KNC ROI Figures

[Phoenix1969]

[img] http://imgur.com/a/BgLrc [img]
all figures are default, just as the BFL, for equal comparison, with the exception of september start time

[NetTime]

Looks positive, really hope they deliver on schedule.

[pixl8tr]

[img] http://imgur.com/a/X04vr [img]
all figures are default, just as the BFL, for equal comparison, with the exception of september start time

Except you have difficulty increase per month at 46% for KnC and  62% for BFL!! Not really an "Equal" comparison.

[Phoenix1969]

omg, it did that on its own...i will correct, ty

there
http://imgur.com/a/BgLrc

[JohnyBigs]

omg, it did that on its own...i will correct, ty


http://imgur.com/a/BgLrc

What website is that again?

[NetTime]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[bitcoinarnold]

Op, there is no way you will have  KNC in hand by september. November is a more realistic start.

[FCTaiChi]

Op, there is no way you will have  KNC in hand by september. November is a more realistic start.

Yeah, they say they aren't even shipping until late Oct.

[ultrix]

Problem is that 62% is the rate it will increase for a few months, likely until November, then it will decline.  I would guess the curve would likely be like with GPU mining when it first started out, since GPUs had a very long life within the bitcoin network.   Or maybe FPGAs, although they seemed to have a fairly short life with respect to their mass introduction and subsequent becoming "dated".

[tacotime]

Problem is that 62% is the rate it will increase for a few months, likely until November, then it will decline.  I would guess the curve would likely be like with GPU mining when it first started out, since GPUs had a very long life within the bitcoin network.   Or maybe FPGAs, although they seemed to have a fairly short life with respect to their mass introduction and subsequent becoming "dated".

The amusing thing is that people keep shouting out, "It'll never make ROI," based on the assumption that the hashrate can continue its exponential increase in computational power at several fold the rate of Moore's law (never mind anything else) and that the price of Bitcoin will always stay the same.

Personally I would be surprised if we see KnC miner products before 2014, though.

[ultrix]

Problem is that 62% is the rate it will increase for a few months, likely until November, then it will decline.  I would guess the curve would likely be like with GPU mining when it first started out, since GPUs had a very long life within the bitcoin network.   Or maybe FPGAs, although they seemed to have a fairly short life with respect to their mass introduction and subsequent becoming "dated".

The amusing thing is that people keep shouting out, "It'll never make ROI," based on the assumption that the hashrate can continue its exponential increase in computational power at several fold the rate of Moore's law (never mind anything else) and that the price of Bitcoin will always stay the same.

Personally I would be surprised if we see KnC miner products before 2014, though.

I think KNC will deliver on time.   I would be surprised if they aren't scheduling an MPW run right now.

[madsusies]

Relax boys, you'll be lucky if you see the Avalon chips in Nov.  till then will be Josh and Sonny in jail  = the Difficulty Factor do not speed up w/o new asic booth so quickly

[DeathAndTaxes]

The amusing thing is that people keep shouting out, "It'll never make ROI," based on the assumption that the hashrate can continue its exponential increase in computational power at several fold the rate of Moore's law (never mind anything else) and that the price of Bitcoin will always stay the same.

Forever?  No but in the short term it is fairly easy.

Miners tend to be pretty stupid when it comes to ROI% on capital costs so the difficulty tends to track the average electrical effeciency and exchange rate.  Assuming exchange rate remains the same we are talking on average a 150:1 improvement in electrical efficiency.  That means the watts per block and thus electrical cost per block falling by 1/150.  The network could easily suppport difficulty rising to 2-3 billion.  So yeah it can rise 60% a month for some time before reaching a new equilibrium due to higher efficiency.  

[Ytterbium]

Op, there is no way you will have  KNC in hand by september. November is a more realistic start.

Nor is there any 'way' that difficulty is going to keep rising 62% each month for the next year.

They haven't announced any tape out or anything. No details at all besides some funky diagrams and a FPGA prototype. I'll be god damn surprised if they can and actual deliver anything before November.

Why are you assuming they would have announced their tape out date when it happened?  If they say they're on track for September, obviously they must have taped out for now.

