Why MUST Bitcoin crash and have another winter?

[Enjel]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.
Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something).

On what basis other than "Deja Vu" from TA can they make this prediction with any certainty?

What about the fact that nowadays BTC circulation is very different than in 2013?

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[thejaytiesto]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.
Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something).

On what basis other than "Deja Vu" from TA can they make this prediction with any certainty?

What about the fact that nowadays BTC circulation is very different than in 2013?

Things are not like in 2013. In 2013 there was only one exchange, the entire market depended on MtGox's performance, which was absolutely fucking insane. Of course the shithole crashed and then so did the price. Most people didn't even understood that a centralized market crashing/getting hacked is irrelevant to Bitcoin itself working properly.

Nowadays, the market is infinite times more liquid, we have a ton of exchanges, and there is a more widespread culture of how if damn exchange gets hacked doesn't mean Bitcoin got hacked (even if a lot of people STILL don't understand this basic fact).

So no, fundamentals are not like in 2013, and I don't see why we would crash another 90% as we did back then. This dip was nothing but a peanut. Everyday Bitcoin stays above $10000, the harder it will be to go below it.

[tomahawk9]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.
Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something).

On what basis other than "Deja Vu" from TA can they make this prediction with any certainty?

What about the fact that nowadays BTC circulation is very different than in 2013?

That last question is the answer to all of those TA bullcrap analysis that keep comparing the last correction to the 2013 crash.
You can compare charts analysis, price movements, etc, but when it comes to BTC volume and exchanges, things change drastically since there isn't a single entity that handles more than 70% bitcoin transactions like mtgox did back in the day, and there are way more exchanges now than 5 years ago.
All of these dumb comparisons with the 2013 crash are nothing but another FUD campaign going around in the forum.

[hahahafr]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.

No, it wont happen, at least not for now.

It has crashed by more than 45% during this week, i dont know if you are aware of that (maybe a crash for you is a dump of 99%, which that is not a crash, it is a critical situation)

It went from $20,500 (ATH) to $10,500 in less than five days, it was a crash...

And now it is recovering.

[JanpriX]

The time right now is very different to what we have in crypto last 2013. The crash that they are talking about will not be happening and the TA that they are showing to us (with the 2013 graph) is useless with so many factors to consider. They must take note that in 2013, nobody heard of BTC and financial market is not even touching it. Fastforward to 2017, the adaption rate of BTC skyrocketed and the financial market has also entered the scene. The demand for BTC is at all-time-high and because of these factors, I'm not expecting for a big crash to happen.

On the other note, consolidation from ATH will always be present with BTC. It will always be there but the crash to 2k or 4k will definitely not happen considering the things that are happening right now.

[fabiorem]

It "must" for bears who shorted it all when they should not.

When you going short, short just a small part, say 5% of your stash. In case you lose, it will not hurt that much.

[~Bitcoin~]

We shouldn't compare between bitcoin market in 2013 and now as many things has changed in last 4 years mainly support for bitcoin. People are going crazy about bitcoin and they will never miss the opportunity to buy cheap coins whenever they can during huge dump/correction like the recent one.

When all profit takers will end up selling all their holdings, newbie buyers will pump the coin to new ATH again and same gonna happen before new year on jan next year.

[gentlemand]

In 2013 the Bitcoin market was mainly populated by humans. In 2017 humans are still present.

Humans get excited, spend far too much on the thing they're excited by until there aren't enough to satisfy demand and the price soars, and then a few panic and run away followed by everyone else until there's no one willing to buy the same thing. That's what humans do in all markets and always will.

Whether we're at that point is unknown, but at some point we certainly will be. It's as natural and inevitable as the sun coming up in the morning. Then the cycle begins again.

[Youghoor]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.

No one is thinking about a crash right now, not even me (and sometimes i am not even a quarter of positive that some people are in here)

I am not being a bad person just for saying this, but maybe the price is very overvalued at the moment, but a crash right now? Hell, no, everybody is investing in bitcoin right now, this bubble has just started.

if there is going to be a crash, it will happen in more than months/years from now

[TERA2]

Its a simple economic law of exponential rises which applies particularly to bitcoin history. Because when these bubbles happen a rubber band gets loaded in which a bunch short term traders come on board, people with no knowledge of bitcoin buy into the frenzy, traders become overleveraged, spend more they can afford, take out loans, and use margin, etc, there is nothing but good news, and there is a lack of potent FUD. Eventually the rubber band snaps and all of this reverses. It can be catalyzed either by FUD or by exchange failure but once it happens there is no stopping the cascade of events. Traders take profit, stops are triggered, whales dump, maybe some country is taken out of the market, maybe some exchange closes, margin calls are issued, foreclosures occur, and then after all THAT the FUD is released and new cycle of it happens all over again. It must go all the way down until it meets a significant support level from the past. The last one was at $5500.

