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Author Topic: Mtgox exchange in free fall $$$$  (Read 2973 times)
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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July 05, 2011, 05:05:19 PM
 #21

@ Slipperyslope or anyone that knows...

 Dumb question here, but what's to prevent the botnet operator from creating his own mining pool that is exclusivly used by the bots?  
Botnet wranglers I think are lazy people who would rather focus their talents on no-competition illegal activities, than on something economically profitable and legal.

However, there is no technical reason that I know of to prevent the formation of a pool with unlawful miners.
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zerokwel
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July 05, 2011, 05:37:19 PM
 #22

Well I bought in at 16.10 and just sold at 13.00 after mtgox kept going down, now the price is very unstable got to 12.50 now it's at 13.00

You only lose money trading if you sell lower than you buy.  The only exception to this is if a company goes bankrupt or the price never recovers.  This goes for any market.

If the price drops below what you bought it for, just WAIT.

yea if the price drops I normally buy some more depending on how much of a risk. that way it it has to go up less to make yourself come out even.

anyway 12.40 is around my magic number.

That is what I was always taught by people who actually end up making money...panic sellers are the same ones who tell you not to invest ever.

Agree. Don't invest what you cannot afford to loose. And be ready to take risks and hopefully mine has just paid off. Sold at 17odd bought at 12.40 was hoping it would go lower but its at 12.70 now.

I know what my next sell point is at lets see if it goes that high... Hmm wonder if any miners are panic selling hardware.
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July 05, 2011, 05:43:21 PM
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Well I bought in at 16.10 and just sold at 13.00 after mtgox kept going down, now the price is very unstable got to 12.50 now it's at 13.00

You only lose money trading if you sell lower than you buy.  The only exception to this is if a company goes bankrupt or the price never recovers.  This goes for any market.

If the price drops below what you bought it for, just WAIT.

yea if the price drops I normally buy some more depending on how much of a risk. that way it it has to go up less to make yourself come out even.

anyway 12.40 is around my magic number.

That is what I was always taught by people who actually end up making money...panic sellers are the same ones who tell you not to invest ever.

Agree. Don't invest what you cannot afford to loose. And be ready to take risks and hopefully mine has just paid off. Sold at 17odd bought at 12.40 was hoping it would go lower but its at 12.70 now.

I know what my next sell point is at lets see if it goes that high... Hmm wonder if any miners are panic selling hardware.

There are always (supposed) miners panic selling equipment...I never see any reasonable prices.  It's always "...I want out now (but I want ebay new prices for my used cards) bitcoin is failing, I am getting out while I can (but pay me top dollar)..."

It's pretty clear by viewing the market depth what the real market value is ($14+)...but there are a few hundred btc keeping the "last sold" price down.  If I had the money that is how I would control the market also...make people panic and buy more.
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July 05, 2011, 05:54:50 PM
 #24

aye noticed that about hardware.... and people are holding out on there prices. when you can get better cheaper else ware.

aye I just w8 for a shift and ride the waves. sometimes I am right sometimes I am wrong... Hopefully this time I am right.

for me its how little of my own cash I have to risk. All my profit is from the markets or mining so if the market crashed tomorrow I would of lost nothing.

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July 05, 2011, 06:28:02 PM
 #25

I think the price will stabilize at the cost of electricity for mining at the current difficulty level, multiplied by some markup to pay for hardware and time, say 20%-50%.  Miners located in areas with cheap electricity will have an advantage.

Bitcoins are like any other commodity, with both supply and demand. Few miners will sell at a loss, and those that do will quickly leave the market, leaving miners that price their bitcoins at an acceptable profit range, where it's still worth participating in the market.

I've seen various calculations that cost of electricity is around $1.50/bitcoin at a recent difficulty level, so I think with a few more increases in difficulty, bitcoin will be somewhere in the $5 range.  The 1000% markup that was happening at the $17 level just can't last.
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July 05, 2011, 06:50:00 PM
 #26

Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:



Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".

Fraggon
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July 05, 2011, 07:06:34 PM
 #27

This is ridiculous... it's rising again. Perhaps a good time to buy some BTC Wink
Newton
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July 05, 2011, 07:25:00 PM
 #28

I think the price will stabilize at the cost of electricity for mining at the current difficulty level, multiplied by some markup to pay for hardware and time, say 20%-50%.  Miners located in areas with cheap electricity will have an advantage.

Bitcoins are like any other commodity, with both supply and demand. Few miners will sell at a loss, and those that do will quickly leave the market, leaving miners that price their bitcoins at an acceptable profit range, where it's still worth participating in the market.

I've seen various calculations that cost of electricity is around $1.50/bitcoin at a recent difficulty level, so I think with a few more increases in difficulty, bitcoin will be somewhere in the $5 range.  The 1000% markup that was happening at the $17 level just can't last.


