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Author Topic: Why bitcoins are dropping, and will continue to do so  (Read 25677 times)
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July 05, 2011, 01:50:39 AM
 #21

I must object. Hight supply is a problem if you want the price not to drop (which is implied by OP). A lot of miners decided to join when the price was at $30. They mostly joined for a quick buck, not because of bitcoin and it's features (see troll post above). These people have to throw their mined coins to the market, to recoup their investment and pay utility bills.

But people are continuing to mine, the network hasn't stopped running because a few decided to stop.  Even after the cap is hit, transaction fees will get people to keep mining.

I didn't say anyone stopped mining. Mining is still profitable, even at an exchange rate of $5. I said many miners must sell their mined coins.

Just 3-4 months ago, one could mine 20 BTC per day with a €700 EUR machine. You need something like 20 GHash/s for that nowadays, that'll cost you $10.000, and if you look in this thread (watch out, hardware/cable porn): http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7216.msg321184#msg321184, you can see that people are doing this.

I don't think they make such an investment with some "spare fiat money" they have laying around and then just keep the coins, they sell them.

Yes, miners sell coins.  What is your point?  How is this a mark against Bitcoins at all?

Oh no, gold miners sell gold!!!  Gold will fail!!

Honestly, what point are you trying to make?
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July 05, 2011, 01:53:11 AM
 #22

I must object. Hight supply is a problem if you want the price not to drop (which is implied by OP). A lot of miners decided to join when the price was at $30. They mostly joined for a quick buck, not because of bitcoin and it's features (see troll post above). These people have to throw their mined coins to the market, to recoup their investment and pay utility bills.

But people are continuing to mine, the network hasn't stopped running because a few decided to stop.  Even after the cap is hit, transaction fees will get people to keep mining.

I didn't say anyone stopped mining. Mining is still profitable, even at an exchange rate of $5. I said many miners must sell their mined coins.

Just 3-4 months ago, one could mine 20 BTC per day with a €700 EUR machine. You need something like 20 GHash/s for that nowadays, that'll cost you $10.000, and if you look in this thread (watch out, hardware/cable porn): http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7216.msg321184#msg321184, you can see that people are doing this.

I don't think they make such an investment with some "spare fiat money" they have laying around and then just keep the coins, they sell them.

Yes, miners sell coins.  What is your point?  How is this a mark against Bitcoins at all?

Oh no, gold miners sell gold!!!  Gold will fail!!

Honestly, what point are you trying to make?

It's too hard to understand.  Nearly all new coins generated are sold.  That means there's a steady supply of coins being sold at market price.  If there isn't demand to meet that constant influx of sellers (and there isn't), then the price drops.

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July 05, 2011, 02:04:41 AM
 #23

I must object. Hight supply is a problem if you want the price not to drop (which is implied by OP). A lot of miners decided to join when the price was at $30. They mostly joined for a quick buck, not because of bitcoin and it's features (see troll post above). These people have to throw their mined coins to the market, to recoup their investment and pay utility bills.

But people are continuing to mine, the network hasn't stopped running because a few decided to stop.  Even after the cap is hit, transaction fees will get people to keep mining.

I didn't say anyone stopped mining. Mining is still profitable, even at an exchange rate of $5. I said many miners must sell their mined coins.

Just 3-4 months ago, one could mine 20 BTC per day with a €700 EUR machine. You need something like 20 GHash/s for that nowadays, that'll cost you $10.000, and if you look in this thread (watch out, hardware/cable porn): http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7216.msg321184#msg321184, you can see that people are doing this.

I don't think they make such an investment with some "spare fiat money" they have laying around and then just keep the coins, they sell them.

Yes, miners sell coins.  What is your point?  How is this a mark against Bitcoins at all?

Oh no, gold miners sell gold!!!  Gold will fail!!

Honestly, what point are you trying to make?

