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Author Topic: More difficulty = higher BTC price is an urban legend  (Read 5585 times)
AngelusWebDesign
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July 04, 2011, 05:04:43 PM
 #1

Here are the facts. 

Before the hacking of Mt. Gox, BTC was 17.50. Then it re-opened a week later, and pretty much stayed around 17 after a short dip.

Then 16 became the new 17.
Then 15 became the new 16.

NOW, we have 14 as the "new 15".

(End plain facts. Begin discussion.)

I don't know about you, but I don't like this trend! Are we hitting a saturation point of BTC users? Is there anything we can do to reverse this trend? Has everyone here told all his family/friends about Bitcoin yet?

I realize that BTC users are a small fraction of the population -- but how many people would ever use BTC? Those who don't rely on mainstream media for their news, for example? Any sheep who rely on CNN for their news are going to think BTC is unstable, hacked, dropped to .01 for days, then slowly crawled its way back up over a period of weeks, etc. (Media stories are VERY biased against Bitcoin -- in some cases, downright UNTRUE)

It reminds me of how they have "20-can cases" of pop now, priced the same as the good old 24-can case. 20 cans is the new 24!
Ah, progress! In other news... The chocolate ration was increased from 3 grams a day to 2 grams a day. All hail Big Brother!
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grod
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July 04, 2011, 05:12:33 PM
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And yet, it costs around $6 to produce a bitcoin now (hardware ammortization over an expected 3 month lifespan + power).  That's still a healthy profit margin, so I'd say $14 is overpriced today.  $32 when the cost to produce was around $2 was pure insanity.

Both BTC prices and difficulty are still catching up to the results of a $32/BTC bubble.

What really happened is a large amount of people did math at $32/btc, bought piles of hardware and now *need* to sell every bitcoin they produce as soon as they're being produced.  In effect the daily supply increased, since previously a much larger % was hoarded.

That, and it's the weekend effect.  The Ponzi Pyramid will be growing again once people can deposit $ to MtGox tomorrow or the day after.  If you have funds at mtgox $14 is definitely not a bad price point for a 3 day gamble.  Much lower risk than buying hardware and waiting for it to ship.

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July 04, 2011, 05:15:58 PM
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i don't really know why the cost to produce them should scale with the price. there are 6 million bitcoins out there which were basically free. why would you want to make these people rich? no reason at all. i'm starting to lose hope. i told myself i won't sell my mined coins below $20, but we'll probably never get there again.

the thing with bitcoins is - those who trade with them do it because they can turn them into $. they have value because of the benefits drug dealers see in them. wow.

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July 04, 2011, 05:19:30 PM
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A lot of people having been saying that Difficulty increases as price increases, not the other way around. I think June showed some supportive evidence to that theory.
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July 04, 2011, 05:26:30 PM
 #5

It's going to be the end of bitcoin!  Sell all your rigs at 50% off to Angelus, you pimple face 17 year old geeks living in your mom's basement using your mom's credit cards to buy graphics cards.  Game over man
AngelusWebDesign
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July 04, 2011, 05:33:18 PM
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With the exception of the last post, good points were made.

I agree that price might keep falling, even while difficulty increases (albeit at a slower rate than during May-June).  As long as there's profit to be made, some people will do it. Obviously, a different group of people will mine for $1/day compared to those who will mine for $35/day (which is basically everyone, even non-PC-techs!)

Many have pointed out that various distributed computing projects had support over the years, even though the $ payout was precisely 0.

On the other hand, I don't think people went out and bought hardware for ClimatePrediction.Net, SETI@home, or other BOINC/distributed computing projects. Moreover, I'm sure they didn't have multiple rigs running 24/7, with extra fans/air conditioning/etc.

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July 04, 2011, 06:08:04 PM
 #7

Anybody here familiar with a head-n-shoulders trend. Look at the mt gox closing price chart for the past 3 months. Were on the left shoulder. I will bet on it. The value will go up. There's the value that were overlooking: fun & addiction. It's the reason zynga is so successful. The price will go up.

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July 04, 2011, 06:14:42 PM
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With the exception of the last post, good points were made.

I agree that price might keep falling, even while difficulty increases (albeit at a slower rate than during May-June).  As long as there's profit to be made, some people will do it. Obviously, a different group of people will mine for $1/day compared to those who will mine for $35/day (which is basically everyone, even non-PC-techs!)

