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Author Topic: Insane Bitcoin Futures volume at 796.com  (Read 3958 times)
LeChatNoir
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July 25, 2013, 07:07:34 AM
 #1

Looking at the bitcoin futures chart at 796.com i can see volume for yesterday was more then 140.000 BTC while only 16.500 BTC have been traded on MtGox.
I don't know how is that possible, here you can see bitcoin futures chart with volumes https://796.com/futures/chart

Bitcoin Futures volume at 796.com is clearly fake volume, my conclusion is they are pumping up those volume just to give away a very high dividend to shareholders on August 1.

High dividend is what is driving high the price of fee shares that they are actually trying to sell to the public (they already sold 260K of those, 740K shares are still in their hands) so be aware of their scheme and stay away, those shares are worth no more then 1/10 of their current price.





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DrGregMulhauser
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July 25, 2013, 08:53:01 AM
 #2

Looking at the bitcoin futures chart at 796.com i can see volume for yesterday was more then 140.000 BTC while only 16.500 BTC have been traded on MtGox.
I don't know how is that possible, here you can see bitcoin futures chart with volumes https://796.com/futures/chart

Without any personal experience with 796 or even any knowledge of the exact terms of the futures contract you've mentioned, I can't offer any insights specific to this example.

A more general point might be useful, though: there is no necessary connection of any kind between futures volumes on any given exchange and volumes in the underlying commodity -- or, in this case, currency pair -- on any other exchange. Speaking very generally, especially significant changes in open interest would probably suggest some kind of activity in the underlying currency pair as well, but even there, there's no "how is that possible" conceptual problem.

In principal, derivatives traders could swap contracts back and forth all day long in a speculative frenzy, without any direct exposure to the underlying at all. And, in principal, that sort of speculative frenzy could go on as long as you like, without necessarily moving the needle on open interest.

Having said all that, futures liquidity on BTC/USD on other exchanges such as ICBIT has historically been pretty weak, making it challenging to use them at all. So, on the face of it, I'd personally find it quite surprising if a new entrant like 796 were suddenly generating large volumes of trade in the kinds of contracts which have been available for a relatively long time elsewhere but which haven't generated much in the way of volume.

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EscrowBTC
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July 25, 2013, 10:25:30 AM
 #3

Thanks for sharing with us!


Escrow services, PM me!
Loozik
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July 25, 2013, 12:39:11 PM
 #4

Looking at the bitcoin futures chart at 796.com i can see volume for yesterday was more then 140.000 BTC while only 16.500 BTC have been traded on MtGox.

It must have been futures contracts (BTC derivatives) that were traded, not the underlying instrument (BTC).
LeChatNoir
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July 25, 2013, 02:32:00 PM
 #5

Looking at the bitcoin futures chart at 796.com i can see volume for yesterday was more then 140.000 BTC while only 16.500 BTC have been traded on MtGox.

It must have been futures contracts (BTC derivatives) that were traded, not the underlying instrument (BTC).

1 future contract = 1 BTC
They are trying to sell their fee shares at a very high price, 90% of their volume is fake i'm sure about that.

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Loozik
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July 25, 2013, 03:37:23 PM
 #6

1 future contract = 1 BTC

Either you do not understand how derivative markets work or you got this misleading info from the exchange. What the exchange may have informed you about is that the minimum contract size (lot) is 1 BTC.

For every BTC mined / issued there can be hundreds BTC futures contracts concluded / traded on derivative markets. In this sense 1 futures contract =/= 1 BTC.
LeChatNoir
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July 25, 2013, 03:44:03 PM
 #7

1 future contract = 1 BTC

Either you do not understand how derivative markets work or you got this misleading info from the exchange. What the exchange may have informed you about is that the minimum contract size (lot) is 1 BTC.

For every BTC mined / issued there can be hundreds BTC futures contracts concluded / traded on derivative markets. In this sense 1 futures contract =/= 1 BTC.

I know how a futures market works. Have you checked the volumes on the chart i linked? Do you really think that's normal trading activity for a 2 months old exchange?
140.000 BTC equivalent of futures contract exchanged in 4 hours with absolutely no price movement and then 1.000 BTC traded in the following 12 hours?

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DrGregMulhauser
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July 25, 2013, 04:16:55 PM
 #8

I know how a futures market works. Have you checked the volumes on the chart i linked? Do you really think that's normal trading activity for a 2 months old exchange?
140.000 BTC equivalent of futures contract exchanged in 4 hours with absolutely no price movement and then 1.000 BTC traded in the following 12 hours?

