Bottom line: BTCs are new. Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.
Why not? Like all other markets, BTC market is driven by greed and fear. Nothing else, nothing more.
But what factors into that greed and fear (in terms of measurable time series) is not yet at all well defined. It's a highly speculative "niche" market where standard rules haven't really applied.
I'm not saying that common sense won't work here. I'm more saying that the correlations that can sometimes work well in the stock market and economic forecasts ... are not well defined.
EG., the supply of peanut m&m's may have more of a correlation to BTC prices than anything else.