It's too hard to understand.  Nearly all new coins generated are sold.  That means there's a steady supply of coins being sold at market price.  If there isn't demand to meet that constant influx of sellers (and there isn't), then the price drops.

Yes, but remember that demand is increasing, very fast- more merchants are accepting it now than ever before.  Not even just online, but in physical shops.

And as for the supply, that will slow down as the difficulty increases, and ultimately when it caps off.
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July 05, 2011, 02:19:56 AM
 #24

Gold is different because there are a lot of good reasons to buy gold.  Not gonna bother listing them. 

Just because merchants are accepting bitcoin doesn't mean people are going out and buying bitcoins to spend at said merchants.  And guess what those merchants are doing a soon as they receive bitcoins as payment for goods and services?
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July 05, 2011, 02:34:18 AM
 #25

I'm pretty sure the same argument came up when Eftpos was first introduced.

"Why would I want to take around these cards to pay for things, nobody has any machines and cash is so much easier.."

Once the tech starts rolling out paying in BTC will be as easy as using your credit / eftpos card.  

Over the short term (12 - 24 months) yes I think you're correct, bitcoin will probably hover around its current exchange rate, because it is too inconvenient to use and there's no real reason to. But I think most of us care more about the long term outlook.

As a merchant from Australia selling software online I really want people to use Bitcoin, and will start offering discounts soon for people to use it. Since I started online paypal has been a huge thorn in my side, taking large transaction fees, huge currency exchange fees from USD -> AUD and having lots of "Buyer security" on software (basically meaning a buyer can request a refund for any reason and keep the software and there's nothing I can do about it because according to Paypal you can't prove you sent a digital product).
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July 05, 2011, 03:08:42 AM
 #26

Gold is different because there are a lot of good reasons to buy gold.  Not gonna bother listing them. 
Compelling argument. Roll Eyes

However gold isn't valuable because of it's intrinsic value, which is less than steel, but because of it's scarcity which gives it an actual value that is very high.

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Just because merchants are accepting bitcoin doesn't mean people are going out and buying bitcoins to spend at said merchants.
With Silk Road people have.

As for the other services, what they want isn't necessarily listed.
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And guess what those merchants are doing a soon as they receive bitcoins as payment for goods and services?
Convert it into Bitcoin, obviously because the market is new, and not very large.

As the market expands people will convert their BTC to USD less often, and a large portion of bitcoins can be spent on whatever it is they need.

There will be a lot of conversion at first, and then people will find the things they need still in the Bitcoin market, it's simple.
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July 05, 2011, 05:17:28 AM
 #27

Weather you agree with gambling or not, I think that the gambling aspect of Bitcoins (especially texas holdem) will give it a solid foundation at least.
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July 05, 2011, 05:44:00 AM
 #28

2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

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July 05, 2011, 07:57:34 AM
 #29

This, #1, is a complete bullshit assertion. Investors do invest in the risky assets, all the time. No risk = no payout. BTC is just that, a very volatile risky investment which you can add to your portfolio in very smallish percentage. Investors which invest in government bonds only never will make any money.

#2, as pointed out, could not be further from truth, too. Yes it's shady while the currency stabilizes, but just look at what kind of businesses were built around the gold rush sites in CA, Australia, and so on. Every currency has it's infancy, and big legitimate businesses will never ever start accepting a new currency right away - only small shops and underground operations. It has to grow, and that is the only way it will. As for convenience, blah, there's nothing more convenient right now.

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July 05, 2011, 01:10:17 PM
 #30


Just because merchants are accepting bitcoin doesn't mean people are going out and buying bitcoins to spend at said merchants.  And guess what those merchants are doing a soon as they receive bitcoins as payment for goods and services?

Bingo

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July 05, 2011, 02:52:36 PM
 #31

I would buy games, hardware, etc. with my Bitcoins if it was available in my country (Germany) - if there is a shop, I will buy my stuff with my BTC from there... no question.

But for now, keeping them or selling them is my only option - I do it for the fun anyways...

