If it bounces on $8800 we are still in the bubble run, which will pop sooner or later.
If it stabilizes on $6000, we would be on a ramp up for a second bigger bubble soon, invalidating the next scenario...
Long run trend is at $2000, methinks we will get there down slowly throughout 2018 until early or mid 2019.
Then we will be shooting for the big million in 2020.
It will get real scary mid 2018 when miners will start going out of business with very high difficulty. Lightning will still not be ready to save the day in 2018. There will be bugs. Delays. The usual.
But in 2020, you will see governmental and sovereign mining pools, because 2019-2020 sounds about the right timeline for fiat and fiatchains to go tits up, and for Lightning to be ready, tested and deployed.
But 2020 will be even more scary, fiat going tits up won't be pretty.
Leaving that here for the record
