Bitcoin price after CBOE and CME

[hugeblack]

Now, with Bitcoin futures trading on both the CBOE and the CME, Bitcoin has become available to the larger players with big pockets, which includes short sellers. It will be interesting to see what will happen with the cryptocurrency when the first bear attack.

The uptrend and the momentum remain intact as long as the virtual currency trades above the trendline. Our upside target for the cryptocurrency stands at $24,291.58.  

However, if the trendline support breaks, Bitcoin will become weak. It will become bearish and indicate a larger fall once it falls below $15,200 levels. What is the downside target?

Once the 20-day EMA breaks, the digital currency can fall to the 50-day SMA, which is currently at about $10,333 levels. Therefore, traders should trade with a stop-loss.

what do you think about this analysis ?

[HabBear]

These futures exchanges adding Bitcoin as a new commodity is great news, it legitimizes Bitcoin to the world. And what starts an experimental investment often becomes a mainstream investment.

Since the futures transactions occur on their own exchange the volatility of this speculation is buffered from the actual price of Bitcoin. These trades never hit the blockchain, they're just side bets about the separate activity happening on the blockchain. This is GREAT for Bitcoin.

Also, these investment firms that want to get in on the futures activity need to hold Bitcoin to meet reserve requirements the exchanges require. This means the firms need to buy and hold Bitcoin.

Finally, other commodities that trade on the CME and CBOE are precious metals, coffee, soy beans, pork, oranges, etc. The price of these commodities don't fluctuate wildly as their future contracts do.

[sobriket]

So this is just another analysis? There has not even been one analysis that was right, they all are bullish, i can not understand why you all are expecting to see bitcoin always on a bullish trend.
What if it drops? are you all going to sell because of a little dip?

[iamTom123]

These futures exchanges adding Bitcoin as a new commodity is great news, it legitimizes Bitcoin to the world. And what starts an experimental investment often becomes a mainstream investment. Since the futures transactions occur on their own exchange the volatility of this speculation is buffered from the actual price of Bitcoin. These trades never hit the blockchain, they're just side bets about the separate activity happening on the blockchain. This is GREAT for Bitcoin. Also, these investment firms that want to get in on the futures activity need to hold Bitcoin to meet reserve requirements the exchanges require. This means the firms need to buy and hold Bitcoin. Finally, other commodities that trade on the CME and CBOE are precious metals, coffee, soy beans, pork, oranges, etc. The price of these commodities don't fluctuate wildly as their future contracts do.

While there are those who are painting a bleak future for Bitcoin because of the coming of Bitcoin Futures, I am one of the many who believe that this whole thing can be helping Bitcoin in the long term as this marked the legitimization of the King of Cryptos. Now, with the futures already established, we should be looking forward for the approval of the many ETF applications in SEC. ETFs and the Futures can be working hand in hand in bringing the Bitcoin to the mainstream investment sphere. Will these two control the high volatility movement of Bitcoin? We are hoping so though many traders may not like it in the short-term as many are feeding on its high volatility to make good trades.

[BitHodler]

I am quite surprised that CME is heavily lagging behind with its volume, and that while CBOE is far ahead even though it's a smaller platform. We need to give the market a few more days to figure out a direction.

If the market turns out to be tired/exhausted, we'll be up for a mild correction, which I believe to be somewhere till $15,000. Honestly, I think it would be healthy to see the market take a step back.

It will give altcoins a boost due to people looking to hedge Bitcoin temporarily. I am looking forward to grab myself a few more coins as soon as the market drops, which for me will be a great opportunity rather than something bad.

[Juggy777]

Now, with Bitcoin futures trading on both the CBOE and the CME, Bitcoin has become available to the larger players with big pockets, which includes short sellers. It will be interesting to see what will happen with the cryptocurrency when the first bear attack.

The uptrend and the momentum remain intact as long as the virtual currency trades above the trendline. Our upside target for the cryptocurrency stands at $24,291.58.  

However, if the trendline support breaks, Bitcoin will become weak. It will become bearish and indicate a larger fall once it falls below $15,200 levels. What is the downside target?

Once the 20-day EMA breaks, the digital currency can fall to the 50-day SMA, which is currently at about $10,333 levels. Therefore, traders should trade with a stop-loss.

what do you think about this analysis ?

I am bit skeptical as to how really will the price of Bitcoins benefit from these future's. One aspect appeals to me is that now it's a commodity, and more people will be drawn to it, but then it's a concern that these people will short sell it and that's a risk, however if they hold we will see it 25k by Jan and 40k by June. However if it falls, 15k and max 25k by year end.