BTC/USD futures 'volume' is often reported not in contracts, but in dollars. Looking at the chart you linked, by far the highest volume I see in any period is 137988.86. The chart provides no units. By comparison, the current 24-hour volume on ICBIT for the September contract is $1,346,180, an order of magnitude higher.

Since you have not told us anything about the contract, and you have not told us anything about how the numbers are actually reported -- and you hopefully do not expect anyone to run off and sign up for a new account just so that they can log into the site and answer the question for you -- the default 'sanity check' explanation that those of us who don't know the answers to those two questions would probably opt for is that the exchange reports dollar values, not contract numbers (and almost certainly not BTC values, for that matter).

If you're keen to grind an axe about fraudulent reporting, you'll need to show that the 'sanity check' explanation is false.

I'm not saying you are incorrect; you may be exactly correct. What I am saying, however, is that neither citing Mt Gox trading volumes in BTC nor citing 'futures volume' without any units attached will make a convincing case that anything is out of the ordinary.

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July 25, 2013, 04:25:04 PM
 #9

Volume shown is in BTC you can find informations here you don't need to sign up.

https://796.com/help.html

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DrGregMulhauser
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July 25, 2013, 04:46:32 PM
 #10

Volume shown is in BTC you can find informations here you don't need to sign up.

https://796.com/help.html

As far as I can tell from that baffling page, these 'futures' have close to nothing in common with real futures as used by the rest of the investing world. More to the point, however, nothing on this page explains any connection at all between the meaning of the word 'volume' when entering an order and the meaning of the word 'volume' when the exchange reports total trading activity in a chart.

These 'futures' look like a whacky front end for ordinary margin trading married to a guaranteed stop loss order (maybe something akin to what is to my mind the simpler and cleaner-looking BTC.sx setup?), but who knows? If that's correct, they're much closer to a CFD than a future.

Good luck; I have nothing to add to the party.

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Loozik
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July 25, 2013, 05:59:21 PM
 #11


As far as I can tell from that baffling page [...]

Yeah, the definitions they use are making me scratch my head, e.g. ''Volume - The intended unit of BTC for closeout, can't exceed holding positions at most.''

What a shitty definition  Huh
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July 25, 2013, 06:01:14 PM
 #12

Looking at the chart I see two volume spikes in consecutive 4 hr periods, one at 55k and one at 83k.  The info box displays open/high/low/close for these periods in USD so it is reasonable to assume volume is also usd.  Based on experience at ICBIT (and I may be wrong here), the volume may be double counted to account for both the buy and the sell for each trade.  If this is the case we are talking about trade vol worth 70k USD (or somewhere in the region of 750BTC).

Reading here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=233941.0 I see the futures platform is leveraged 2:1 for buyers and 4:1 for sellers, meaning that if a single buyer and seller were responsible for all buy/sell action (which is equally likely to not be the case) the amount of BTC required to execute on a 70k position at 50% and 25% margin respectively would be 375 BTC and 187 BTC respectively.

If somebody wanted to take a big position and offered a good price, this does not seem like unreasonable volume to me, and there is every chance that some of the volume represents the initial buyer/seller unwinding some or all of a smaller initial position, meaning even lower capital involvement (not to mention the high probability that the volume reflects activity across multiple traders).

In fact, the only unreasonable thing here seems to be the way in which you are throwing unfounded accusations around and claiming to be "sure" of them without any evidence whatsoever.  Even if they are a bunch of crooks, this isn't how to go about exposing them.
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July 25, 2013, 06:44:35 PM
 #13

It is BTC volume in that chart.

More evidences:

https://796.com/stockpd?op=market

This is the details page relative to the dividend paid in the month of june you can read "total volume of june: 67.808 BTC".
Now if you go back to the previous bitcoin futures chart and you sum up the volume shown in all those little blue coloumn (i did it) you will find out that effectively 67.808 BTC (real or not) have been exchanged in the month of june.

If you do the same calculations for the month of july you will find out that more then 600.000 BTC have been traded, yes 10 times the previous month (what a boom for a 2 month old exchange!) and about 70% what has been traded on MtGox during the same period wow, and nobody is even talking about their site.

And look at this:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I'm sure they are doing this to sell at a very high price their worthless fee shares. Fee shares value is obviously directly correlated to the monthly volume exchanged in the futures market. In fact fee shares are currently selling for 0.04 BTC each and on august 1 dividend per share will be about 0.00033 BTC. That is about 10% return yearly which is ok if only the july volume was real and sustainable.

I think they will keep on executing fake trades and pay very high dividends until they have sold all their 1 million shares. After that volume will drop and fee shares price with it.