Many have pointed out that various distributed computing projects had support over the years, even though the $ payout was precisely 0.

On the other hand, I don't think people went out and bought hardware for ClimatePrediction.Net, SETI@home, or other BOINC/distributed computing projects. Moreover, I'm sure they didn't have multiple rigs running 24/7, with extra fans/air conditioning/etc.



Just to note, you forgot one of the largest distributed computing projects out there, Folding @ Home http://folding.stanford.edu/

Many, many supporters of that project (including myself) have purchased quantities of hardware, with sole intention of running dedicated 24/7 folding machines. I've been folding for 3+ years now, and have invested more hardware into that project than I have for my own purposes. Mainly because it's a good cause, and some friendly competition, and I enjoy messing with hardware.. Of course, had I found out about bitcoin much much earlier, I probably would have been buying hardware for it instead. Sadly, optimal hardware for folding is opposite for what works best for mining, so I've started selling off folding gear and buying up mining gear instead...

neways.. jsut thought I'd throw a mention for F@H out there.
AngelusWebDesign
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July 04, 2011, 06:16:04 PM
 #9

I'd sure be ecstatic if the price went up.

I don't want to do what you're doing in your avatar...
AngelusWebDesign
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July 04, 2011, 06:18:28 PM
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With the exception of the last post, good points were made.

I agree that price might keep falling, even while difficulty increases (albeit at a slower rate than during May-June).  As long as there's profit to be made, some people will do it. Obviously, a different group of people will mine for $1/day compared to those who will mine for $35/day (which is basically everyone, even non-PC-techs!)

Many have pointed out that various distributed computing projects had support over the years, even though the $ payout was precisely 0.

On the other hand, I don't think people went out and bought hardware for ClimatePrediction.Net, SETI@home, or other BOINC/distributed computing projects. Moreover, I'm sure they didn't have multiple rigs running 24/7, with extra fans/air conditioning/etc.



Just to note, you forgot one of the largest distributed computing projects out there, Folding @ Home http://http://folding.stanford.edu/

Many, many supporters of that project (including myself) have purchased quantities of hardware, with sole intention of running dedicated 24/7 folding machines. I've been folding for 3+ years now, and have invested more hardware into that project than I have for my own purposes. Mainly because it's a good cause, and some friendly competition, and I enjoy messing with hardware.. Of course, had I found out about bitcoin much much earlier, I probably would have been buying hardware for it instead. Sadly, optimal hardware for folding is opposite for what works best for mining, so I've started selling off folding gear and buying up mining gear instead...

neways.. jsut thought I'd throw a mention for F@H out there.

Yeah I forgot to mention that one.

I've actually been into distributed computing projects off & on since early 2007.  I used to visit "distributedcomputing.info" every day looking for new projects, especially any that PAID. Of course, there were none. Ever.

I even checked that site a year ago -- no mention of Bitcoin!!  I can't believe it.
Digigami
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July 04, 2011, 06:30:55 PM
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Yeah I forgot to mention that one.

I've actually been into distributed computing projects off & on since early 2007.  I used to visit "distributedcomputing.info" every day looking for new projects, especially any that PAID. Of course, there were none. Ever.

I even checked that site a year ago -- no mention of Bitcoin!!  I can't believe it.


Yeah same here.. I checked distrubutedcomputing.info occasionally as well, don't remember ever seeing bitcoin on it.

Funny how there still is no metion of bitcoin there
coinvestor
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July 04, 2011, 06:37:32 PM
 #12

Have you guys ever heard of Popular Power? They first attempted to monetize a project just like f@h

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AngelusWebDesign
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July 04, 2011, 06:38:44 PM
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Goes to show you -- that site is as worthless as a chocolate teapot.

I hold it against them that I didn't find out about Bitcoin in July 2010. That's when I went there, and installed "Boinc" on my new Linux system, and did processing for one of the distributed computing projects for a few days until I got bored with it -- actually, not really bored, but more "why am I wasting electricity on this"?  

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July 04, 2011, 06:47:16 PM
 #14

If your so scared of bitcoins, why don't you go collect namecoins.