Ether they taped out already and are on track for September, or
They taped out in the past and are lying about being on track for September.

But if they're lying, then they could simply lie about having taped out.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Op, there is no way you will have  KNC in hand by september. November is a more realistic start.

Nor is there any 'way' that difficulty is going to keep rising 62% each month for the next year.

It really depends on how much foolishly purchased pre-order hashing power has already been purchased.  Once ordered the hashpower will eventually be delivered causing the difficulty to keep rising long after new sales no longer make any sense due to negative ROI%.

A miner who has ALREADY bought has no reason to not mine because the purchase price is a sunk cost and difficulty would need to be > 6 billion before the electrical cost was greater than the mined coins (at current exchange rate).  So you "could" see this scenario were difficulty keeps rising and rising and rising and despite everyone saying "buying new rigs is stupid now" it keeps rising as ALREADY purchased rigs are slowly delivered.

[Dalkore]

Op, there is no way you will have  KNC in hand by september. November is a more realistic start.

Nor is there any 'way' that difficulty is going to keep rising 62% each month for the next year.

It really depends on how much foolishly purchased pre-order hashing power has already been purchased.  Once ordered the hashpower will eventually be delivered causing the difficulty to keep rising long after new sales no longer make any sense due to negative ROI%.

A miner who has ALREADY bought has no reason to not mine because the purchase price is a sunk cost and difficulty would need to be > 6 billion before the electrical cost was greater than the mined coins (at current exchange rate).  So you "could" see this scenario were difficulty keeps rising and rising and rising and despite everyone saying "buying new rigs is stupid now" it keeps rising as ALREADY purchased rigs are slowly delivered.

Sounds bittersweet.  I wonder how many people will actually bang their head on a wall.  You have an interesting angle on how the slow deliveries might of maintained an artificially low difficulty rate that allowed more people to think it was a good idea to purchase new asic hardware.    Don't see any major holes in that D&T.

[FeedbackLoop]

Why is everyone so certain that difficulty increases will be below 60% a month?

Not sure how much this estimate is exaggerated for Avalon latest shipments but faster increases than what we are seeing now are very possible with all the people sending millions after ever more powerful and more mass produced ASICs:

http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/


That said I do have a KNC order.    

[ultrix]

Why is everyone so certain that difficulty increases will be below 60% a month?

Not sure how much this estimate is exaggerated for Avalon latest shipments but faster increases than what we are seeing now are very possible with all the people sending millions after ever more powerful and more mass produced ASICs:

http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/


That said I do have a KNC order.    

Not saying it won't increase at 60%+ for a while.  But it can't exceed the rate at which new processes come online at foundries, which is roughly a statement of Moore's law.  That is, in the long run.  The next few months will be hectic.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Why is everyone so certain that difficulty increases will be below 60% a month?

Not sure how much this estimate is exaggerated for Avalon latest shipments but faster increases than what we are seeing now are very possible with all the people sending millions after ever more powerful and more mass produced ASICs:

http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/


That said I do have a KNC order.     

Not saying it won't increase at 60%+ for a while.  But it can't exceed the rate at which new processes come online at foundries, which is roughly a statement of Moore's law.  That is, in the long run.  The next few months will be hectic.

We haven't even caught UP to Moore's law.  Yes in 2-3 years when all units are available with 2-3 day delivery and the network is 40,000 TH/s+ then yes difficulty growth for a fixed exchange rate will slow to Moore's law but even then if the exchange rate goes up 5x expect difficulty to follow even with no improvement in efficiency. 

So difficulty won't increase 60% per month perpetually until the universe dies of heat death but depending on the amount of pre-orders, the improvement pace of future ASICs (until caught up to current process technology = 28nm), and the future exchange rate it can rise by a lot for a very very long time.    Anyone thinking difficulty will only go up 400% or 1000% and flatline is likely going to be poorer for that faulty logic.

[SirWizz]

Anyone thinking difficulty will only go up 400% or 1000% and flatline is likely going to be poorer for that faulty logic.

And why is that so hard to imagine? The madness is tied to the price of bitcoin, so it will stop at some point unless the value of the bitcoin goes up.