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July 05, 2011, 03:16:55 PM
 #32


Just because merchants are accepting bitcoin doesn't mean people are going out and buying bitcoins to spend at said merchants.  And guess what those merchants are doing a soon as they receive bitcoins as payment for goods and services?
Bingo
Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.
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July 05, 2011, 04:04:50 PM
 #33


Just because merchants are accepting bitcoin doesn't mean people are going out and buying bitcoins to spend at said merchants.  And guess what those merchants are doing a soon as they receive bitcoins as payment for goods and services?
Bingo
Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.

And the faster they convert to their nation's preferred currency, the faster bitcoin will fall in value.  Speculators and investors would see keen interest to sell as a signal that the price is going down.  They then wait for the price to fall.  Those people using bitcoin for real commerce are no doubt vastly outnumbered at the moment by miners and speculators willing to sell.

I'm watching bitcoin's price with interest as it falls through the $14 and $13 marks.  It's still going, at around $12.50 as I write this.  It may be partly related to the long weekend in the USA.  Bitcoin's price has historically fallen on weekends.  But something feels different this time.  Everyone expects the cycle to occur, and when it becomes common knowledge it's almost by definition not going to happen again for the same reasons.

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July 05, 2011, 04:06:35 PM
 #34

2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

Yes but it offers zero protection against scam sellers.  And paypal is super convenient for the buyer, just sucks for the seller.
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July 05, 2011, 05:08:52 PM
 #35

That's a good point!
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July 05, 2011, 05:20:04 PM
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2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

Yes but it offers zero protection against scam sellers.  And paypal is super convenient for the buyer, just sucks for the seller.

That's another HUGE issue.  If I pay someone in Bitcoins, I have zero recourse once they're sent.  I can't even prove I sent the money to the seller because it's all anonymous.

Enjoying the dose of reality or getting a laugh out of my posts? Feel free to toss me a penny or two, everyone else seems to be doing it! 1Kn8NqvbCC83zpvBsKMtu4sjso5PjrQEu1
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July 05, 2011, 05:48:51 PM
 #37


 Investors like security and the bitcoin is pretty much the opposite of secure.  They also like secure exchanges and the bitcoin exchanges are pretty shady compared to mainstream exchanges.  That is kind of an understatement really. 
       

Bitcoin investing as secure as your worst security practices. Just like good ol' dollars. If you don't protect your credit and bank cards, someone will clean out your account.

You're only half right about shady exchanges. Turns out its not that difficult to avoid being a MTGOX clone. CAVirtex is a new Canadian exchange that is fully government compliant, professionally run (by actual businessmen) and not shady in the least. The trade volume pegs CAVIRTEX at #4 among all exchanges.

Sorry for being such a buzzkill.



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July 05, 2011, 05:50:02 PM
 #38

2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

Yes but it offers zero protection against scam sellers.  And paypal is super convenient for the buyer, just sucks for the seller.

That's another HUGE issue.  If I pay someone in Bitcoins cash, I have zero recourse once they're sent.  I can't even prove I sent the money to the seller because it's all anonymous.
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July 05, 2011, 05:51:47 PM
 #39

A. Don't send money to complete strangers.
B. Use services that protect your purchase.

WOW this is just like using dollars! Who knew!  Shocked
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July 05, 2011, 06:02:56 PM
 #40

2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

Yes but it offers zero protection against scam sellers.  And paypal is super convenient for the buyer, just sucks for the seller.

That's another HUGE issue.  If I pay someone in Bitcoins cash, I have zero recourse once they're sent.  I can't even prove I sent the money to the seller because it's all anonymous.


The relevant difference being that if I'm paying in cash, they're placing the actual product in my hand.

Enjoying the dose of reality or getting a laugh out of my posts? Feel free to toss me a penny or two, everyone else seems to be doing it! 1Kn8NqvbCC83zpvBsKMtu4sjso5PjrQEu1
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