MrWizard
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July 04, 2011, 07:46:03 PM
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Have you guys ever heard of Popular Power? They first attempted to monetize a project just like f@h

Coinvestor (Ryan)

Popular Power promised that some day they would begin to pay for work we did for them.  They never did implement a pay for work scheme.
However, I did manage to earn 25 cents for my computing resources at CPUshare.com (now long defunct). 

"I walked into the room dripping in Bitcoins.  Yea dripping in Bitcoins."
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July 04, 2011, 08:24:59 PM
 #16

I think if implemented correctly that system could flourish now. There will come a time when mini miners (under 5ghash) will lose value and therefore lose interest. What to do with your hardware? Come to "blank" and they'll payout for processing power based on what you can offer in hash rate. Thoughts?

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July 04, 2011, 08:38:24 PM
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To get back to the original topic of the thread, it looks like now 13 is the new "14".

I hope a bunch of buyers come in on Tuesday...
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July 04, 2011, 08:44:26 PM
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There is not much really to discuss here. Supply is a lot bigger than demand right now, and that's the simple explanation why price is going down.

If you look at the chart since May you will notice that before the boom/bubble started we were basically at $10. This is pretty much where we are going now. I'm not saying we will drop $14 tomorrow and be at $10 by the end of the week. What I'm saying is that since there isn't any real fundamentals behind bitcoin and the fact that we had a first boom cycle,  price needs to ultimately correct itself, based on the fact that there isn't any new development for the real use of the coins right now. Demand for a fresh coins can't keep up with a constant supply and as a result price is adjusting. Until there's any news or a significant influx of new bitcoin  buyers willing to throw a total of few million $us at the market, price can't really start a new real uptrend.

Will anything change if we hit $10? Probably not, but we will see, if we ever get there. People need to realize that 2016 blocks at 50 BTC makes 100.800 BTC which at the moment translates into a demand for $1.411.200 of fresh hardcore cash every 2 weeks. Doesn't sound that much, but the fact that you can only use it on silkroad or buy alpaca socks with it, makes that $1.4mill a bit hard to find. Yes yes, I have seen all new services accepting bitcoins, but give me a break. Bitcoins needs time and legitimate people offering good deals, while people behind the project needs to make it a lot more user friendly.

All this daily or week to week analysis and/or constant posting it just shows that too many people were caught in a hype and that's a reason we had a bubble.

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July 04, 2011, 11:46:44 PM
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There is not much really to discuss here. Supply is a lot bigger than demand right now, and that's the simple explanation why price is going down.

If you look at the chart since May you will notice that before the boom/bubble started we were basically at $10. This is pretty much where we are going now. I'm not saying we will drop $14 tomorrow and be at $10 by the end of the week. What I'm saying is that since there isn't any real fundamentals behind bitcoin and the fact that we had a first boom cycle,  price needs to ultimately correct itself, based on the fact that there isn't any new development for the real use of the coins right now. Demand for a fresh coins can't keep up with a constant supply and as a result price is adjusting. Until there's any news or a significant influx of new bitcoin  buyers willing to throw a total of few million $us at the market, price can't really start a new real uptrend.

Will anything change if we hit $10? Probably not, but we will see, if we ever get there. People need to realize that 2016 blocks at 50 BTC makes 100.800 BTC which at the moment translates into a demand for $1.411.200 of fresh hardcore cash every 2 weeks. Doesn't sound that much, but the fact that you can only use it on silkroad or buy alpaca socks with it, makes that $1.4mill a bit hard to find. Yes yes, I have seen all new services accepting bitcoins, but give me a break. Bitcoins needs time and legitimate people offering good deals, while people behind the project needs to make it a lot more user friendly.

All this daily or week to week analysis and/or constant posting it just shows that too many people were caught in a hype and that's a reason we had a bubble.



Completely agree!

"I walked into the room dripping in Bitcoins.  Yea dripping in Bitcoins."
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July 05, 2011, 12:11:37 AM
 #20

Quote
More difficulty = higher BTC price

There's (at least) two ways to change this assertion in order to make it true (instead of false, which it is):

  • 1.) higher difficulty => lower price
  • 2.) higher price => higher difficulty

1.) is easy to argue: difficulty rises when people freshly investd in mining hardware. They want to recover their investment so they put the bitcoins on the market => higher supply => less value

2.) is also pretty clear: a high price creates incentive to mine and makes mining more profitable => people invest in mining hardware => difficulty rises

I never understood how higher difficulty would drive the price up.

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