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美元怎么了?全球都在抛售 将创10年来首次两年连跌
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Topic: 美元怎么了?全球都在抛售 将创10年来首次两年连跌 (Read 94 times)
yuyuchain
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美元怎么了?全球都在抛售 将创10年来首次两年连跌
December 30, 2017, 06:49:28 AM
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凤凰国际iMarkets消息 本周六(12月30日),彭博发布针对美元的调查预估中值,到2018年底美元指数料将从当前水平下滑大约2%。今年,在美国收益率曲线扁平化、经济增幅已然触顶的担忧之下,美元已经大跌了9.7%。
报道称,美元前景可不太妙。大多数分析师预计美元的艰难走势将会持续。
美元指数年度变化
“下跌似乎是美元面临的阻力最小的一条路,”多伦多道明银行驻伦敦外汇战略欧洲主管Ned Rumpeltin表示。他预计,欧元兑美元年底前将攀升至1.27,为2014年10月以来的新高。周五伦敦时间14:41,欧元上涨0.39%,报1.1989美元,此前一度触及1.9999,为9月8日以来的最高水平。
美元指数下跌0.33%,报92.30。基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌1个基点,报2.43%,12月20日一度攀升2.5%,至3月份以来的最高水平。虽然美债收益率高于欧洲债券收益率,但对投资者而言意义不大,他们的关注重点在于,欧元区经济加速增长,而美国却在失去动能。
美元兑欧元2017年势将创出2003年以来的最糟糕表现,今年美联储不仅收紧了货币政策,还暗示将于2018年进一步加息三次。如果指数今年再度收跌,将是2007年以来首次出现连跌两年的走势。关注非农美国总统特朗普成功推动税收改革,但几乎完全没有提升美元的吸引力。
3个月欧元兑美元基差互换图
持仓数据显示,2017年下半年的多数时间美元仓位都为净空仓。市场等待观察特朗普的税改能否刺激经济,基本面仍然是关注焦点。
1月的第一周,将有一系列的经济指标迎接交易员,其中包括美国劳工部的月度非农数据。下周美联储还将公布12月12-13日的政策会议纪要,在该次会议上,美联储官员们年内第三次上调了基准利率。道明银行的Rumpeltin表示,非农将定下主要的基调,随着市场参与人士的回归,它将对市场构成影响。随着美元失去年底融资需求这一关键支撑,下周可能将继续承压。
本月早些时候,投资者对美元的需求为其提供助益,但最终这一需求如普遍预期一般转瞬即逝。3个月欧元/美元的基差互换直到近期还显示,银行为把欧元兑换为美元支付近六年以来的最高溢价,但本周此种状况出现扭转,加剧了美元的跌幅。道明银行的Rumpeltin说,这个三个月期指标已经走高。“因此年关之际融资压力大体减轻,至少市场当中的这一块是如此,当然下周将会完全消失。”
关注要点:
美国经济数据:Markit制造业PMI(1月2日)、ISM制造业指数、抵押贷款和建筑业数据(1月3日)
ADP就业变动、Markit服务业PMI、综合PMI(1月4日)
非农就业人数、工厂订单、耐用品、贸易账(1月5日)
美联储公布12月会议纪要(1月3日)
美联储的Bullard(1月4日)、Harker和Mester(1月5日)分别发表演讲
欧盟多数主要经济体以及欧元区整体的制造业、服务业和综合PMI
欧盟多数主要经济体以及欧元区整体的制造业、服务业和综合PMI
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