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东风17四大优势无可比拟, 但客观来说要拦截它也不太难
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东风17四大优势无可比拟, 但客观来说要拦截它也不太难
December 30, 2017, 06:55:00 AM
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近日,《外交家》杂志网站的一篇报道引发世界舆论的广泛关注。报道引述官方消息称,解放军在11月1日和15日分别进行了机密的弹道导弹测试,美方认为这2次试射不是单纯的弹道导弹,而是弹头(载荷段)改为“高超音速滑翔飞行器”的东风-16导弹。美方相信新导弹的编号可能是东风-17,而连续2次试射显示该导弹即将服役,并将成为世界上首种量产的高超音速滑翔武器。
所谓的“高超音速滑翔武器”指得是以火箭为动力的导弹,在推进火箭脱离后,弹头并不是传统的依拋物线(弹道)飞向目标,而是立即俯冲回到大气层顶端,以4马赫以上的高超音速向目标“滑翔”。美国估计东风-17这2次试射的滑翔距离在1400千米左右,高度则在60千米以下。这种设计具有以下四大优点:
第一,将弹道高度从200千米以上降低到60千米以下,这将直接压缩雷达的探测距离。例如台湾的“铺路爪”雷达原本可看到1800千米外的弹道导弹,弹道压低后的探测距离随即缩短为1000千米。
第二,“宙斯盾”系统与“标准”3反导拦截弹是目前拦截高度最大、防御范围最广的战区弹道防御系统,但由于“标准”3导弹仅能拦截大气层以上的目标,在大气层顶端滑翔的高超音速飞行器就无法被它拦截,也就躲过了美日在西太平洋射程最远的反弹道导弹系统。
美国空军的HTV-2高超音速滑翔飞行器在2010与2011年2次试射失败,由上图数据可发现HTV-2在7000千米的滑翔过程中,会从20马赫逐渐下降到7马赫,而下图数据则显示其高度从50千米下降到30千米
第三,高超音速滑翔弹头可利用空气升力做出高G转向动作,除了瞄准的目标区更大外,对方也无法预测其真正的落点,增加末段弹道导弹防御系统的拦截难度。
第四,由于可以气动力持续修正航线,配合卫星导航系统可达到极高的精确度。又因为距离地面的距离较近,雷达导引头扫描地面或海面的所需功率较小,可能足以作为打击(航母等)移动目标的打击之用。至于高超音速穿过空气的“黑障”现象可用某些方式降低,或等弹体速度下降并更接近目标区时才启动雷达。
不过,高超音速滑翔武器并非是不可拦截的,这是美国在上世纪60年代一度放弃发展的因素之一。例如美国在韩国部署的“萨德”系统可拦截高度40千米以上的目标,洛·马公司就宣称其已具有高超音速滑翔武器的拦截能力,并游说政府发展增程版“萨德”以扩展拦截范围
另一方面,由于高超音速滑翔器的末端速度会降低到4-6马赫,美国曾估计具有4马赫极速的前苏联萨姆-4导弹就有击落高超音速滑翔器的可能,虽然这高估了萨姆-4的能耐(后来的数据显示其极速仅有3马赫)。
但美国人的结论显示,极速超过4马赫的现代反弹道导弹(例如S-300系列、“爱国者”3型、红旗-9等)都有机会拦截高超音速滑翔器。当然,这需要强大的预警体系支撑。
可以说,东风-17的量产仅是“矛与盾”斗争的开始,而非结束。
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