Let's also not forget the fixed supply which over time will actually decrease slowly as bitcoins are lost with broken computers and forgetting passwords etc.

[omonuyak]

I think this cycle is going to repeat itself again as many historical data is pointing towards that. Bitcoin has been doing well this days and I am expecting a very serious clash days to come and it might even went down to $10,000 next year after touching  $25,000! I think we should still praying for growth now that bitcoin is still at the infancy stage and we will need this pump to get bitcoin more popular.

[949miner]

There is big fever about bitcoin now, everybody want to buy because they are probably afraid of missing this opportunity, it is the real FOMO in it's maximum expresion.

When it touched more than $10k for the first time, everybody had the necessity to join because they didn't wanted to miss this opportunity anymore, that is why it increased more than five thousand dollars in just a few days.

But now it is stable, it does not means that it is not volatile anymore, it will keep increasing only that there are a lot of buy and sell walls between $16,000 and $17,000. And it is normal.

$10,000 value and then skyrocket up to the $17,000, and right now I really think we are experiencing a resistance and when the buying frenzy can no longer be sustain again

[2double0]

There were those accumulators and whales who understood the tech and bought in when nobody took it seriously, and those times were different when they had the singularity of being the biggest possessors of Bitcoins and we don't know whether they still hold that number or not. I think the scenario is completely different to that of what we saw after the 1k value crash and watching what's currently going on, I can say that the match is up and people have just started to jump into this. It's not just that Bitcoin is rising, alts are also going to see the real advantage of it sooner as when it will stop at a certain point, everyone will probably use altcoins to cut their losses over fees they are currently paying.