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央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
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Topic: 央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例 (Read 81 times)
anastasia7627
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央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
December 25, 2017, 10:19:02 AM
#1
临近年末,如果要评选2017年全球涨幅最大的资产,比特币绝对有机会入选。从年初以来,比特币价格从不到1000美元,一直涨到目前的14000多美元,上涨了13倍,其间甚至一度冲击过20000美元大关。
自诞生以来,人们对比特币的看法就极度两极分化:一边是狂热的信徒,一边是不断发出警告而又一次次落空的人。比特币就是这样在一路警告中不断走高,市值膨胀到了目前的2400亿美元,如果将其与美国上市公司一起进行市值排名的话,它可以排在甲骨文、花旗、英特尔之前。
央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
比特币为什么如此令众生颠倒?它是否真的有巨大的价值?在我看来,比特币价值为零这一点是毋庸置疑的,但为什么一些认为比特币泡沫将很快破裂的人,如摩根大通的CEO杰米·戴蒙,被市场现实无情打脸呢?当然,有些人一开始对比特币是怀疑的,但在不断上涨的行情面前,开始相信比特币在现实世界拥有美好的未来。
央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
比特币这种毫无价值的东西持续受到疯狂追捧,确实有点不可思议,要理解这个问题,在我看来只能从行为心理学出发,把它放在金融史的维度上才能看得比较清楚。170年前,有一个叫查尔斯·麦基的美国人写了一本名为《大癫狂:非同寻常的大众幻想与群众性癫狂》的书,这本书搜集了历史上十几个非同寻常的群众性癫狂事件,既有郁金香泡沫、南海泡沫、密西西比骗局等金融事件,也有圣物崇拜、十字军东征狂热等与宗教相关的群体性事件,甚至是基于一些莫名其妙传闻的群众狂热。
央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
这些事件有一个共同的特点,就是卷入人数众多,持续时间非常长,数年甚至数十年,在事件发生的当时尽管也有质疑的声音但根本抵挡不住事物发展的势头。此外,这些案例还有一个共同特点,事件的由头都具有鲜明的时代特点,并且看上去极富创意。
比特币毫无价值,这点笔者已多次论证过,在此不想再次重复。而这种无价值之物之所以颠倒众生,让千万人为之痴狂,无疑是源于人们的从众心理,而这种从众心理之所以形成,是因为比特币具备了上述案例的共同特点:极具创意,鲜明的时代性,直指我们这个时代的痛点——政府货币可信度的严重下降。但是,指出我们时代的问题不等于找到了解决的答案,但无论如何,戳中时代痛点为其奠定了广泛的群众基础。
央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
从历史案例可以看出,一个戳中时代痛点、拥有广泛基础、充满酷炫色彩的东西,绝不可能瞬间退潮,它可能持续数年,甚至数十年。所以,对历史有所了解的人明知比特币毫无价值,也不会轻易地去预测这一群众性癫狂何时结束。事实上,从题材的重大性、外表的奇幻性来看,比特币与《群众性癫狂》一书中所列的案例相比只是有过之而无不及。所以,如果将来有人要出《大癫狂:非同寻常的大众幻想与群众性癫狂》增补版的话,比特币完全有资格作为21世纪前30年的代表性案例而纳入其中。
nanayueky
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Re: 央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
December 26, 2017, 06:09:09 AM
#2
自己在被奴役的梦中,却还说别人癫狂。先检讨下,怎么在自然灾害情况下,死了上千万人吧!
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央媒发声明确比特币毫无价值 不过是群众性癫狂的典型案例
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