.

[phoenix1]

Thought provoking thread.  Thanks for sharing chodpaba.  Is there a solution to this volatility "problem", or will it forever be a crutch, of sorts (even if we imagine a perfect world where everyone is using bitcoin for everything)?  

Economic n00b here.  Please be nice.  

I think that a logical step in the evolution of the ecosystem would be cryptos that are designed to hedge that volatility. It would be nice to be able to create synthetic instruments to do so without having to deal too much with legacy systems outside the crypto universe. One such instrument that might be useful is one that has an inflation rate that responds to Bitcoin difficulty, since difficulty has a relationship to price. 

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment iI trust neither ...

[phoenix1]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW 

[phoenix1]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW 

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

[phoenix1]

You're excused 

[notme]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW 

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

[phoenix1]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you really don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician
'
EDIT : The 'wealthy entities' ARE the market forces right now ... there is fuck all else going on ... so they play their games ...

[notme]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

[phoenix1]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

ROFLMAO ... thankyou for the confirmation
Nice to see that senior members are fully in favour of milking new entrants for every last drop.
'Oh, it was market forces' ... LOL ... no, it was bullshit manipualtion on NO VOLUME

Sleep well ...

[FNG]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

ROFLMAO ... thankyou for the confirmation
Nice to see that senior members are fully in favour of milking new entrants for every last drop.
'Oh, it was market forces' ... LOL ... no, it was bullshit manipualtion on NO VOLUME

Sleep well ...

Are you sleeping well while the train leaves the station?

[wachtwoord]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

ROFLMAO ... thankyou for the confirmation
Nice to see that senior members are fully in favour of milking new entrants for every last drop.
'Oh, it was market forces' ... LOL ... no, it was bullshit manipualtion on NO VOLUME

Sleep well ...

Are you sleeping well while the train leaves the station?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEnUhjmwjlI

[xxjs]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

Agree. For some time, there will be players who can move the market. But differently from the bank led markets, the players will have take risk into account. The banks play high with others's money, and their risk is socialized.

If you had bitcoins equivalent to a million or two, would you risk it all in a pump/dump or a dump/pump scheme?

[oda.krell]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

Agree. For some time, there will be players who can move the market. But differently from the bank led markets, the players will have take risk into account. The banks play high with others's money, and their risk is socialized.

If you had bitcoins equivalent to a million or two, would you risk it all in a pump/dump or a dump/pump scheme?

Excellent point. Related one: if you're a wealthy individual/hedge fund/any entity with substantial amounts of money, being generally of the opinion that bitcoin has some chance of success and therefore planning to make an investment, would you (a) take some very high risk  gamble, possibly risking your entire investment, or would you (b) try to buy in at an early point at a comparably low price, while keeping slippage as low as possible.

I'm not saying there are no speculators of the first category, that try to execute some high risk/high reward manipulation schemes, but the more paranoid in here seem to believe that everyone with a lot of money entering bitcoin is on a mission to manipulate the market, and initiate wild price swings, when in reality, most of those will probably simply try to buy in as cheap as possible, and then wait.

[davidgdg]

Interesting thoughts. I agree that as a speculative scarce asset bitcoins will always fluctuate in value, but in time the growth phase will be over and it will settle in a place where the value is not driven purely by speculation anymore. How long this will take, that I don't know. I'd say that if Bitcoin is still up and running and useful, this will happen during the next decade. This decade is all about the growth phase, which might reach its peak around 2020.

When the intensive growth phase is over and we reach a sort of semi long term top (if we still have inflating paper monies at the time, we would eventually go over that top too in relation to those paper monies) and make a correction down, which is when the volatility of Bitcoin starts to go down in general. Bitcoin would be more like gold but gold on steroids (as it's actually useful and convenient as a medium of exchange).

Obviously this is all thin ice speculation since we simply don't know if anyone uses Bitcoin in 2020 anymore. But as long as there isn't a clear cryptocurrency replacement for Bitcoin, or a reason for one, I see no reason to assume that people wouldn't use Bitcoin in 2020. What I do know is that cryptocurrencies will be there, and they will play a larger and larger role in world economies, that is pretty much guaranteed.

Later this century we will see gold & silver largely devalued as asteroid mining comes into play (trust me, sooner or later it is coming) which will be the time when cryptocurrencies are actually the only scarce monetary assets in existence, which will put them in a very respected position. That is the final seal that guarantees cryptocurrency domination.

I'm not so sure about that timeline. As long as Bitcoin inflation is higher than the prevailing inflation rate for CB issued currencies I would count that as the early stage of the growth phase. If inflation rates stay low it could take a decade to get to the crossover point, if interest rates go up then of course it could happen sooner. But I would look for it to be an event that would trigger a rotation that will dwarf all prior transfers. By then, however, I expect that we will have effective compliments to Bitcoin that can be used to hedge against the risks of such a transition.

My feeling is that market participants are not overly concerned with the fine details of the bitcoin rate of inflation. In fact I suspect some of them would be surprised to learn just how high it presently is (~ 13% p.a.). The (correct) broad perception that the rate is falling, will continue to fall to near zero levels within the medium term and that the ultimate supply is fixed, is more important. But I think most important of all is the assumptions that are made regarding the rate of adoption of BTC in the wider economy, since ultimately that is the fundamental driver.

[wachtwoord]

The inflation is zero if you consider that there are 21 Million Bitcoins out there. A large portion are not owned by anyone yet however.

[flagel8]

... Later this century we will see gold & silver largely devalued as asteroid mining comes into play (trust me, sooner or later it is coming) which will be the time when cryptocurrencies are actually the only scarce monetary assets in existence, which will put them in a very respected position. That is the final seal that guarantees cryptocurrency domination.

Someone who actually gets it! With a name like Technomage, you might expect that. I used to worry about the combination of cheap nuclear energy (but after Fukushima, not so much) and transmutation. But asteroid mining seems closer, especially with the forward looking D.D. Harriman, I mean P. Diamandis, not to mention E. Musk.

Gold will become an industrial metal, and one much less useful than silver. It’s just matter of timing. Therefore, the rise of Bitcoin, or its successor, is also unavoidable. Unless we somehow (NTDL) discover AND monetize stable trans-uranium elements...

[notme]

It would be nice to be able to have more trust in the big BTC stakeholders than in governrnents and central banks. At the moment I trust neither ...

Welp, you know—that is the jungle we live in. And Bitcoin will grow up building its immune system as it meets each challenge along the way. Which means, Bitcoin adopters will.

Phew, that solves all of my dilemmas .... I'm all in to this manipulated price, RIGHT NOW  

If you find yourself in an ocean, ride the waves.

If you find you have a conscience , listen to it

If you have paranoid delusions of powerful entities controlling price against market forces, see a therapist.

If you don't see it, you are blind ... see an optician

Market forces will ensure that those who trade are exposed to appropriate risk.

ROFLMAO ... thankyou for the confirmation
Nice to see that senior members are fully in favour of milking new entrants for every last drop.
'Oh, it was market forces' ... LOL ... no, it was bullshit manipualtion on NO VOLUME

Sleep well ...

Sorry, but this is how markets work.  If you can't understand that, don't trade.  There is plenty of money to be made with a simple DCA strategy.

You can't have manipulation if you don't have greedy people who think they are smarter than they really are.