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中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
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Topic: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了? (Read 109 times)
Kerwiner00
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中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 04:25:24 AM
#1
如果说其他行业的中层人员降级后仍可游刃有余的话,程序员中层降岗后,会不如自己新岗位上的同事。
近日,中兴网信员工欧某打开26楼办公室窗户纵身跃下,结束了42岁的生命。目前有多种说法,有说因股份转让价过低和人事部产生分歧,有说疑因内部宫斗 被离职,甚至还有消息说欧有精神方面的问题。尽管具体原因仍待进一步的核实,但却由此引发网上一波关于中年职场危机,特别是中年程序员危机的讨论。
一般来说,一个行业的收缩导致人员数量与结构的调整,大致可以用一个简单的模型来描述:行业规模缩减,行业人员减少,公司数量减少或规模缩减,进而导致 管理层岗位变少,原本的管理层,被迫降至转入下一级岗位。这种降岗机制层层传递,高层降为中层,中层降为基础管理岗,基础管理岗降为一线员工。与此同时, 由于行业规模的缩减,一线员工数量也在减少。于是,一线员工失业,同时,停止招收该行业的新毕业生。在这个模型中,一般来说,即便行业收缩,中层也不用愁 就业,仍可留在本行业中,最坏也不过是降岗。
不过,在程序员行业中,有一些特别的因素,导致了其不同于一般行业的现象。
35-45岁的中年人,学习能力下降明显。与此同时,这是一个新技术不断涌现的时代。一个人进入职场初期的技能、概念,过了20年后,已经完全不一样 了。程序员这个行业,更是把这个特点发挥到极致。此外,精力明显下降,不能熬夜,加之家务琐事缠身,高强度工作即便有意愿也很难付诸行动。如果说其他行业 的中层人员降级后仍可游刃有余的话,这个行业的中层降岗后,会不如自己新岗位上的同事。
所以,程序员密集的IT、通讯行业,很多中层员工就处于一个很尴尬的地位。即便勉为其难地接受,也会面临收入大幅度下降的心理适应问题。如果考虑到资产配置中较高的按揭比例,当资金链断掉,这就成为不可承受之重。
遗憾的是,行业的变化已经发生。
首先是需求在变。通讯行业的升级,对消费的刺激效应越来越小。某种程度上,现在的升级,不再是质的升级,而仅仅是数量的升级,这种升级的边际衰减非常明 显。简单地说,从2G升到3G,效用非常明显,会刺激人们的相关消费,而从3G到4G,带来的效用就相应变小,而从4G到5G,则会更小,因此带来的行业 增值也会相应变小。
更本质的是,技术发展的速度也在变缓。从上世纪50-60年代晶体管、集成电路发明开始,这一波技术爆炸已经持续了 70年。在持续了40年后,摩尔定律已经失效。人工智能虽然方兴未艾,但对人的替代与创造新的价值、扩大经济规模之间,效应还没有定论。更具体的,随着新 技术进入传统行业,改造传统行业,剩下的机会也越来越少,新技术的红利在慢慢被吃尽,与通讯相关的IT、互联网领域的创业也越来越难。
欧某坠楼事件之引起舆论如此的关注,正是离不开这样的一个背景。而不论产业如何变化,最好的应对之道,还是跟上产业和技术的潮流。技术进步总是充满未知,一切也皆有希望。
ldreligion
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Merit: 250
Re: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 04:41:33 AM
#2
个案而已,以他的资历要跳槽找下家不是什么难事,只是待遇有没有原公司好就不一定了。为这点事完全不值得跳楼。如果这都犯得上跳楼,那人家在公司做销售和基金经理的不知道要跳多少次楼了。这个人事发前曾报警说有人跟踪自己,监控录像中多次出现异常行为。我倾向于相信此人精神出现了些问题。
pretty-g
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Re: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 09:18:17 AM
#3
人到中年情况就是,目前的收入基本上都花在房子按揭上了,家庭花销上都要掐着指头过日子,收入比以前多了些,但是感觉比以前更穷了,又担心工作上不知道什么时候会不稳定,唉
murba
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Activity: 18
Merit: 0
Re: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 12:27:11 PM
#4
这个有点可怕啊。
cynosureli
Member
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Re: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 12:50:11 PM
#5
中国现在程序员到了35岁以后真是没有市场了啊。
dxypp005
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Activity: 212
Merit: 100
Re: 中兴网信员工坠楼事件背后:程序员中年危机来了?
December 18, 2017, 02:06:12 PM
#6
年薪没到7、80w以上的,千万别让老婆全职在家啊。哪怕每个月拿个4、5钱,各种公积金养老金也能负担点儿,至少买菜钱够了。我说的是普通老百姓的活法,还是要量力而行啊。
只有活着才有希望,其实岁数也不算太大吧,这个社会,只要你肯干,不会太穷的。可惜了,当然如果精神因素的话,另当别论。
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