I frequently make use of the BTC and USD depth of markets to predict where prices will move and WHY. Exchange rates almost always equal the Dollar depth over the BTC depth as can be seen on these graphs.
But I've noticed a bit of divergence in the numbers lately and began to wonder if the growth in other exchanges is perhaps having an effect on the accuracy of this calculation. Were seeing a price divergence between Gox and all other exchanges, likely due to the ongoing difficult of getting USD out of Gox. Should we perhaps look at the total dollars and total BTC on all exchanges? Currently Bitstamp is the #2 exchange and holds a significant 24K BTC nearly a fifth of the 110-120K on Gox, but Bitstamp contain only a measly 1 million in USD depth compared to the 11-12 thats been the norm on Gox lately.
It seems clear the Bitstamp and other exchanges move whenever the price on Gox moves and that the dollars there would not alone support the price. The Bitstamp BTC/USD figure would be only in the $40 range so it's clear that the dollar depth on Gox matter to the price on Bitstamp, it is just logical to assume the BTC depth on Bitstamp effects the price on Gox.
Currently the Gox USD/BTC figure for Gox sugjests a price of nearly $105, a full $10 higher then the actual Gox price and substantially above the other exchanges. But when we add in the BitStamp coins and dollars the new becomes 13.5 million USD / 144K BTC and a predicted price of $95 exactly matches the current Gox price.
