Bitcoin Forum
December 09, 2016, 06:09:26 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: The "steady supply of coins = deflation" argument flaw  (Read 751 times)
marvinmartian
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224



View Profile
July 06, 2011, 02:30:37 PM
 #1

Good to see those threads fall to the wayside now that we're back near $15/btc.  I didn't have time to reply to all of them, but wanted to say this:

     The supply of coin generation is NEAR CONSTANT

So while many people are mining and wanting to get rid of coins to pay for cost, the above part of many deflationary assumptions is seriously flawed.  Also, miners DO wait (I'd guess on the order of a week or so) to sell coins when the market dips.  So there are some minor contractions in "production" based on price level.

Anyhow, I had to get that off my chest.

Bottom line:  BTCs are new.  Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.

"... and the geeks shall inherit the earth."
1481263766
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481263766

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481263766
Reply with quote  #2

1481263766
Report to moderator
1481263766
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481263766

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481263766
Reply with quote  #2

1481263766
Report to moderator
1481263766
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481263766

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481263766
Reply with quote  #2

1481263766
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481263766
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481263766

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481263766
Reply with quote  #2

1481263766
Report to moderator
EskimoBob
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 910


Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank


View Profile
July 06, 2011, 03:03:04 PM
 #2

...

Bottom line:  BTCs are new.  Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.

Why not? Like all other markets, BTC market is driven by greed and fear. Nothing else, nothing more.


While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
marvinmartian
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224



View Profile
July 06, 2011, 03:07:13 PM
 #3

...

Bottom line:  BTCs are new.  Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.

Why not? Like all other markets, BTC market is driven by greed and fear. Nothing else, nothing more.



But what factors into that greed and fear (in terms of measurable time series) is not yet at all well defined.  It's a highly speculative "niche" market where standard rules haven't really applied.

I'm not saying that common sense won't work here.  I'm more saying that the correlations that can sometimes work well in the stock market and economic forecasts ... are not well defined. 

EG., the supply of peanut m&m's may have more of a correlation to BTC prices than anything else.

"... and the geeks shall inherit the earth."
MKW2012
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42


View Profile
July 06, 2011, 03:12:29 PM
 #4

I would agree to the point that greed and fear does play a major role in the day to day price action. Technical analysis is the best way to tell where the volatility of this market will led Bitcoins. IMO
skyhigh
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 142


View Profile
July 06, 2011, 04:03:46 PM
 #5


...

Bottom line:  BTCs are new.  Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.

Why not? Like all other markets, BTC market is driven by greed and fear. Nothing else, nothing more.




Its human behavior. If anyone thinks otherwise it's pure ignorance.
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!