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[MarquiseMuseum]

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[hazukison]

It seems price is being kept around 16-18k and not allowed to pass up or down to trigger signals for third party investors to enter or exit, could it be that this power buyer is accumulating BTC to push it up towards 30k before dumping/shorting, since they know that the market wants to touch base on 10k or lower if it hadn't been for them scooping up everything before the BTC can correct naturally?

So we might get a false signal to enter on weak buyside when in fact its a manipulated rise, charts look very weak in my opinion, manipulated.

Stop talking crap "since they know the market wants to touch base" does the market "talk" to you then? If this really is part of adoption then we should never see 10k ever again. I'm sick of seeing these posts constantly being made about how the market is all doom and gloom! Like I said if it really is adoption then we've got one hell of a ride to go yet. And if you bothered to notice BTC has been constantly correcting everytime the price went up it always came down by a few grand in one go before jumping back up. Infact the biggest I can remember recently we dropped 6K! Yet it was back up in no time.

[ktabb]

It seems price is being kept around 16-18k and not allowed to pass up or down to trigger signals for third party investors to enter or exit, could it be that this power buyer is accumulating BTC to push it up towards 30k before dumping/shorting, since they know that the market wants to touch base on 10k or lower if it hadn't been for them scooping up everything before the BTC can correct naturally?

So we might get a false signal to enter on weak buyside when in fact its a manipulated rise, charts look very weak in my opinion, manipulated.

This behavior is perfectly normal for not only bitcoin, but any other asset. After such insanely extreme volatility that we've seen recently, it's not unusual for it to relatively calm down. The people who wanted to buy bitcoin already bought bitcoin, and now something needs to happen to encourage people to buy more.

To be honest, buying bitcoin is an incredible hassle and the issues with ridiculously high transaction fees are likely to drive people towards futures instead of bitcoin itself. Since the futures are cash settled, this won't have any effect on bitcoin price. People who are newer to bitcoin will strongly prefer to just log on to something established and reliable like interactive brokers or td ameritrade and buy bitcoin futures (which are regulated, which is another plus for an investment) than to deal with the hassle and insanely high transaction fees of buying bitcoin directly on the block chain.

It seems that bitcoin buying interest has become lower, and I will bet that it will go even lower.

As far as manipulation goes, I don't think any has happened yet but it is inevitable. The bitcoin market is far less liquid than the derivative market will eventually be. One day, some hedge fund is going to buy a couple billion dollars worth of bitcoin futures, and then buy like 10 or 20 million dollars worth of bitcoin directly just to push the price up. After that, they could dump their futures and open a short position, and then sell their bitcoin directly. It would be so easy for a massive hedge fund to invest billions in bitcoin derivatives while spending pennies to manipulate the market itself (which is unregulated and still kind of ambiguous legally).

[namjar]

I can not understand why everybody wants to see spikes of more than $1000 - $2000 everyday, they are not healthy for bitcoin, they are killing bitcoin because they are exposing it to be crasheable at any time.

This behavior is perfectly normal for not only bitcoin, but any other asset. After such insanely extreme volatility that we've seen recently, it's not unusual for it to relatively calm down.

Lets just wait a bit, i dont think that it will suddenly be touching thirty thousand dollars, because that is a huge rate, and how is going to buy more than 300 billion dollars worth of bitcoin in order to drive the price to a x2?

I dont think that a regular person will do it, not even a big bank, because that amount of money is not easy to find.

[d5000]

In the last weeks I have observed many buyers - that very likely were trading bots, because of their predictable behaviour - that bought at "critical levels" after a downmove (mostly on round numbers, divisible by 50), and so managed to put a "floor" on the price.

That may be someone trying to "manipulate" the price to the upside.

But on the other hand, it may be simply normal trading behaviour. If you are buying at a critical level and the price afterwards goes up, then you make profit. So my theory is that these trading bots are constructed that way: if they can "back" the price at a certain level, then they can sell higher.

[DaMut]

i think you get it wrong mate,
they're purposely did that to create a confusion and uncertainty.
it's all not about accumulation because they're already did that a while ago.
an accumulation phase always happened a year ago or two years to make a long run.
so right now we're on the edge of the uncertainty,many people believe the price will move to around $20.000
and at the same time many people fear it and believe the price will go down to around $10.000.

chart looks very weak ? yeah the chart looks very weak,
and you know what ? that kind of chart already exist whenever we're making our move from $700 until now.
so the chart can not tell us what will happen but instead it's only a map.
a map about our structure for the past few years and its growth in the price,nothing more than that.

