Sell MtGox

[SGExodus]

SGExodus,

Tell us how you know for CERTAIN that the time-frame for someone to successfully withdraw their USD from MTGOX is "Let's say 3 months", as you espoused in your post?

Of course, I can't be certain.    Any investment is about calculated risk and your own risk appetite.   

For illustration, let us start with a modest $10k capital.  This nett you 6% return from the simple arbitrage action, or $600.

Worst case scenario -- MTGOX shutdown and run.  -- Lost all your $10K capital.

Scenario 1 - MTGOX took 1 year to process the withdrawal, but you eventually get the money back -- 6% per annual return, not great, but still beats putting the money in the bank for saving interest.  You may also lost some opportunity cost along the way.

Scenario 2 - MTGOX took 3 months to process the withdrawal.    Assuming the arbitrage opportunity still exists, and you repeat the process 4 times.    24% per annual return -- this beats most other investment instrument out there.

Scenario 3 - MTGOX took 1 months or less to process the withdrawal.  Assuming the arbitrage opportunity still exists, and you repeat the process 12 times.    72% per annual return -- this is close to ponzi scheme type of return..

But it's your own money.   You should do your own risk assessment.

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[Odalv]

SGExodus,

Tell us how you know for CERTAIN that the time-frame for someone to successfully withdraw their USD from MTGOX is "Let's say 3 months", as you espoused in your post?

Of course, I can't be certain.    Any investment is about calculated risk and your own risk appetite.   

For illustration, let us start with a modest $10k capital.  This nett you 6% return from the simple arbitrage action, or $600.

Worst case scenario -- MTGOX shutdown and run.  -- Lost all your $10K capital.

Scenario 1 - MTGOX took 1 year to process the withdrawal, but you eventually get the money back -- 6% per annual return, not great, but still beats putting the money in the bank for saving interest.  You may also lost some opportunity cost along the way.

Scenario 2 - MTGOX took 3 months to process the withdrawal.    Assuming the arbitrage opportunity still exists, and you repeat the process 4 times.    24% per annual return -- this beats most other investment instrument out there.

Scenario 3 - MTGOX took 1 months or less to process the withdrawal.  Assuming the arbitrage opportunity still exists, and you repeat the process 12 times.    72% per annual return -- this is close to ponzi scheme type of return..

But it's your own money.   You should do your own risk assessment.

But exchange fees are 2 x 0.5% and wire transfer fee 2 x 2-3% => no reward

[johnblaze]

The reason that arbitrage like this 6% spread still exists without fluctuating much is because no one is capitalizing on it so as to close the gap, which then further maintains this arbitrage since MtGox's inability to payout prevents capitalists to risk the uncertainty of withdrawing GXD (Gox USD as a fellow member labeled it) into realized USD.

exactly.

SGExodus is clueless. if this were profitable, then people would already be doing it. and then if people were doing it, the markets would correct, and there would no longer be these arb opportunities.

[SGExodus]

But exchange fees are 2 x 0.5% and wire transfer fee 2 x 2-3% => no reward

You need to change bank if they charge you 2-3% for wire transfer..

[Kazu]

But exchange fees are 2 x 0.5% and wire transfer fee 2 x 2-3% => no reward

You need to change bank if they charge you 2-3% for wire transfer..

It depends on how much you are wiring. My bank charges $30 for receiving an international bank wire transfer. Gox, by my estimate, is charging about $15-ish. Thats like $45 in fees. If you are 'only' wiring 2250, then this would be a 2% fee.

[mjosephs]

What's the big deal?

apparently you never played "musical chairs" as a kid

here ill give u a hint

counterparty risk, bitchez

[bitcoin carpenter]

Well if any of you are considerring the mt gox switcheroo
May I suggest cavirtex and mt gox cad
89 vs 105

[Kazu]

Well if any of you are considerring the mt gox switcheroo
May I suggest cavirtex and mt gox cad
89 vs 105

Goddamn canadians.

[bitcoin carpenter]

guess someone read my post ..... cavirtex now 102 and mt gox cad 105

[Kazu]

Completed the liquidation of my MtGox USD

Now I have safely moved any USD into BitFinex where it can earn interest, and moved all BTC into good 'ol paper wallets.

[Kaiji]

Using Cavirtex seems like a good idea for Americans living near the border. Just open up an account at a Canadian bank and you can withdraw from cavirtex pretty easily using email money transfers last time I checked. They probably a lot easier to deal with when withdrawing fiat by other means though you might have to check their site since I'm not pretty sure.


Edit: It seems that they only accept accounts from Canadian citizens. They should expand to the US market if they are able to do so.

[Kaiji]

With all the money mtgox has made recently I'm surprised they haven't solved their issues yet. They might be having some other problems behind the scenes.

[weaknesswaran]

How much daily arbitrage volume would be needed to level bitstamp <-> mtgox?