Speculators: Stop using Mt. Gox.

[dree12]

Two charts. Make your own decision.

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[MoreFun]

Nothing so strange when the withdrawals are problematic - no other reason. Why would sell when you can not get money and huge decrease in price is not on radar and why would you deposit when you can buy cheaper on other places.

When / if gox will settle down those withrawal problems, your charts probably will reverse.

Anyway the second graf is cool.

[dree12]

Nothing so strange when the withdrawals are problematic - no other reason. Why would sell when you can not get money and huge decrease in price is not on radar and why would you deposit when you can buy cheaper on other places.

When / if gox will settle down those withrawal problems, your charts probably will reverse.

Anyway the second graf is cool.

The point isn't why Gox is different, it's why Gox is wrong. Bitcoin price movements on Gox represent what's going on in Gox, not the market.


For example, take a look at these two charts.




Notice how much smoother the Bitstamp chart is. There are fewer fake peaks and valleys.

[polrpaul]

Here's my data. Draw your own conclusions? 

[dree12]

Here's my data. Draw your own conclusions? 

It takes no words to prove that Mt. Gox is unusable as a speculation aid.

Take a look at this comparison. Which exchange seems to have reliable prices? Which exchange has odd oscillations that make speculation impossible?

[coinprize]

The point isn't why Gox is different, it's why Gox is wrong. Bitcoin price movements on Gox represent what's going on in Gox, not the market.

If mt.gox has the problem,
other sites's data would have the similar problem.

Since BTC has more than one transaction center.
And they are located in different areas.
Time zone/Currency/exchange rate/fees/volume are not the same.
So the price of BTC just a interval.

Each transaction center will have their own price movement.
Of course mt.gox could have its own trend.   

[dree12]

The point isn't why Gox is different, it's why Gox is wrong. Bitcoin price movements on Gox represent what's going on in Gox, not the market.

If mt.gox has the problem,
other sites's data would have the similar problem.

Since XBT has more than one transaction center.
And they are located in different areas.
Time zone/Currency/exchange rate/fees/volume are not the same.
So the price of XBT just a interval.

Each transaction center will have their own price movement.
Of course mt.gox could have its own trend.  

No, this is not the case. Other exchanges agree with each other. Gox is the only one out.

Look at the prices at top USD exchanges:

Mt. Gox: 95.4
Bitstamp: 89.33
BTC-E: 88.27
Tradehill: 90
Camp BX: 91.2

As you can see, most of them are around 90. Except for Mt. Gox, which is in a market of its own.

It's completely unfounded to say we'll reach 100 soon based on Mt. Gox data, because there is still a significant amount of room on all the other exchanges. (I still think we'll reach 100 soon, but not by looking at Mt. Gox's charts—because they're wrong!)

If you still don't believe that Gox is wrong, look at actual Bitcoin merchants.

Bitcoinstore: $90.05
Minethings: $92.81

You'll find a lot more like that, and very few accepting Bitcoin at 95.4.

[johnblaze]

Take a look at this comparison. Which exchange seems to have reliable prices? Which exchange has odd oscillations that make speculation impossible?

you dont seem to understand

speculators LIKE volitility. how else can they make money? they want the swings. speculation would be impossible if there were no swings

[Nagle]

The reason Bitcoin prices on Mt. Gox are higher than the other exchanges is because nobody can get their money out of Mt. Gox. The arbitrageurs are stuck.  Normally, when there's a significant difference between prices on two exchanges, somebody buys on one and sells on the other, making an immediate profit. Soon, the spread narrows and such activity stops. There are 'bots doing this automatically. It's the same money going round and round; arbitrageurs don't have to keep injecting money into the system to do this.

With Mt. Gox refusing to allow withdrawals (or broke), that activity stops, due to lack of available cash for buying Bitcoins on non Mt. Gox exchanges. The necessary cash is stuck (or lost) in Mt. Gox cash accounts.

Putting in more money to buy Bitcoins on Bitstamp to sell on Mt. Gox would be a big mistake. You end up with a cash balance on Mt. Gox you can't withdraw and may lose if (when) they go down.

[dree12]

The reason Bitcoin prices on Mt. Gox are higher than the other exchanges is because nobody can get their money out of Mt. Gox. The arbitrageurs are stuck.  Normally, when there's a significant difference between prices on two exchanges, somebody buys on one and sells on the other, making an immediate profit. Soon, the spread narrows and such activity stops. There are 'bots doing this automatically. It's the same money going round and round; arbitrageurs don't have to keep injecting money into the system to do this.

With Mt. Gox refusing to allow withdrawals (or broke), that activity stops, due to lack of available cash for buying Bitcoins on non Mt. Gox exchanges. The necessary cash is stuck (or lost) in Mt. Gox cash accounts.

Putting in more money to buy Bitcoins on Bitstamp to sell on Mt. Gox would be a big mistake. You end up with a cash balance on Mt. Gox you can't withdraw and may lose if (when) they go down.

Again, I don't care why Mt. Gox is wrong. It's wrong, and consequently one shouldn't speculate on it.

Take a look at this comparison. Which exchange seems to have reliable prices? Which exchange has odd oscillations that make speculation impossible?

you dont seem to understand

speculators LIKE volitility. how else can they make money? they want the swings. speculation would be impossible if there were no swings

This topic was moved, which didn't really make sense. The desired audience is the Speculation forum. I'll PM Blitz to see if I can move it back.

[KgBC]

Hi, my 2 cents:
Each trader, using his own data, is a MUST for a decentralized currency. It's a good thing for the market.
So there is no wrong or right, it's MtGox rate and other rates.

[dree12]

Hi, my 2 cents:
Each trader, using his own data, is a MUST for a decentralized currency. It's a good thing for the market.
So there is no wrong or right, it's MtGox rate and other rates.

I can publish my own rates too. I can even start an exchange accepting monopoly money and testnet coins. But those rates are not to be considered fit for consumption, and consequently Mt. Gox rates are untrustworthy.

I am not telling you to stop trading on Mt. Gox. I am telling the posters in the Speculation forum to use charts and data, such as volume data, from other sources aside from Mt. Gox.

Maybe this thread belongs in Meta?