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人才住房,吸引人才还是托底楼市?
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Topic: 人才住房,吸引人才还是托底楼市? (Read 79 times)
langawon
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人才住房,吸引人才还是托底楼市?
December 28, 2017, 07:06:29 AM
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近期至少有6个二线城市针对人才松绑住房限购。笔者认为,重视人才、服务人才无疑要提倡、鼓励,但这些城市的做法似乎已超出网罗英才、打造城市竞争力的范畴。比如,有的城市将人才扩展至大专甚至中等职业学校毕业生,有的城市提出人才可以低于市价20%的水平买房、租房,有的城市将人才住房与保障房、租赁混为一谈。始于2016年10月的楼市高压调控已持续一年有余,从这个角度看,某些城市有以炒作人才房来托底楼市的嫌疑。
十九大报告明确,住房要回归居住属性,要构建租购并举的住房新制度,实现全体人民住有所居。因此,每个城市设计住房制度时,户籍人口和非户籍人口应一视同仁,人才和一般人群应一视同仁,甚至不该过分区分人才和非人才。但凡在城市居住,并通过就业、纳税或缴纳社保为城市做贡献的人,都应纳入新的住房制度框架。而且,从培育住房租赁,构建租购并举的住房新制度来看,恰恰是非人才范畴的、2.45亿外来人口(或称新市民),才是最该支持的。
延揽人才发展经济,思路上没有问题,但是,城市活力或核心竞争力如何,本质上是人口集聚的结果,关键取决于公共服务和成本。一般商品可以通过现代物流增加供应、降低成本,但公共服务、房价是“本地化”的。人才选择到哪里就业,也要货比三家,即哪里就业机会更好(收入更高),哪里的成本最低(支出更少)。现在来看,大城市尽管就业机会好,收入高,但成本也高,主要体现在房价、子女教育等公共服务、生活费用支出高。因此,近两年收入相对高,但成本更低(或称“性价比高”)的中部二线城市、“新一线城市”成为人才流入重点区域。网调显示,2017年应届毕业生签约“新一线”城市比例与北上广深持平,但希望在“新一线”城市就业的达37.5%,高于一线城市29.9%的水平。近年来,由于高房价、教育高成本(如高价学位房)、各种限制政策挤出外来人口,热点城市餐饮、家政、保安等生产生活和消费服务业价格不断上涨,从而造成人才用脚投票。
但是,2016年以来,二三线城市的房价也开始快速上涨,热点二线城市、都市圈内的三四线城市,房价甚至领涨全国。房价是基础成本,它上涨以后,不仅滞后带动企业或个人租房、餐饮服务、营商成本上升,还有变向驱赶外来低收入人群的负面效应,进而继续拉高生产生活和消费服务业价格。因此,这些城市靠低房价、低成本等优势来吸引人才,前景如何很难预料。相反,如果支持外来人口,特别是低收入人群解决住房问题,公共服务和高房价困局反而能得到缓解。
外来人口和中低收入者大量迁入,不仅降低城市生产生活和消费服务价格,还以更高的边际消费倾向、更大的公共服务成本分摊效应(他们更多使用地铁、公交等大型设施),为城市经济做贡献。甚至,由于人口红利减少,所谓低端产业从业人员,工资并不低,人才和高端产业的薪资也没那么高。通过租赁,外来人群和低收入人群在城市稳定下来,三五年后他们中的一些人也会去买房,他们不仅是需求主力,也是有效需求,从而成为房价和实体经济的稳定器。炒作人才住房显示地方托底楼市的动机不减。近日,中央政治局会议提出加快住房制度改革和长效机制建设,唯有此,才能解决激励不相容,地方以各种钻空子消解调控的问题,避免调控再次陷入轮回。
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