Why bitcoins are dropping, and will continue to do so

[Cluster2k]

Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.

Calculate with +3% lower rate, then, right after payment, automatically try to cash in the money at mtgox. If success: all is good, ship order, if unsuccessfull: tell user you can't sell at that price any more, offer new price or to abort order or return the BTC.

How is that easier than using a credit or debit card?  The merchant would have to wait up to an hour to have the bitcoin confirmed, and then maybe another hour to transfer it to MtGox.  If the price has moved down in those two hours, email the customer to demand more bitcoins.  If the customer refuses then wait another couple of hours for the bitcoins to be returned to the customer.  It's creating new problems while solving old ones.

[V4Vendettas]

I'm just seeing green did we just have a little rally ?

[5grainsilver]

Sucker rally on its way down.  Bitcoin will be less than $1 within 6 months.  The fundamentals will win in the end.

[V4Vendettas]

Sucker rally on its way down.  Bitcoin will be less than $1 within 6 months.  The fundamentals will win in the end.

We shall see we shall see.

Would rather it got to $1 soon as possible so I can buy in.
If everyone could keep on panic selling that would be grand and thanks in advance.

My gut tells me the sky isnt falling as fast as some seem to think.
My gut also told me once that I shouldnt have eaten a semi raw egg but only afterwards 

Who knows but it sure is fun to watch.

[Dubs420]

Awww what happened to your prediction? it broken

[Tronlet]

Yeah, I was worried there for a while, but I knew it couldn't really last. Going back up now.

[Jack of Diamonds]

Sucker rally on its way down.  Bitcoin will be less than $1 within 6 months.  The fundamentals will win in the end.

When you joined 2 weeks ago, you thought bitcoin was exciting. You tried to sell silver for bitcoins at over spot price but got no takers. Then you got bitter about being too late to the party, and went on a crusade against bitcoin,

Made a few predictions how it will fall to $10 within a week and how much it just sucks in general.

What gives? Do you lose out when someone else gets something? This seems like pure jealousy IMO.
You would kill to be an early miner or buyer, but you know that's not going to happen.

[5grainsilver]

Sucker rally on its way down.  Bitcoin will be less than $1 within 6 months.  The fundamentals will win in the end.

When you joined 2 weeks ago, you thought bitcoin was exciting. You tried to sell silver for bitcoins at over spot price but got no takers. Then you got bitter about being too late to the party, and went on a crusade against bitcoin,

Made a few predictions how it will fall to $10 within a week and how much it just sucks in general.

What gives? Do you lose out when someone else gets something? This seems like pure jealousy IMO.
You would kill to be an early miner or buyer, but you know that's not going to happen.

If you read my ad you will see that I wouldn't allow returns or escrow.  Those are not my normal terms and pretty clearly imply that I don't believe bitcoin will hold its value.  My opinion hasn't changed and I will still sell silver for bitcoins.

[Jack of Diamonds]

Why sell for bitcoin in the first place if you don't believe it's worth anything

Why bother putting it down at every opportunity because you weren't an early adapter

[5grainsilver]

I like the idea of a no fee sale a lot.  And I enjoy trading stocks and commodities, so find this market pretty interesting to discuss.  Is it against the rules here to have a negative outlook?  And no I am not jealous of those that have done well.  I like what I do and am not looking to get rich quick.

[grod]

How do you even quantify risk of holding bitcoin?  I mean, it's gotta be near infinite with all the question marks.  Which means any derivative, valued by some means involving Black-Scholes or similar would require the premiums to be gigantic enough to make the derivatives worthless. 

Oh, and the spreads would probably be monstrous too.

[CurbsideProphet]

I think the first thing we need to decide here is what is the argument.  Everyone's examples are all over the map.

Is Bitcoin a store of value?  Gold and silver are commodities NOT currencies.  Last I checked, I can't take any bullion down to McDonald's and buy a happy meal.  My understanding is Bitcoins are supposed to be a P2P currency, so lets move on.

Is Bitcoin a medium of exchange (ie. currency)?  This is where the big problem lies because the Bitcoin apologists will argue that merchants and buyers are adopting BTC's in daily transactions.  While this may be true in geekville, the fact is the majority of merchants do not recognize BTC's as a medium of exchange.  And in its present state, can you blame them?  We're seeing 20%+ swings in price at the moment.  Most businesses (as someone pointed out) run on very slim margins.  Do you honestly think some merchant scraping by to make a profit will be willing to take those types of risks?  Is BTC worth a $1?  $30?  Somewhere in between?  Who the hell knows, it's been priced at all those points over the short-term and that's the problem.

The only way a big merchant would be willing to put up with that type of volatility would be if there is a way to hedge.  The same way a business would hedge foreign currency exposure, interest rates, commodity prices, etc.  As far as I know, no such hedge for Bitcoin exists.  All we have are speculators moving the price around wildly. 

