Price forces?

[jspielberg]

So... is bitcoin price on mt. gox pretty much governed by whales humping (with the micro-trash bot trades random walks between the whales)?

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[phoenix1]

yes  

[jspielberg]

In that case there isn't much to speculate.  The whales will do what the whales will do and the price will reflect their actions.

I guess one could assume that whales would want a high bitcoin price because... well being whales they have a lot of bitcoin and $s.

Was the big sell off a couple of days ago to panic the herd and shake loose hands free?

[phoenix1]

In that case there isn't much to speculate.  The whales will do what the whales will do and the price will reflect their actions.

I guess one could assume that whales would want a high bitcoin price because... well being whales they have a lot of bitcoin and $s.

Was the big sell off a couple of days ago to panic the herd and shake loose hands free?

No idea 
Whales will move the price whichever way they think will maximise their profits
It's all a big game to them ... pump and dump ... dump and buy ... same shit different day
 

[highcoin]

The whales can shake the price in the short term, but it will be the black swan cyprus like events that will give Bitcoin a value and reputation as a "global fiat escape currency". Whenever a government tries to take their citizens fiat, citizens will convert fiat to Bitcoin to avoid losing it to taxes. Bitcoin will be the Cayman Islands of currency one day. 

[wopwop]

Currently it costs 12$ to make a transaction in bitcoin, lmao

compare that to paypal's 3% fee and you need to spend more than 400$ avg (in bitcoin) on each transaction to, as a consumer, have an advantage with using bitcoin, lmao

[Tzupy]

Another force, which may or not be one of the whales, is made up of those capable to launch a DDoS attack to manipulate price.
Just now there's a 20s - 30s trading lag on MtGox, while volume is very low, IMO there is a DDoS ongoing at MtGox. Purpose unknown yet.

[JimboToronto]

Currently it costs 12$ to make a transaction in bitcoin

The only costs I've ever had relating to a Bitcoin transaction were the $3 flat rate bank fee to anonymously deposit dollars into my exchange account, and the trading fees which range from 0.6%-1.5% depending on the exchange.

If that's too much, just go to the nearest Satoshi Square. Here in Toronto it's at Nathan Philips Square on Monday evening 5:00-8:00pm. Cost - $0

[Pruden]

wopwop is talking about the global costs, taking inflation into account. I guess he divided the value of the 25 BTC created every block by the number of transactions in a block. Those costs are real, only diluted among every existing bitcoin.

[notme]

wopwop is talking about the global costs, taking inflation into account. I guess he divided the value of the 25 BTC created every block by the number of transactions in a block. Those costs are real, only diluted among every existing bitcoin.

Right, but there is a big difference between average cost and marginal cost, especially for the person making transactions.  For that person $12 is not representative of much.

[wonkytonky]

i'm realy tired of this wales.. the only way to trade is .. do small trades between big moves of the wales.
or trade on longer terms like weeks.

[codesuela]

Currently it costs 12$ to make a transaction in bitcoin

The only costs I've ever had relating to a Bitcoin transaction were the $3 flat rate bank fee to anonymously deposit dollars into my exchange account, and the trading fees which range from 0.6%-1.5% depending on the exchange.

If that's too much, just go to the nearest Satoshi Square. Here in Toronto it's at Nathan Philips Square on Monday evening 5:00-8:00pm. Cost - $0

the actual price is way higher.
open an account at an exchange, get verified, buy coins at rate x with a 1% fee. make the transaction possible btc has fluctuated and it is now rate y 5% lower. so you have to pay a higher price. the other party sells the coins, again for a 1% fee and at a different price. it would be way lower if people would keep bitcoins around but the only people who do are early adopters who got rich from mining and speculators. doesnt help that I would not trust the oldest exchange as far as i can spit. keeping money there or at any other exchange is insane because it can be gone  at a moments notice. i kept money at bitcoin24 and it was seized by the german and polish government and will hopefully released in the near future. this risk is also one of the the things you did not take into account when talking about the cost of a transaction.

[niothor]

i'm realy tired of this wales.. the only way to trade is .. do small trades between big moves of the wales.
or trade on longer terms like weeks.

Move to Scotland =))))))))))))

[Birdy]

wopwop is talking about the global costs, taking inflation into account. I guess he divided the value of the 25 BTC created every block by the number of transactions in a block. Those costs are real, only diluted among every existing bitcoin.

Since the inflation rate is already known and basically set in stone, I have a hard time referring to the new coins as "costs". Anyone who isn't trying to troll should have a hard time with it as well.

Displaying it as the cost right now is trolling, yes.
But the number is quite interesting, because it's the fee that a transaction would have, if there would be no block reward anymore.
$12 is probably way too much, so one of those things has to happen:

1) more transaction are included in each block
2) mining gets more cost-efficient (and that will happen for sure, like in every industry)
3) miners make less profit