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卡扎菲之子竞选总统 掀不起多大风浪
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Topic: 卡扎菲之子竞选总统 掀不起多大风浪 (Read 41 times)
homewoll
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卡扎菲之子竞选总统 掀不起多大风浪
December 27, 2017, 02:40:12 AM
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日前,已故利比亚前领导人卡扎菲的二儿子赛义夫·卡扎菲通过家族发言人索尔公开放话,称自己有意参加2018年年中举行的利比亚总统选举。
这并不是一个令人有多意外的消息:2017年,在大牢里被关了5年多、一度传闻将被处死或引渡去海牙国际法庭受审的赛义夫被“大赦”,恢复了利比亚公民权。仅3个月后的10月19日,他就在流亡地——黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特高调宣布,自己将“回归利比亚政坛”。
回归源于利比亚太乱
赛义夫回归政坛,和“后卡扎菲时代”利比亚政治局势的混乱息息相关。
众所周知,卡扎菲死后利比亚迅速陷入分崩离析,曾经的“过渡委”战友反目成仇,利比亚国内军阀割据、武装势力肆虐,一些利比亚人开始怀念“至少没弄那么乱”的卡扎菲。
自2014年起,利比亚更出现了“两个政府”的离奇景象:原教旨派支持的国民议会主席萨赫曼拒绝任满卸任,而原是卡扎菲手下大将的哈夫塔尔将军则试图以武力相驱逐。
内战的结果,是利比亚分成了以托布鲁克为中心的“国民代表大会”政府(得到国际社会更多承认,哈夫塔尔支持),和仍以的黎波里为中心的“大国民议会”政府。急于争取更多国内势力支持的托布鲁克当局随后“宽大”了赛义夫,希望借此争取仍然同情卡扎菲家族部落、武装力量的归附。
与此同时,那些曾经强烈反对过卡扎菲政权的国家,如今面对利比亚混乱不堪的局势,也是一筹莫展,这也让看上去不像个强者的赛义夫,有了东山再起的雄心壮志。
今年10月,赛义夫的律师扎伊德曾对外媒表示,赛义夫的回归“将是利比亚人唯一的希望”,“只有卡扎菲家族重新回来管理,利比亚才会恢复和平、稳定和秩序”。很显然,赛义夫是希望趁利比亚一片混乱之际,来一个浑水摸鱼,恢复自己“昔日的好时光”。
未获得大部族支持
问题是,理想很丰满,现实很骨感,不论从哪个角度看,赛义夫都没什么东山再起的可能性。一个重要的因素是,卡扎菲家族及其背后的部落,在利比亚并不是“名门望族”。
卡扎菲家族属于贝都因游牧诸部落中的戈胡斯部落-卡萨斯法家族。卡扎菲当初赢得胜利,并非依靠部落势力,而是靠自己作为职业军官的特殊身份,他组织了一个跨部落、几乎全部由青年军官组成的“自由军官联盟”。
二战后,利比亚被英、法托管者分为昔兰尼加、特里波利塔尼亚和费赞三块,这三块背后都有至少五六个大部族,并不包括卡扎菲家族。卡扎菲家族上台后一味扶植自己的小部落及其同属贝都因系的同盟部落,引发过许多不满。事实上,“卡扎菲之死”在某种程度上也是这种不满的总爆发。目前,赛义夫团队宣称“已获得部落势力的支持”,实在是“含水量”太大的措辞——他最多获得了自己所属小部落的支持而已。
个人能力不足
尽管尚未宣布竞选纲领,但从赛义夫在“重返政坛”后提出的一些政治主张来看,大都是希望国内政治和解、希望联合国协调利比亚恢复稳定、利比亚各阶层合作加强安全等。这些政纲的实现,需要一个利比亚国内各方都能接受、非洲及阿拉伯各国都能“说上话”的人物,这显然并非在国内曾被悬赏追杀和出卖、在国际上至今还被通缉的赛义夫所能负担的。
不仅如此,他的个人形象剔除了“卡扎菲之子”的光辉,也乏善可陈。依靠赛义夫拯救利比亚,恐怕很难。更重要的问题在于,利比亚大多数百姓并不真的怀念“卡扎菲时代”,偶尔嘟囔几句“今不如昔”的,大多还是发泄一下对现实的不满而已,真要让他们回到那个时代,他们多半还是要“谢谢,不”的。
目前,赛义夫只是“宣布有意参选”,他是否敢从避难地冒险回国参选甚至报名且未可知。
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卡扎菲之子竞选总统 掀不起多大风浪
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