[ktabb]

I can not understand why everybody wants to see spikes of more than $1000 - $2000 everyday, they are not healthy for bitcoin, they are killing bitcoin because they are exposing it to be crasheable at any time.

This behavior is perfectly normal for not only bitcoin, but any other asset. After such insanely extreme volatility that we've seen recently, it's not unusual for it to relatively calm down.

Lets just wait a bit, i dont think that it will suddenly be touching thirty thousand dollars, because that is a huge rate, and how is going to buy more than 300 billion dollars worth of bitcoin in order to drive the price to a x2?

I dont think that a regular person will do it, not even a big bank, because that amount of money is not easy to find.

So this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how prices move. In order to double the price of bitcoin, you would need FAR less than $300 billion. The amount needed to push the price to double its current price has nothing to do with its market cap.

The price of bitcoin is whatever the last person to buy bitcoin (or sell) paid. Think about an order book. Imagine if there were very few orders, and they were spread out. What I mean is, there may be $1 million worth of orders to buy bitcoin between $17k and $18k, and then there might be $1.5 million worth or orders between $18k and $19k, and say there's like $10 million worth of orders between $19k and $25k. You could buy all of these orders for $12.5 million in this hypothetical scenario, which would result in the price of bitcoin being $25k. The market cap has all of a sudden increased by almost $150 billion but all it took was $12.5 million. Moving the price of an asset depends on the volume of trades, not the market cap.

Basically the market cap of an asset does not mean the total value of all of that asset is really that amount, and the amount of buying or selling interest required to move the price is correlated with volume and has nothing to do with market cap.

A completely unrelated side note that I think is kind of interesting is that even though Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world on paper, because of this logic, he is FAR less rich than Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and many other billionaires. The vast majority of his fortune is in Amazon stock, and he would not be able to move that money out of AMZN without crashing the price and devaluing the remainder of his fortune. If he wants to diversify and move his money out of AMZN, he has to do it slowly over many, many years. If he sold even 10% of his fortune, it would likely cut the price of the remainder of his fortune in half or maybe even worse.

[ktabb]

I can not understand why everybody wants to see spikes of more than $1000 - $2000 everyday, they are not healthy for bitcoin, they are killing bitcoin because they are exposing it to be crasheable at any time.

This behavior is perfectly normal for not only bitcoin, but any other asset. After such insanely extreme volatility that we've seen recently, it's not unusual for it to relatively calm down.

Lets just wait a bit, i dont think that it will suddenly be touching thirty thousand dollars, because that is a huge rate, and how is going to buy more than 300 billion dollars worth of bitcoin in order to drive the price to a x2?

I dont think that a regular person will do it, not even a big bank, because that amount of money is not easy to find.

So this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how prices move. In order to double the price of bitcoin, you would need FAR less than $300 billion. The amount needed to push the price to double its current price has nothing to do with its market cap.

The price of bitcoin is whatever the last person to buy bitcoin (or sell) paid. Think about an order book. Imagine if there were very few orders, and they were spread out. What I mean is, there may be $1 million worth of orders to buy bitcoin between $17k and $18k, and then there might be $1.5 million worth or orders between $18k and $19k, and say there's like $10 million worth of orders between $19k and $25k. You could buy all of these orders for $12.5 million in this hypothetical scenario, which would result in the price of bitcoin being $25k. The market cap has all of a sudden increased by almost $150 billion but all it took was $12.5 million. Moving the price of an asset depends on the volume of trades, not the market cap.

Basically the market cap of an asset does not mean the total value of all of that asset is really that amount, and the amount of buying or selling interest required to move the price is correlated with volume and has nothing to do with market cap.

A completely unrelated side note that I think is kind of interesting is that even though Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world on paper, because of this logic, he is FAR less rich than Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and many other billionaires. The vast majority of his fortune is in Amazon stock, and he would not be able to move that money out of AMZN without crashing the price and devaluing the remainder of his fortune. If he wants to diversify and move his money out of AMZN, he has to do it slowly over many, many years. If he sold even 10% of his fortune, it would likely cut the price of the remainder of his fortune in half or maybe even worse.

For whatever it's worth, it looks like the last 24 hours volume on Bitfinex was about $1 billion worth of bitcoin, so it would probably require a few hundred million dollars to significantly move the price of bitcoin, which is certainly doable by many institutions.