[leea-1334]

I am quite surprised that CME is heavily lagging behind with its volume, and that while CBOE is far ahead even though it's a smaller platform. We need to give the market a few more days to figure out a direction.

If the market turns out to be tired/exhausted, we'll be up for a mild correction, which I believe to be somewhere till $15,000. Honestly, I think it would be healthy to see the market take a step back.

It will give altcoins a boost due to people looking to hedge Bitcoin temporarily. I am looking forward to grab myself a few more coins as soon as the market drops, which for me will be a great opportunity rather than something bad.

I think because of one simple reason. Minimum order on CME is 5 BTC or about $100,000 while minimym on CBOE is 1 BTC or $20k. So volume of course will not be as high, if we assume there are less big whales than they are small ones.

I still do not really see the effect in either case. Yes, BTC seems to be slipping now, as it is below $18k at the moment, but we always see this slippage every time a new ATH is reached. I felt that futures were not going to have much impact, or if they would, it would not be big or long.

I also think it is healthy for a step back. But cannot say now if that will happen.

[nizamcc]

The values have already started tickling down slightly and as of now, the price went to $18000 (according to preev) and is now recovering back. Stability of Bitcoin during these days has given alts a chance to rise with a bigger volume than what we saw in past that Bitcoin alone was rising while others were being thrown down hard. I guess Bitcoin will probably enter the correction mode once those large players start playing their mischievous games.

[gentlemand]

The values have already started tickling down slightly and as of now, the price went to $18000 (according to preev) and is now recovering back. Stability of Bitcoin during these days has given alts a chance to rise with a bigger volume than what we saw in past that Bitcoin alone was rising while others were being thrown down hard. I guess Bitcoin will probably enter the correction mode once those large players start playing their mischievous games.

This is an intriguing thing to me. If Bitcoin does officially become boring because traders decide to do what futures will tell them to do, does this mean the non sheep will migrate to alts and stay there?

And if futures descend on the largest alts and have the same effect will traders continue moving to non futures coins?

Crypto traders do not like boring. They do not like ceding control of their markets either.

[1Referee]

Crypto traders do not like boring. They do not like ceding control of their markets either.

As long as the future markets are tied to crypto, and not vice versa, it's not much of a problem. I think those who invest through futures are more afraid of the other side than we are for them. Bitcoin's market is the leading factor here, and that will remain so basically for ever. The only thing the futures might do, is theoretically decrease the volatility due to the two sided market aspect. Currently, the volumes these futures push through are an absolute joke, so there is no way that any trader will take them seriously, so Bitcoin's market will keep trolling the future markets, and that is quite a funny thing. Each time Bitcoin experiences a decent load of volatility, the future markets are being put on hold for a few minutes.

[exstasie]

I am quite surprised that CME is heavily lagging behind with its volume, and that while CBOE is far ahead even though it's a smaller platform. We need to give the market a few more days to figure out a direction.

I suppose the CBOE had the "first mover" advantage. Firms that were eager to enter the market likely started building positions on the CBOE rather than waiting for the CME to launch their market. Lot sizes are also significantly smaller on the CBOE, which means that mainstream investors are more likely to trade it. The CME contract size prices out lots of smaller investors.

I still do not really see the effect in either case. Yes, BTC seems to be slipping now, as it is below $18k at the moment, but we always see this slippage every time a new ATH is reached. I felt that futures were not going to have much impact, or if they would, it would not be big or long.

There was a lot more fomo on the spike from $12,000-17,000 than there was from $17,000-20,000. Momentum dying down?

Isn't it interesting that the market pumped on CBOE launch and dumped on CME launch? They took it down 10% in 2 hours right after the launch, and the spot market followed. Haven't seen volume like that since, either.

[godzillarekt007]

I don't think the futures prices and the price of actual BTC are directly linked therefore the conversation is more or less irrelevant. Sure one can see how much interest big sharks are giving the bitcoin market but that doesn't mean they would put millions into the market themselves because then they only win by going up. This way they can win either way and seeing how traditional markets function this way it is right up their alleys.

[exstasie]

I don't think the futures prices and the price of actual BTC are directly linked therefore the conversation is more or less irrelevant.

They are closely linked. In fact, the markets move in lockstep. How else could they be used to hedge?

You can't directly arbitrage with inter-exchange transfers, but traders can still arbitrage the difference between futures vs. spot, which can significantly affect the market. This is possible because the delta of a futures contract is not equal to 1. When fomo is strong in the futures market, traders pay thousands above the spot price, betting that when delta=1 that the price will be that much higher.

Bitmex and Okcoin have long had an effect on the spot market. Often times, it's useful to watch for massive liquidations on the futures markets to determine when the market has hit extremes and will likely correct.