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人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4%
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Topic: 人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4% (Read 48 times)
wall63248555
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人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4%
December 25, 2017, 07:23:53 AM
#1
人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4% 2018年汇率或在6.40至6.80区间波动
《证券日报》记者获悉,22日,人民币对美元汇率报6.5821,较上一个交易日下跌26个基点,结束此前三个交易日连续上涨的态势。据统计,截至当日,2017年以来人民币对美元实现了约5.4%的升值。
东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,过去几个交易日,人民币连接出现比较明显的涨幅,主要是对同期美元指数连续4个交易日持续下滑的市场反应。这一阶段的美元回调则体现了在税改消息兑现后,市场对美国议会能否通过“权宜支出法案”、避免部分政府机构关门的疑虑。22日,随着该项法案通过,美元展开反弹,人民币中间价小幅调贬。
展望2018年人民币汇率基本方向,日前闭幕的中央经济工作会议提出:“保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定”。与2016年年底召开的中央经济工作会议对汇率的提法相比较,去除了“增强汇率弹性”这一点。
交通银行金融研究中心研究专员刘健昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,这在一定程度上反映出尽管2017年以来人民币对美元汇率稳中有升,但汇率维稳政策取向不会轻易改变。内部来看,人民币汇率贬值预期并未销声匿迹,银行代客结售汇大部分月份仍为逆差;外部来看,特朗普税改取得重要进展,2018年美联储仍可能加息三次并可能加快缩表节奏背景下,人民币汇率仍可能面临一些贬值压力。考虑到今年的中央经济工作会议再次明确提出了“要把防风险放到重要位置”,而汇率风险也是重要的金融风险之一,预计2018年针对外汇和资本流动的宏微观审慎强化监管不会明显放松,保持人民币汇率基本稳定依然是2018年的总体政策取向。
王青认为,与前两年相比,2017年以来人民币对美元不仅实现了约5.4%的升值,而且双向波动特征明显——9月初升值幅度曾一度达到7.2%,汇率弹性显著增强。可以说已在较大程度上实现了2016年中央经济工作会议制定的政策目标。
“2018年,防范化解重大风险被列为三大攻坚战的首位,重点是防控金融风险,而汇率非理性大幅波动是引发或放大金融风险的一个潜在因素。本次中央经济工作会议强调‘保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定’,体现了对确保实现明年经济工作目标的要求。”王青表示。
最后,王青表示,2018我国会继续推进人民币汇率市场化改革,一定范围内的市场波动将是正常现象,预计明年人民币汇率很可能在6.40至6.80区间波动。主要不确定因素仍是全球政治、经济风险对美元走势可能带来的影响,这其中包括2018年美国与其他发达国家在经济复苏程度及货币政策正常化速度方面的对比等。
刘健认为,2018年人民币对美元汇率可能面临小幅贬值压力,但整体不悲观。特朗普税改所提出的企业所得税一次性的大幅削减将提振企业盈利,促进投资和海外存留利润回流,可能使人民币汇率面临一定的贬值压力。但2018年中国经济总体运行预计仍将保持平稳,国际收支有望继续处于盈余状态,基本面不会对人民币汇率构成明显的贬值压力,而逆周期因子及市场预期分化等因素,决定了人民币对美元汇率即使面临贬值压力,幅度也将较为有限。此外,欧央行的纠结或将随着欧元区经济数据持续向好而减弱,界时制约美元走强的力量或将再显威风。总体来看,2018年人民币对美元汇率将呈现有升有贬的双向波动走势。
dudu131418
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Re: 人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4%
December 25, 2017, 07:33:42 AM
#2
人民币越来越不值钱了
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人民币对美元年内累计升值5.4%
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