Ding Dong! The Bubble-burst is done! $90-95 is the new normal

[molecular]

How many of the long term Bitcoin holders/miners ever thought $90 would be the norm?  I am relatively new so I would assume that people would have laughed at the thought a year ago.

Many were talking about thousands and even millions of dollars per BTC last year and the year before that (2011). 2010 and earlier I don't know because I wasn't invovled.

And yes: many laughed at the thought of even "bitcoin parity" "dollar parity" (EDIT) when I joined in early 2011, let alone $100 dollar bitcoins.

Nowadays people laugh at rpietila (who will be correct with his 300$/mBTC prediction, just not with the timing).

[Tzupy]

Nope, it looks like a bull trap to me. Small spike to (maybe) 95, then a massive drop to 70 or lower.

Bulltrap keeps occurring... until it doesn't

Yes indeed, 2 whale buys proved me wrong. If it weren't for those 2, price would be around 91-92 right now, heading towards a panic sell. I can't predict whale buys.

[BitChick]

How many of the long term Bitcoin holders/miners ever thought $90 would be the norm?  I am relatively new so I would assume that people would have laughed at the thought a year ago.

Many were talking about thousands and even millions of dollars per BTC last year and the year before that (2011). 2010 and earlier I don't know because I wasn't invovled.

And yes: many laughed at the thought of even "bitcoin parity" when I joined in early 2011, let alone $100 dollar bitcoins.

Nowadays people laugh at rpietila (who will be correct with his 300$/mBTC prediction, just not with the timing).

I like talking about thousands and millions of dollars per BTC.  We need more of those posts again!    Maybe I am a dreamer? 

But if it was beyond people's expectations for 1 BTC to be worth $100, what is stopping it from going to $1000?  I honestly feel it is just a matter of time.

[notme]

Nope, it looks like a bull trap to me. Small spike to (maybe) 95, then a massive drop to 70 or lower.

Bulltrap keeps occurring... until it doesn't

Yes indeed, 2 whale buys proved me wrong. If it weren't for those 2, price would be around 91-92 right now, heading towards a panic sell. I can't predict whale buys.

That's funny, because strong buying was exactly what my analysis predicted.

[Tzupy]

What can I say? Congratulations!
Would you mind predicting another whale buy?

Currently we have a standoff: nobody wants to breach the invisible sell wall at 97.xx, and at the same time
the buy wall at 96 seems solid (this may change in seconds though). I won't get much sleep tonight...

Edit: corrected stupid 72.xx to 97.xx

[solex]

How useful is predicting whale buys anyway?
Strange how the colossal 40,000+ coin "blue" whale buy on June 25th barely dented the downtrend, but two much smaller "fin" whale buys this week somehow manage to reverse the market.

[notme]

What can I say? Congratulations!
Would you mind predicting another whale buy?

Currently we have a standoff: nobody wants to breach the invisible sell wall at 72.xx, and at the same time
the buy wall at 96 seems solid (this may change in seconds though). I won't get much sleep tonight...

No, I don't mind.  In fact, I see it as 70% likely we will breach the recent $97.48 high within 12 hours.  I don't know that we will go very much higher than that though.

[Tzupy]

I agree with your prediction, but the 1.2k required is not a whale buy, by my standards. Make it 6,000 - 7,000 BTC or more, that's a whale buy.

[notme]

I agree with your prediction, but the 1.2k required is not a whale buy, by my standards. Make it 6,000 - 7,000 BTC or more, that's a whale buy.

Ignore the order book.  It is not representative of the actual volume required for a move.  Orders disappear and some pop up as soon as there is movement.

[Tzupy]

I agree with your prediction, but the 1.2k required is not a whale buy, by my standards. Make it 6,000 - 7,000 BTC or more, that's a whale buy.

Ignore the order book.  It is not representative of the actual volume required for a move.  Orders disappear and some pop up as soon as there is movement.

I get your point and agree, there is an invisible wall at 97.xx, and sell orders may pop out of nowhere once that is reached.
So yes, probably another whale buy would be needed to breach that invisible wall, if the wall doesn't move.
I mean, it's kind of stupid not to let the market move higher so they can sell at a higher price, doesn't make sense to me.
Unless they know there are many who would sell at 97.xx and just want to sell first.

[notme]

I agree with your prediction, but the 1.2k required is not a whale buy, by my standards. Make it 6,000 - 7,000 BTC or more, that's a whale buy.

Ignore the order book.  It is not representative of the actual volume required for a move.  Orders disappear and some pop up as soon as there is movement.

I get your point and agree, there is an invisible wall at 97.xx, and sell orders may pop out of nowhere once that is reached.
So yes, probably another whale buy would be needed to breach that invisible wall, if the wall doesn't move.
I mean, it's kind of stupid not to let the market move higher so they can sell at a higher price, doesn't make sense to me.
Unless they know there are many who would sell at 97.xx and just want to sell first.

Bears who aren't prepared to give up their thesis will attempt to defend their position.

[Chalkbot]

Get ready for the next bubble, it's slowly rising beneath the surface. People are starting to realize that we are nearing the end of the era where you can plug in a device and get bitcoins from it. Well, more bitcoins than it cost, anyways.

It's now difficult to keep track of all of the companies manufacturing ASIC hardware, or currently in the design process ahead of mass production. The existing players have already said that they have next gen products in the pipeline as well. Preorders are rolling out at a pace that suggests that people are already getting left behind, but we can't know for sure. All you can do is speculate to when that will happen (or happened).

As more and more people come to that realization, The percieved risk of loss in hardware investment will greatly outweigh that associated with simply buying up bitcoins right now, and seeing the price take a dramatic and long term fall.