I'm sorry for the poor explanation, my english is not very good but that site is obviously a scam and i don't want people to lose money to those crooks, too many scammers out there are hurting this movement reputation.

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796
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July 26, 2013, 03:19:25 PM
 #14

Since our company has free shares give out policy.  And some investors found that they can make profit by opening several accounts and do huge amount of trades aiming at getting our free shares.  We noticed that already and we did raise the difficulty of getting the free shares at 18:00 Peking time.  All the transactions are real.  And we have chat rooms with more than 1000 users and over their conversations, you can easily find out that a lot of them are willing to pay the commission for the trades in order to get the free 796 xchange shares.  All we can do is to raise the difficulty again and again.  And actually, we have raised the difficulty for 4 times already......
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July 26, 2013, 04:10:19 PM
 #15

Since our company has free shares give out policy.  And some investors found that they can make profit by opening several accounts and do huge amount of trades aiming at getting our free shares.  We noticed that already and we did raise the difficulty of getting the free shares at 18:00 Peking time.  All the transactions are real.  And we have chat rooms with more than 1000 users and over their conversations, you can easily find out that a lot of them are willing to pay the commission for the trades in order to get the free 796 xchange shares.  All we can do is to raise the difficulty again and again.  And actually, we have raised the difficulty for 4 times already......


So what about the price? Why didn't the volume spike move the price?

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July 26, 2013, 04:10:30 PM
 #16

Since our company has free shares give out policy.  And some investors found that they can make profit by opening several accounts and do huge amount of trades aiming at getting our free shares.  We noticed that already and we did raise the difficulty of getting the free shares at 18:00 Peking time.  All the transactions are real.  And we have chat rooms with more than 1000 users and over their conversations, you can easily find out that a lot of them are willing to pay the commission for the trades in order to get the free 796 xchange shares.  All we can do is to raise the difficulty again and again.  And actually, we have raised the difficulty for 4 times already......


All i can see is this:

"Invite your friends to register, enjoy rich rewards. For each referral deposit accrued to 16BTC, you will be rewarded 1 shares of 796 futures limited dividend rights stock(796Futures-PD)"
 https://796.com/invite

You only have to make a deposit to get free shares, no trading involved so what are you talking about?

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796
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July 26, 2013, 04:13:05 PM
 #17

Since our company has free shares give out policy.  And some investors found that they can make profit by opening several accounts and do huge amount of trades aiming at getting our free shares.  We noticed that already and we did raise the difficulty of getting the free shares at 18:00 Peking time.  All the transactions are real.  And we have chat rooms with more than 1000 users and over their conversations, you can easily find out that a lot of them are willing to pay the commission for the trades in order to get the free 796 xchange shares.  All we can do is to raise the difficulty again and again.  And actually, we have raised the difficulty for 4 times already......


All i can see is this:

"Invite your friends to register, enjoy rich rewards. For each referral deposit accrued to 16BTC, you will be rewarded 1 shares of 796 futures limited dividend rights stock(796Futures-PD)"
 https://796.com/invite

You only have to make a deposit to get free shares, no trading involved so what are you talking about?


https://796.com/other/stock.html?lang=en  Smiley
LeChatNoir
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July 26, 2013, 04:27:09 PM
 #18

Ok so i read for VIP2 level: for each bitcoin futures trading when open a position cumulative to 8 BTC, Gift 1 share.

VIP2 level pays 0.5% in commission on each trade so you have to pay 8*0.005=0.04 BTC fee to get a free share right?
Same results for higher vip levels.

How can someone find it profitable since stocks until yesterday have always traded lower then 0.04BTC each ??


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LeChatNoir
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July 26, 2013, 04:33:58 PM
 #19

And even if it is a little bit profitable would you explain me who the hell is paying all that much for those stocks?
If we consider june as normal trading activity, those fee shares are returning about 1% yearly at current prices.

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jl2012
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July 26, 2013, 04:37:51 PM
 #20

Ok so i read for VIP2 level: for each bitcoin futures trading when open a position cumulative to 8 BTC, Gift 1 share.

VIP2 level pays 0.5% in commission on each trade so you have to pay 8*0.005=0.04 BTC fee to get a free share right?
Same results for higher vip levels.

How can someone find it profitable since stocks until yesterday have always traded lower then 0.04BTC each ??



I think they explained: they dropped the rate after people trying to arbitrage. The rate shown is the current rate.

So my question is: what is the rate before adjustment?

Also an unanswered question: What about the price? Why didn't the volume spike move the price?

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