Bitcoin in its current state is a giant casino of monopoly money with speculators running prices up and down until someone is eventually left holding the bag.  If you want to argue that Bitcoin is a store of value, then fine, but in that case I would suggest you go out and buy gold or silver.  At least those have a few thousands years of history that show it can be a viable store of value.  But this horseshit fantasy that BTC's is a currency needs to end.  It's not and will never be without some substantial changes.

[Jack of Diamonds]

But this horseshit fantasy that BTC's is a currency needs to end.  It's not and will never be without some substantial changes.

Tell the admins to edit the front page then.

[CurbsideProphet]

But this horseshit fantasy that BTC's is a currency needs to end.  It's not and will never be without some substantial changes.

Tell the admins to edit the front page then.

Seashells can be a currency as long as someone like you and myself are willing to use them as exchange.  I know Bitcoin is touted as a currency, and is being used by more merchants yada yada yada...

I'm talking about a viable currency.  

[CurbsideProphet]

One thing they know for certain is the fees they will have to pay to MC/Visa if they take a payment that way, and are willing to try something, anything that can get them out from under that.

Let me get this straight, a merchant would be upset to pay a few hundred basis points to MC/Visa yet would have no problem with accepting a currency that can swing 20% or more in any particular direction.  You're going to sit there and tell me that your selling point to these merchants is, "Hey we can end those 3% transaction fees hitting your bottom line.  The tradeoff is that 99% of your overhead can't be paid with these Bitcoins, and oh yeah, next week it might be worth half what it is today."

And this is going to be widely adopted?

Sure it sounds like a reasonable argument, and it is one of the favorite tropes of Bitcoin critics... But before you go spouting it about like it is a known fact try to see what actual merchants have to say about accepting Bitcoin.

Send me a list of these actual merchants and I'll ask them myself.  Curious, any of these Fortune 500 companies?  How about publicly traded?  How about revenues of $1MM+ per annum?  Please tell me you're talking about bonafide merchants that can further Bitcoins cause and not Joe Neighbor selling video cards out of his basement.

[Jack of Diamonds]

Seashells can be a currency as long as someone like you and myself are willing to use them as exchange.  I know Bitcoin is touted as a currency, and is being used by more merchants yada yada yada...

I'm talking about a viable currency.  

Bitcoins came out 2 years ago.
Paper money has been around for about 2,000 years since imperial China and gold even longer.

I think the currency is doing pretty well considering it's barely even began circulation and usage.

[CurbsideProphet]

Seashells can be a currency as long as someone like you and myself are willing to use them as exchange.  I know Bitcoin is touted as a currency, and is being used by more merchants yada yada yada...

I'm talking about a viable currency.  

Bitcoins came out 2 years ago.
Paper money has been around for about 2,000 years since imperial China and gold even longer.

I think the currency is doing pretty well considering it's barely even began circulation and usage.

For argument's sake, lets say I agree with you.  The currency has done well considering it's infancy (I actually have no issue with this).  What I'm trying to say is what propels BTC from an experiment to a viable medium of exchange.

People inherently dislike change.  It would take a rather monumental benefit for a mass of people to adopt something new.  It's not going to be merchant fees.  

Could it be a decentralized, deflationary currency that can move globally quickly and efficiently?  I can see that as the potential propellant.  If I didn't see some potential in Bitcoin, I wouldn't be here.  My point is even though BTC is in its infancy, there are some big flaws that need to be addressed.  You cannot have a medium of exchange without confidence.  You cannot have confidence without transparency and stability.  BTC may have transparency but it most certainly does not have stability.    

[CurbsideProphet]

Oh please...

Lift a finger why don't you: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

Seen the list.  A bunch of start-up nobodies.  If I showed that list to some person walking down the street they wouldn't be able to recognize 1% of those names. 

[kjj]

People inherently dislike change.  It would take a rather monumental benefit for a mass of people to adopt something new.  It's not going to be merchant fees.  

Could it be a decentralized, deflationary currency that can move globally quickly and efficiently?  I can see that as the potential propellant.  If I didn't see some potential in Bitcoin, I wouldn't be here.  My point is even though BTC is in its infancy, there are some big flaws that need to be addressed.  You cannot have a medium of exchange without confidence.  You cannot have confidence without transparency and stability.  BTC may have transparency but it most certainly does not have stability.    

Do you have a proposal?

The markets will naturally stabilize as they grow and mature.  I don't really see any way to force it.

[CurbsideProphet]

Do you have a proposal?

Working on it.  I can still put too many holes through it but I'll post for criticism once I can clean it up.

The markets will naturally stabilize as they grow and mature.  I don't really see any way to force it.

You might be right.  Although natural stabilization may mean a dramatic drop in price.  I wonder what % of the community would bail at that point.