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比特币耗电2020年与全球用电量持平?专家:不一定
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Topic: 比特币耗电2020年与全球用电量持平?专家:不一定 (Read 55 times)
banbangfa
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比特币耗电2020年与全球用电量持平?专家:不一定
December 25, 2017, 04:25:42 AM
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有人认为,用计算机挖比特币消耗大量电力,用不了多久,一年挖矿消耗的电力就会超过美国的耗电量。数据认为,每年挖矿的耗电量已经超过大多国家的耗电量,大约与保加利亚的耗电量相当。预测认为,到了2019年,比特币挖矿消耗的电力就会追上美国,如果保持同样的速度继续增长,到了2020年就会与全球用电量持平。上述数据正是根据Digiconomist的估算得出的。
然而一些能源IT专家认为,所有分析都是以一个比特币耗电估计数据作为基础的,而这个估计数据非常不可靠。虽然专家们保持怀疑,但是网站Digiconomist给出的耗电量估计数据却被许多人接受,记者、研究分析师、亿万富翁投资者都使用它的数据。
当我们预测未来比特币的能量消耗时,也是根据这一模型测算的。20世纪90年代中期,有许多人认为互联网数据会疯狂增长,结果导致企业在容量方面投入过多,但是却根本不需要那么多。
斯坦福大学讲师乔纳森·库梅(Jonathan Koomey)认为:“疯狂的预测会给真实世界造成影响。比特币会刺激全球总体电力需求上涨吗?我并不这样认为。这些电力只占了所有数据中心用电量的很小一部分。”
挖矿到底消耗多少电量?一些专家警告说,现在还没有可靠、可信的评估方式。他们认为,如果要估算,第一步就是要从数据中心收集硬数据,但是没有人这样做过。
MIT斯隆管理学院助理教授克里斯蒂安·卡塔利尼(Christian Catalini)指出:“今天你所看到的许多估算都是根据薄弱的假设得出的。”卡塔利尼还说,如果拿不到矿工的数据,就没有办法对挖矿电量进行有效的评估。
因为没有硬数据,市场只好从其它地方寻找资料分析比特币对全球能源需求的影响。
几天前,Nomura发表报告,预测说从2018年开始比特币将会对全球能源市场造成影响。Nomura认为用来挖掘比特币的电量达到了33.2太瓦(万亿瓦)。这一数字正是根据比特币能源消费指数得出的,也就是Digiconomist提供的数据。
指数认为,11月份,比特币挖矿消耗的电量增长26%,现在已经接近每年36太瓦的水平,相当于330万户家庭的用电量。比如将比特币看成一个国家,它的耗电量可以排在59位。
库梅指出,Digiconomist模型有许多假设成份。他认为这种模式从本质上就是错的,因为模型根据矿主的营收、消费估计数据估算比特币耗电量。
Digiconomist指数是28岁的亚历克斯·德·弗里斯(Alex de Vries)制作的,他深信自己的数据没有错。弗里斯认为,要计算能耗下限是相当容易的事。如果所有挖矿任务都在最快的机器上处理,条件达到最优,估计消耗电量13-14太瓦。弗里斯认为,并不是所有挖矿任务都在最优条件下完成,所以估计并不准。弗里斯告诉CNBC:“我对数字非常有信心,如果没有信心,我就不会发布。”
爱立信研究院的专家延斯·马尔莫丁(Jens Malmodin)也对Digiconomist的估计保持怀疑。在他看来,有一点很不可信,Digiconomist认为比特币挖矿消耗的电量相当于谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Facebook、苹果用电量的两倍。
荷兰内梅亨大学助理教授赫拉德·弗兰肯(Harald Vranken)也在研究比特币耗电量,他估计现在只消耗1-4千兆瓦。弗兰肯在邮件中告诉CNBC:“因为比特币的兑换率正在上升,电价各有不同,所以很难准确估计。”
Power Compare是一个英国电力信息网,正是它给出预测,说比特币耗电量2019年就会超过美国,2020年与全球耗电量持平。但是库梅认为Power Compare的估计犯了一个典型的错误,新技术以超高增长率膨胀,未来也会保持高增长率,结果导致预测数据高得吓人。弗里斯也认为Power Compare的估计不现实。(新浪科技)
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比特币耗电2020年与全球用电量持平?专家:不一定
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