This idea has been brought up and rejected many times.  The cost of electricity is a moving target.  If miners leave, difficulty drops.  If miners come, difficulty increases.  This is not a fundamental.

There is some weak influence, as current miners might not be inclined to sell for less than their costs, but there is more influence the other way- miners look at the profitability and decide whether to mine or not, which tends to drive total btc costs up or down toward a suitable value.

There are a ton of market factors, but ultimately if, say, $1B of goods are being traded with btc, then a minimum of $1B worth of btc must be purchased to support the market.  Nobody buying btc to use as currency cares what the value is, as the bitcoin is divisible.  e.g., if Bob wants to send $100USD to Amsterdam, Bob will buy $100USD worth of bitcoin, regardless of how many bitcoins he receives.

The total market required for day to day exchanges is an absolute minimum value of the bitcoin.  This is obviously only one factor in the bitcoin value, but it is a clear counter example to your claim.
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July 05, 2011, 07:27:51 PM
 #29

Down to $11 but have good support at $10 I'm interested can it go lower that $10?Smiley

Bitrated user: DR2073.
SlipperySlope
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July 05, 2011, 07:35:49 PM
 #30

Down to $11 but have good support at $10 I'm interested can it go lower that $10?Smiley
Back in April, one could buy a bitcoin for $1. As the bitcoin bubble deflates, prices should return to pre-bubble levels.  It has been argued in a bubble thread that this one should be completed by the end of August.

From the price chart, below $10 I see support at $8.  But the current downdraft - July 5 - has such momentum that it may simply blow past these supposed supports.
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July 05, 2011, 07:36:06 PM
 #31

Bought in at 14.350 here and sold at 13.7 in a panic.
karoshi
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July 05, 2011, 07:36:39 PM
 #32

it's rising again, buy now.

BIM - Bitcoin Income Monitor (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26323.0)
JeffK
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I never hashed for this...


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July 05, 2011, 07:55:03 PM
 #33

it's rising again, buy now.


Probably not great advice right now. I bought in at a little over $14 and panic sold around 13.5 like lunar, I'm either going to hold out until they are around $4-5 or just keep my involvement with the community as strictly a developer working for USD.
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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July 05, 2011, 08:29:42 PM
 #34

it's rising again, buy now.
Looks like the channel I've been following all day finally has a sideways breakout following the spike down to $11.  It will be interesting to look again in a couple of hours to see where the current activity around $12.5 goes.

[update] July 5 - the channel pattern is ended with a brief breakout to the upside.  Resistance was reached at $14 and presently prices are settling in around $13.  If the bitcoin bubble deflates further, one could expect support at $11 which was the recent low.
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July 05, 2011, 08:37:16 PM
 #35

well, i hope nobody expect stable exchange prices to bitcoins when is all so new and prices is not so much coupled with real goods markets

right now we sell $ or € for bitcoins or buy bitcoins in exchange of $ or € ... until will begin to sell and buy bitcoins to real goods, real meals, real popcorns, real houses and so on, will be a wild market

mtgox 12.75 $

lol'd at the transition from real popcorn to real houses Grin
boaz2020
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July 05, 2011, 11:13:59 PM
 #36

well, i hope nobody expect stable exchange prices to bitcoins when is all so new and prices is not so much coupled with real goods markets

right now we sell $ or € for bitcoins or buy bitcoins in exchange of $ or € ... until will begin to sell and buy bitcoins to real goods, real meals, real popcorns, real houses and so on, will be a wild market

mtgox 12.75 $

lol'd at the transition from real popcorn to real houses Grin
Well because popcorns < houses obviously.
Bitcoincrazy
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July 05, 2011, 11:41:08 PM
 #37

Totally unstable, woke up to find it back at 13 then went to 13.50 now at 12.95 and dipping, the market is pure speculation with people profiting buying at short lows and selling at short highs.
jprockbelly
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July 05, 2011, 11:59:40 PM
 #38

loving this thread, I hope others are seeing the lesson that is being handed out here.

So glad I never speculated on the market.  Smiley


1UJhcKJ3NAhLKJMwowPh6kPWV5gVu3wZe
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
HonestAbe
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July 06, 2011, 12:15:56 AM
 #39

I grew up in rural America.  Every so often I would hear a story about a farmer crossing the line and speculating on the cattle futures.....  Same type of guys as the Mt Gox speculators!
Bitcoincrazy
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July 06, 2011, 01:32:49 AM
 #40

I grew up in rural America.  Every so often I would hear a story about a farmer crossing the line and speculating on the cattle futures.....  Same type of guys as the Mt Gox speculators!


There is a difference, at least the farmer thinks he has some subjective knowledge about what he is speculating about. We are more gamblers than anything else, The price components of BTC have been commented about I.e difficulty rating, miners and hackers off loading the booty etc but what I see is that most of the trade is spectulating on speculating, in an essence gambling.
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