I know that I'm a hyperbull, and everything I say should be tempered with some rational thought on your part, but this is the first time I'm calling for an uptrend based on fear instead of exhuberence and excitement. Fear is far more powerful, and doesn't go away quite as easily. Ask your grandma why she has so much canned food.

[BitChick]

Get ready for the next bubble, it's slowly rising beneath the surface. People are starting to realize that we are nearing the end of the era where you can plug in a device and get bitcoins from it. Well, more bitcoins than it cost, anyways.

It's now difficult to keep track of all of the companies manufacturing ASIC hardware, or currently in the design process ahead of mass production. The existing players have already said that they have next gen products in the pipeline as well. Preorders are rolling out at a pace that suggests that people are already getting left behind, but we can't know for sure. All you can do is speculate to when that will happen (or happened).

As more and more people come to that realization, The percieved risk of loss in hardware investment will greatly outweigh that associated with simply buying up bitcoins right now, and seeing the price take a dramatic and long term fall.

I know that I'm a hyperbull, and everything I say should be tempered with some rational thought on your part, but this is the first time I'm calling for an uptrend based on fear instead of exhuberence and excitement. Fear is far more powerful, and doesn't go away quite as easily. Ask your grandma why she has so much canned food.

Sounds likely.  I am all for another bubble.    The question will be, how high with this one go before it pops?  Hopefully we get up to $500 this time.  We will see though.

[semaforo]

Get ready for the next bubble, it's slowly rising beneath the surface. People are starting to realize that we are nearing the end of the era where you can plug in a device and get bitcoins from it. Well, more bitcoins than it cost, anyways.

It's now difficult to keep track of all of the companies manufacturing ASIC hardware, or currently in the design process ahead of mass production. The existing players have already said that they have next gen products in the pipeline as well. Preorders are rolling out at a pace that suggests that people are already getting left behind, but we can't know for sure. All you can do is speculate to when that will happen (or happened).

As more and more people come to that realization, The percieved risk of loss in hardware investment will greatly outweigh that associated with simply buying up bitcoins right now, and seeing the price take a dramatic and long term fall.

I know that I'm a hyperbull, and everything I say should be tempered with some rational thought on your part, but this is the first time I'm calling for an uptrend based on fear instead of exhuberence and excitement. Fear is far more powerful, and doesn't go away quite as easily. Ask your grandma why she has so much canned food.

  I don't understand your point. Are you saying that when people realize increases in difficulty are going to ultimately make ASIC purchases unprofitable that they are going to start buying bitcoin? Do you mean the price of ASIC hardware is going to take a dramatic long term fall, or the price of bitcoin?

   My feeling says that the current upturn is shallow. I think it's going to peter out pretty soon and that the overall downward trend is going to continue. I think better buy opportunities are on the horizon. Of course, I know trusting your gut works in business, but I don't know about with trading.

[ElectricMucus]

The hard truth is mining Bitcoins is pretty much guaranteed to be somewhat profitable over the vast majority of the time, while investing in Bitcoins isn't.
The former constitutes a service of some sort, which by it's nature is profitable to do, the latter can only be profitable about 50% of the time because it's a zero sum game.

[hgmichna]

   My feeling says that the current upturn is shallow. I think it's going to peter out pretty soon and that the overall downward trend is going to continue. I think better buy opportunities are on the horizon. …

What "upturn"?

If you see an "upturn", you must be looking at a very small time slice.

[semaforo]

What "upturn"?

If you see an "upturn", you must be looking at a very small time slice.

I mean the recent climb from the high 80's.

[monkeybars]

IMO, OP is right. The bubble is over and we're seeing a stable BTC rise again. Bitcoin will climb well above $200 by year's end. Stay aware of economic collapse signals; when they hit (even if they have nothing to do with Bitcoin) they will cause spikes and troughs; if not we're in the middle of one on New Year's, I predict somewhere around $275.

I agree we ought to be talking about Bitcoin in 4, 5, 6 digits. With enough fiat printing, possibly 7 digits. With proper hyperinflation -- which the Fed might be able to avoid but might well not -- more digits. Cryptocurrency will be the primary form of money everywhere with mobile internet in the 2020s. Fiat will be the government-issued trash that gov't employees and companies contracted by them immediately convert to crypto. If you think this will eventually make it infeasible for the gov't to hire anyone, you're right. Eventually, central bank fiat currencies will be taken out of the money supply (due to unspendability) and replaced by small-circulation, specialized backed currencies. Which also won't be easily spendable.

[molecular]

IMO, OP is right. The bubble is over and we're seeing a stable BTC rise again. Bitcoin will climb well above $200 by year's end. Stay aware of economic collapse signals; when they hit (even if they have nothing to do with Bitcoin) they will cause spikes and troughs; if not we're in the middle of one on New Year's, I predict somewhere around $275.

I agree we ought to be talking about Bitcoin in 4, 5, 6 digits. With enough fiat printing, possibly 7 digits. With proper hyperinflation -- which the Fed might be able to avoid but might well not -- more digits. Cryptocurrency will be the primary form of money everywhere with mobile internet in the 2020s. Fiat will be the government-issued trash that gov't employees and companies contracted by them immediately convert to crypto. If you think this will eventually make it infeasible for the gov't to hire anyone, you're right. Eventually, central bank fiat currencies will be taken out of the money supply (due to unspendability) and replaced by small-circulation, specialized backed currencies. Which also won't be easily spendable.

This is one of the mechanisms by which bitcoin empowers the people. It drains blood (power) from the centralized government(s) (who have ceased to act in the interest of their people).

[jamesc760]

Fantasy. Pure fantasy. Fiat will be fiat. Cryptocurrencies will still be stuck in minor supporting role.