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特朗普税改过关 “羊毛”出自哪只羊身上?
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Topic: 特朗普税改过关 “羊毛”出自哪只羊身上? (Read 40 times)
piterlove
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特朗普税改过关 “羊毛”出自哪只羊身上?
December 27, 2017, 03:16:23 AM
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北京时间12月20日,美国参议院投票通过税改议案,该国三十年来最大减税计划距离通过又近一步。最终版本的税改议案在参议院获得51票支持、48票反对,顺利通过。
从美国立法流程来看,特朗普已经扫清税改立法的障碍。笔者认为,这项民意并不高的法案,虽然从表面上来看,与特朗普作为“企业家总统”不无关系,但从税收理论来说,却折射出一个规律:税收最终将由最不灵活、弹性最小的税基所承担。
经济学视野下的税收问题十分复杂,税负公平与效率一直没有精准答案。例如被减税主张者奉为圭臬的著名“拉弗曲线”,实际上只是一个很笼统的概念。简单地说,税率从0-100%,税收总额从零回归到零,“拉弗曲线”必然有一个转折点,在此点之下,即在一定的税率之下,政府的税收随税率的升高而增加,一旦税率的增加越过了这一转折点,政府税收将随税率的进一步提高而减少。但拉弗先生及其追随者并没有给出这个转折点在哪里。
实际上,减税存在“财政幻觉”,即复杂的税制和间接的支付结构导致的财政幻觉,从而导致公众在财税政策选择上出现偏差,实际上税负最终都由纳税人承担。
“拉弗曲线”的最优值是一个不精确的概念,而“财政幻觉”却是一个减税后特朗普必须面对的现实:一方面,美国政府通过减少自身支出的空间已经相当有限。另一方面,“减税幻觉”意味着羊毛始终是要出在羊身上的,只不过是出在哪一只“羊”身上的区别。公司税和家庭所得税减少的同时,劳动者和人们消费的“羊毛”必然多薅一些。这只是时间问题。
这已经反映到了参众两院的投票以及较低民意之上。这次投票结果非常接近,假如剔除特朗普的意志和共和党执政的因素以外,恐怕是另外一种结果。
税改方案将企业所得税税率从35%一次性下调至21%;从公司税率的角度,巩固了美国相对于平均公司税率为22.5%的其他工业化经济体的有利地位。法案也为其他类型的企业和个人提供了一系列暂时性的税收减免,其中包括降低个人所得税率,而这往往有利于高收入者。大多数中产阶层的工人也会得到短期减免,但是独立分析显示数额并不大。
这揭示了税收理论中一个让人沮丧却又不得不接受的规律,尤其是在特朗普税改启动税收竞争模式之后:税收将最终由弹性最小、最不灵活的税基所承担。在开放经济中,相比于商品和劳动者而言,资本通常更具流动性,资本的弹性更大,会“用脚投票”选择税收套利,这意味着资本具有完全弹性时,税负将向劳动者和人们的消费转移,因为这两者流动性较差、弹性较小。
特朗普政府企图以降低公司税率来促进生产性资本提高和税基(资本流入),但这不具有合作性。从税收竞争的角度来看,如果所有国家同样减少他们的公司税率,将失去税收收入,也不会吸引国外资本流入,同时,由此导致的世界范围内投资需求增加将提高利率水平。
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