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Author Topic: 90 minutes to next retarget?  (Read 2617 times)
MaGNeT
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July 06, 2011, 08:46:56 PM
 #21

1 block remaining  Shocked
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sadpandatech
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July 06, 2011, 08:47:38 PM
 #22

If you had really wanted to guess right: (14 days / actual number of days,minutes,seconds) * old difficulty


Which is what the tool I was using does. The guess part was being able to determine the actual 'days, mins, seconds' before the last block was found. Which is near impossible to get exact due to variance on each individual block.

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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July 06, 2011, 10:36:42 PM
 #23

Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.

It's actually going to be around 13%.

As I said, I didn't really keep proper track of the exact times for retargets. 13% = 14/12.39; so you can see how there is a margin for error when one does not keep decimal places. The difference between 13% and 17% is marginal, 1.55mil vs 1.6mil, and it will likely fall somewhere in between. The point is that if you do have the available data you don't need to guess.

Everyone was between 1.55 and 1.6. That's called guessing.

The timing and the network hash rate constantly change. People generally know where it will hit. People are guessing within that range.

You told people to stop guessing, ran the numbers and were way off, then said it's between 1.55 and 1.6. No kidding, that's the guessing part. Like I said, 13% (ended up being 13.3ish).

Again, I said it's not a GUESS if you are using the proper data, which I only had approximately. The OP suggested 1.9 mil, which was way out of boundaries. If you want to guess at a fraction of a percent that's fine, though the applicable difference is nil. My numbers were not way off, show in what way they were? In most real world applications 10% is considered inconsequential, 4% even more so. I suggested how sloppy my own numbers were, and how I was going to be close despite that, and I was.

1.6mil vs 1.564 is 2.3% difference. Wowsers trowsers I was WAY OFF. Or not...?
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July 07, 2011, 06:26:37 PM
 #24

1.9M is called pulling a random number out of your arse.
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