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Author Topic: 90 minutes to next retarget?  (Read 2616 times)
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July 06, 2011, 06:36:49 PM
 #1

Blockexplorer shows about 5000 seconds left until next difficulty.

Think it will be closer to 1.5M or 1.9M ?  My guess is 1.9M

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July 06, 2011, 06:41:03 PM
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My guess is 1563340.

We'll see how close I am...  Wink
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July 06, 2011, 06:41:10 PM
 #3

Blockexplorer shows about 5000 seconds left until next difficulty.

Think it will be closer to 1.5M or 1.9M ?  My guess is 1.9M

~1.6 imo.
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July 06, 2011, 06:43:56 PM
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1,782,439
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July 06, 2011, 06:49:35 PM
 #5

My guess is 1563340.

We'll see how close I am...  Wink


hehe, 1'563'415.74   is my guess

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
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July 06, 2011, 07:03:55 PM
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I predict 1,563,739. Wink

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July 06, 2011, 07:05:27 PM
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You guys guessing what block explorer shows as next retarget, strong guesswork~

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July 06, 2011, 07:06:52 PM
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You guys guessing what block explorer shows as next retarget, strong guesswork~

If all were using same method to 'guess' a number one would assume if it was on the same block the numbers would all be much, much closer.

I used a tool for mine, but it certainly wasn't block explorer.

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
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July 06, 2011, 07:12:03 PM
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You guys guessing what block explorer shows as next retarget, strong guesswork~

If all were using same method to 'guess' a number one would assume if it was on the same block the numbers would all be much, much closer.

I used a tool for mine, but it certainly wasn't block explorer.

Guess we'll find out in a little while.

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July 06, 2011, 07:41:02 PM
 #10

Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.
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July 06, 2011, 07:46:06 PM
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Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.

It's actually going to be around 13%.
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July 06, 2011, 07:48:55 PM
 #12

Significantly, unless there's a mining boom in the next couple weeks, the next retarget after this one could be the first difficulty drop in quite some time (though it would probably be a fairly small drop).

Vires In Numeris.
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July 06, 2011, 07:51:01 PM
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Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.

It's actually going to be around 13%.

As I said, I didn't really keep proper track of the exact times for retargets. 13% = 14/12.39; so you can see how there is a margin for error when one does not keep decimal places. The difference between 13% and 17% is marginal, 1.55mil vs 1.6mil, and it will likely fall somewhere in between. The point is that if you do have the available data you don't need to guess.
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July 06, 2011, 08:07:15 PM
 #14

Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.


the guessing part comes in on what timestemp that last block rolls in on...
While, yes the margin is very small it is none the less amusing for those of us who are easily ammused to try and speculate what time the new difficulty will come in.

Last 133056 24/06/2011 11:45 is the last time stamp if you want to plug it into your math....

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
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July 06, 2011, 08:15:35 PM
 #15

Well, 13-17% increase will be a welcome change from the two prior 50%+ changes.

How long does it take blockexplorer to get the newest one?

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July 06, 2011, 08:19:26 PM
 #16

Well, 13-17% increase will be a welcome change from the two prior 50%+ changes.

Looks like it is: 1379192.2882281
  def a welcome change to see it not friggin 50%

1 more blk to go. 1'562'245.69

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
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July 06, 2011, 08:37:19 PM
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  def a welcome change to see it not friggin 50%

1 more blk to go. 1'562'245.69

close: 1,563,027.9961162

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July 06, 2011, 08:39:14 PM
 #18

New difficulty = 1,564,057
Change in difficulty = +13%

HashPeak - GPU mining hashrate peak detector
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July 06, 2011, 08:39:43 PM
 #19

Why do you need to guess what the value is? The value is not some magical genie. It's mathematically calculated. It's been something along the lines of 12 days since the last retarget, 14/12 = ~1.17, so a 17% increase.


1379223*1.17 = ~1.6mil.

If I had been keeping track more efficiently of the times I'd have a better estimate, but that will be very close.

Now what there IS to wonder about is if we'll ever see retractions from all the doom and gloom crowd that have been predicting dire death and doom to us all, 50% difficulty increases every difficulty change every time without fail no matter what! I mean, the last few times it was 50% so obviously it will keep going forever.
As well as the dire price death of bitcoin, it dropped down to $11! So obviously it will never go back up again.

It's actually going to be around 13%.

As I said, I didn't really keep proper track of the exact times for retargets. 13% = 14/12.39; so you can see how there is a margin for error when one does not keep decimal places. The difference between 13% and 17% is marginal, 1.55mil vs 1.6mil, and it will likely fall somewhere in between. The point is that if you do have the available data you don't need to guess.

Everyone was between 1.55 and 1.6. That's called guessing.

The timing and the network hash rate constantly change. People generally know where it will hit. People are guessing within that range.

You told people to stop guessing, ran the numbers and were way off, then said it's between 1.55 and 1.6. No kidding, that's the guessing part. Like I said, 13% (ended up being 13.3ish).
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July 06, 2011, 08:44:14 PM
 #20

If you had really wanted to guess right: (14 days / actual number of days,minutes,seconds) * old difficulty

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