[mrcash02]

Not only the fact BTC circulation now is larger than before, but there are other factors that influence too. Number of investors increased too much, businesses accepting BTC increased too much, money invested in Crypto-Currency in general increased, rich people are now in the game, etc... I would say now it's safer than before to invest in Bitcoin and if there will be another winter soon it won't be like that one.

[Kingofbitcoin12345]

Those speculators using such basis of argument which is totally outdated as 2013 is never have the same adaptation than 2017.. If I was the one to ask about this pump and dump then it will still be consider a normal thing.. Maybe I’m not an old bitcoiners that have many experienced during past few years but this year give me enough clue and understanding how bitcoin moves..

[TERA2]

Yes there are things that have increase btc value but also the price has increased 20 times since the last crash in order to cancel out this growth so we are on a brand new basis point and everything will be the same.

[CryptoBry]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now. Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something). On what basis other than "Deja Vu" from TA can they make this prediction with any certainty? What about the fact that nowadays BTC circulation is very different than in 2013?

There can be some correlation in the past but there is no guarantee that what specifically happened in the past will also be happening today or in the future because the situations around Bitcoin now and then are different. Nobody can really predict what can be happening tomorrow so we just have to wait of what will really be. And this is adding more excitement to the whole experience.  Let us not allow anything to be a self-fulfilling policy. Instead, let's look forward for a better future for Bitcoin and for all of us.

[pooya87]

a crypto winter

this is not a real term and nobody uses it.
maybe you can make one, but calling it an "altcoin winter" makes a lot more sense. since after each pump they have, the pumpers leave them in the ditch to pump other coins and come back to pump them after the cycle was complete.

Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something).

there are certain people who are interested in spreading FUD about bitcoin. they believe that if they spread enough FUD they can make that happen. so they keep creating new accounts, they keep spamming everywhere including this forum with their FUD.

in the end, the market is moving regardless of their folly

[player514]

Some people are saying that just because the price pattern is similar to that in the past (2013), where there was a large rise and a crypto winter following, that a similar thing must happen now.
Basically, they are very certain that the price of BTC will hit some highs (maybe 40k, let's say, or even 19k?), and then plummet to the ground (like 2k or 4k or something).

On what basis other than "Deja Vu" from TA can they make this prediction with any certainty?

What about the fact that nowadays BTC circulation is very different than in 2013?

Remember that nothing is ever "due" to happen. Saying that something is bound to happen or that something will happen in the future based on previous patterns is a load of extrapolation. There's no way of knowing what will be happening in the next few days of bitcoin. Those people who are claiming that this must happen now are clearly unable to justify what they said. Instead, just stick with what you see in your own research about the coin. If you have ample evidence to believe that it will go up, then buy some. Don't listen to others.

[Wilhelm]

Regardless of the 2013 incident we still know with high certainty that Bitcoin will go up eventually

[heringasem]

It doesnt need to crash, if fact, if it crashes again a lot of people are going to lost their trust again.. and the price will collapse again. Just remember that people are only interested on their money, not on how bitcoin is doing.

[TERA2]

ACtually dips are neccessary in order to curb the volatility. The problem is that bitcoin has gone up TOO much recently without a serious capitulation - 2000% this year after 500% last year - 10,000% in 2 years. That high of a rise is going to warrant a really steep crash. If it hadn't gone up as much and only topped out at say 5,000, then we might only have a crash to say 3000, and it wouldnt be a big deal.

[Tankdestroyer]

It doesnt need to crash, if fact, if it crashes again a lot of people are going to lost their trust again.. and the price will collapse again. Just remember that people are only interested on their money, not on how bitcoin is doing.

You are right that it doesn't need to crash, but price falling down greatly resulting into crash is inevitable and will surely happen at some point. It ain't related to 2013 but I say that it is inevitable because people who use btc mostly holds Bitcoin for speculation purposes and it will be a factor of a crash. I can imagine it happening when there are uncertainty in btc and if by that time it is still profitable to sell for some holders. I can't say it is soon to happen though. Who knows, maybe that crash will happen when btc is above 50,000$ and it will only get price to return to 10,000$.