Futures - the verdict so far

[gentlemand]

What is it?

I still don't understand anything about it and never will, so I'd like more observant and intelligent posters here to tell me what, if any, effect they've had on the real Bitcoin market after these futures markets have been rolling for a few days. 

[BitHodler]

Futures are nothing more than contracts where you up front make an agreement to buy or sell Bitcoin at a certain price level after a month for example. If so, you have to deposit half the amount of the contract value up front.

After the contract has expired, you'll either win or lose. Regarding their actual effect on their market in current state, it's nonexistent aside from the speculation that is baked into our market right now.

According to CBOE CEO, eventually the two sided markets will start to come together more, which should decrease the volatility, but I am not quite sure how much of this will actually be true ~ patience is what we need right now.

[Virtual miner]

What is it?

I still don't understand anything about it and never will, so I'd like more observant and intelligent posters here to tell me what, if any, effect they've had on the real Bitcoin market after these futures markets have been rolling for a few days. 

If we look closely the bitcoin market itself has not been much affected by the futures and their trading but all it has done is that it has brought a whole new lot of investors to the bitcoin market. As people who were trading on stock exchanges are now aware of cryptos and will surely come to cryptos too. So it has increased awareness regarding bitcoin and aggravated its future standing.

Futures are nothing more than contracts where you up front make an agreement to buy or sell Bitcoin at a certain price level after a month for example. If so, you have to deposit half the amount of the contract value up front.

After the contract has expired, you'll either win or lose. Regarding their actual effect on their market in current state, it's nonexistent aside from the speculation that is baked into our market right now.

According to CBOE CEO, eventually the two sided markets will start to come together more, which should decrease the volatility, but I am not quite sure how much of this will actually be true ~ patience is what we need right now.

I don't think there can be better explanation of a future than this. Just for additional information that these future contracts will expire next year in January.

[949miner]

So tell me, are you worried about the price or just of the function of the futures?

If the answer is the first option, then let me tell you that you are just like the rest..

The futures are just the same thing that you see on almost all the other brokers, long/short positions, and they are not going to change anything.

A lot of people said that the price was going to go to zero because of them.. and do you see now? The price hasn't even moved.

I still don't understand anything about it and never will, so I'd like more observant and intelligent posters here to tell me what, if any, effect they've had on the real Bitcoin market after these futures markets have been rolling for a few days. 

[exstasie]

What is it?

I still don't understand anything about it and never will, so I'd like more observant and intelligent posters here to tell me what, if any, effect they've had on the real Bitcoin market after these futures markets have been rolling for a few days. 

I've got mixed feelings and limited knowledge. I've also seen mixed opinions from more knowledgeable traders. Some people seem to think manipulation is impossible, but I haven't seen a compelling reason why.

Two things are worth noting. 1) The market crashed the day CME futures launched. The highest volume session (until the bottom on 12/22) occurred right when the market opened. 2) The holidays are often turbulent in the Bitcoin markets. This Christmas holiday was completely quiet. Then the futures market opened today 12/26, and the market erupted with a $2,500 daily candle.

Coincidences? I'm not so sure.

[NeuroticFish]

From what I know, the use of Bitcoin futures now it's far too small to actually matter. Too few contracts are made yet.
So there was the news that always influences the market. On the news Bitcoin rose, at delivery, since the use is low/limited, Bitcoin got correction.
All this is more complicated because the normal volatility, the more news coming, the end-of-year calculations and days off, and so on and so on, so it's hard to give a proper verdict.

Imho the news and expectations about the futures influenced the price a lot in December. Not the delivery though..

[gentlemand]

So tell me, are you worried about the price or just of the function of the futures?

I'm not really worried about anything, I'd just like to know whether anyone's detected any identifiable repercussions on the raw Bitcoin market from these futures so far.

[rodalutor]

What is it?

I still don't understand anything about it and never will, so I'd like more observant and intelligent posters here to tell me what, if any, effect they've had on the real Bitcoin market after these futures markets have been rolling for a few days. 

My interpretation is that thus far they have had little to no effect. I think they brought in a wave of positive investment prior to launching but since then the effect has been little to none. In time it may grow to be more significant as futures become more traded but right now nothing in my humble opinion.

[tomahawk9]

So tell me, are you worried about the price or just of the function of the futures?

I'm not really worried about anything, I'd just like to know whether anyone's detected any identifiable repercussions on the raw Bitcoin market from these futures so far.

I think it's still too early to say if there's been a significant change in the market.

I was one of those who thought Futures would help decrease the volatility, we did see the price stabalizing without major changes after the cboe bitcoin futures, but when CME btc futures went live, the volatility went back to normal with big up and down swings.

So far, there hasn't been any 'big changes' in the Bitcoin market, but perhaps we'll see some kind of impact in the long-term.

[Alns]

The futures haven't affected the price by much.
I think that a lot of people were expecting to see a huge short from the big boys, but it didn't happened, and i remember that there were tons of fud posts on here about the probably shorters from walls street and the cboe-cme.
It was all a panic scheme, i have never believed on that, this is why i am still holding, doesnt matter what.

And if someday there is a big crash,it wont be because of futures, it will be because of the stupidity from the holders.

[Dutchyyy]

Futures are 'The American Way' to invest in bitcoin with literally no interest outside US.

I guess this will change in 2018 but for now futures impact is very low.

[yinyangwinwang]

The futures haven't affected the price by much.
I think that a lot of people were expecting to see a huge short from the big boys, but it didn't happened, and i remember that there were tons of fud posts on here about the probably shorters from walls street and the cboe-cme.
It was all a panic scheme, i have never believed on that, this is why i am still holding, doesnt matter what.

And if someday there is a big crash,it wont be because of futures, it will be because of the stupidity from the holders.

Well to be fair going from 19k to mid 13k is not nothing and it did happen. That was the short that everybody was referring to or at least I was and it happened 100%. After that I expected BTC to rebound and retest for another ATH despite the fact it went down so hard. To each their own but yes agree 100% with that last sentence the massive drop will because of lost confidence not because of BTC futures.